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The real economy had also shown some signs of an approaching downturn, however.
但實體經濟也顯示出一些衰退即將來臨的跡象。
Business confidence had soured and the housing market, so often a leading indicator of economic trouble, had sagged.
商業信心已下降，住房市場（通常是經濟問題的先行指標）也已下跌。
At the start of 2019 came more bad news, as a lengthy partial federal-government shutdown depressed both output and consumer sentiment.
2019年年初又傳來了更多的壞消息，由于部分聯邦政府長期停罷，產出和消費者信心都受到壓制。
The economy had been expected to cool a little anyway, as the impetus from the Trump administration's fiscal stimulus faded.
隨著特朗普政府財政刺激動因的消失，不管怎樣，經濟有望稍微降溫。
The fear that a soft landing might turn into a hard one did not seem far-fetched.
對軟性經濟滑坡可能變成硬著陸的擔憂并非牽強。
Jesse Edgerton, an economist at JPMorgan Chase, says there are still reasons to be cautious, notably weak business confidence.
摩根大通公司的經濟學家Jesse Edgerton表示，仍有理由保持謹慎，尤其是疲弱的商業信心。
But more recent data have looked rosier. Sentiment among consumers has rebounded.
但更多的近期數據看起來更加樂觀。消費者信心已回彈。
Jobs growth in March recovered from a hiccup in February (April's figures are due on May 3rd, after The Economist went to press).
3月就業率從2月的短暫下跌中恢復（4月的數據將在5月3日《經濟學人》出版后公布）。
And although GDP growth of 3.2% in the first quarter hid some softening components, recent trends suggest that they will bounce back.
雖然第一季度GDP 3.2%的增長隱藏了一些疲軟因素，但近期趨勢表明它們將再次回彈。
Investors in the stockmarket seem to have forgotten the whole scare,
股市投資者似乎已經忘記了整個恐慌，
and to believe that the economy will grow fast enough to produce profits but not so fast that the Fed will have to intervene.
并且他們相信經濟將迅速增長并足以產生利潤，但卻不足以快到讓美聯儲進行干預。
Investors in government debt seem warier. They are still betting that the Fed will cut interest rates at least once by the end of the year.
政府債務投資者似乎比較謹慎。他們仍打賭美聯儲將在今年年底至少減息一次。
For now, the Fed has decided to sit tight. Since the stockmarket wobbles late last year, a different difficulty has become much more obvious.
目前，美聯儲已經決定按兵不動。自去年年底股市動亂以來，一個不同的困難已經變得更加明顯了。
Inflation, which the Fed had expected to hover around 2%, fell to just 1.6% in March,
3月的通貨膨脹（美聯儲希望膨脹徘徊在2%左右）跌至僅1.6%，
based on a measure that excludes (volatile) food and energy prices.
以一種不包括（揮發性）食物和能源價格在內的測量方法為基礎進行測量。
On May 1st Mr Powell said that he saw good reasons to expect it to be "transitory".
5月1日，鮑威爾先生表示他有充分的理由認為這只是“暫時的”。
But that is not the behaviour expected of an economy that is humming along nicely.
但這并不是一個運行良好的經濟體應有的行為。
It is a better problem for the Fed to face than an imminent recession—but it is a problem, all the same.
對美聯儲來說，這是一個比即將到來的衰退更好的問題—但它仍是一個問題。
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