評(píng)論
打印
It is possible that population is destiny, other things equal, but other things are never equal.
如果其他事物都不發(fā)生變化，那么人口或許就是命運(yùn)，但是其他事物不可能不變。
And so a plague here, or a fateful decision by a Chinese emperor there, can set a region down a path that wipes out the advantages of population.
這里一場瘟疫或是那里中國皇帝的一個(gè)重大決定便可以決定一個(gè)國家的道路，這條道路可能會(huì)消除人口的優(yōu)勢。
Perhaps those advantages must be harnessed by the right sorts of institutions,
或許那些優(yōu)勢必須被正確的制度或包容的文化
or an accommodating culture—which take far longer to develop or adopt than technologies do to emerge.
加以利用—發(fā)展或采用這些制度或文化所需時(shí)間比技術(shù)涌現(xiàn)所需時(shí)間更久。
There is no academic consensus regarding what determines economic fortunes over long time horizons, important though the question is.
關(guān)于從長遠(yuǎn)來看是什么決定了經(jīng)濟(jì)命運(yùn)還沒有達(dá)成學(xué)術(shù)共識(shí)，雖然這個(gè)問題很重要。
Alternatively, one might argue that conditions have changed in ways that amplify the power of population.
或者有人認(rèn)為條件變化的方式放大了人口的力量。
A billion brains seem a more economically potent force in an era of mass education, in contrast to the mass illiteracy that prevailed in the past.
和過去大批文盲盛行的時(shí)代相比，在大眾教育時(shí)代，十億人在經(jīng)濟(jì)上的力量似乎更加強(qiáng)大。
But crucially, Asia's recent rise has not been the result of a spurt of indigenous innovation given its impetus by the size of its population.
但關(guān)鍵是，鑒于其人口規(guī)模的動(dòng)因，亞洲的近期增長并非是自主創(chuàng)新沖刺的結(jié)果，
Rather, it has happened as part of a wave of globalisation, which aided the transfer of technological know-how.
而是全球化浪潮的一部分，這種全球化浪潮協(xié)助了技術(shù)專門技能的轉(zhuǎn)移。
Openness to exchanges of goods and ideas, or indeed to immigration, is not an immutable parameter,
對(duì)商品交換和想法交流或?qū)ν鈦硪泼竦拈_放態(tài)度不是一個(gè)不可改變的參數(shù)，
but subject to change based on human preferences.
但卻會(huì)受到人類偏好變化的支配。
Mr Desmet and his co-authors reckon that eliminating all barriers to migration would raise global welfare threefold—
Desmet先生和他的共著者們認(rèn)為消除所有移民障礙將會(huì)讓全球福利增長三倍—
an extraordinary figure that reflects yawning differences in output per person between countries, and the unrealised human potential they represent.
這是一個(gè)非凡的數(shù)字，反映了國家和他們所代表的未實(shí)現(xiàn)的人才潛能之間人均實(shí)際產(chǎn)出的巨大差異。
As intriguing as it is to consider the directions in which macro variables such as population or GDP are likely to nudge the world in coming centuries,
研究在未來幾世紀(jì)人口或GDP等宏變量將推動(dòng)世界朝哪個(gè)方向前進(jìn)很有趣，
it is human decisions that will determine which places and people are given the opportunity to become rich.
賦予哪些地方和哪些人致富的機(jī)遇是由人類決策所決定的。
National populations matter to the extent that borders do.
國家人口和邊界的重要性相當(dāng)。
It is a depressing notion, but a plausible one, that in half a millennium's time they will matter still.
這是一個(gè)令人沮喪的觀念，但也是一個(gè)看似合理的觀念，在半個(gè)世紀(jì)中，它們?nèi)匀缓苤匾?/p>
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