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Investors started the year brooding about the risk of an American recession.
年初，投資者就對美國經濟衰退的風險憂心忡忡。
Torsten Slok of Deutsche Bank, Germany's biggest lender, says clients around the globe were worried.
德國最大銀行德意志銀行的Torsten Slok表示全球客戶都在擔憂。
Financial indicators were flashing red, the stockmarket was weak and yields on low-grade corporate debt had jumped.
金融指標亮紅燈，股市疲軟并且低評級公司債券的收益率大幅上升。
The Federal Reserve's decision to raise interest rates in December had been unsurprising, but unwelcome.
12月，美聯儲加息的決定雖不令人吃驚，但也不受歡迎。
At the end of the year a model from economists at JPMorgan Chase had put the chances of a recession within 12 months,
年底，摩根大通公司經濟學家的一個模型將經濟衰退的可能性設定在了12個月內，
based on the S&P 500 index and corporate-credit spreads, at 65%. But the mood has now improved.
這一模型是基于標準普爾500指數和公司信貸差計算，這一比例為65%。但這種情緒現在已經改善。
By April 29th JPMorgan's model was putting the chances of a recession at just 15%.
至4月29日，摩根大通的模型認為衰退可能性僅為15%。
"It's eye-popping how quickly the narrative has changed," says Mr Slok.
Slok先生稱：“故事變化之快令人瞠目結舌。”
One reason for the improvement in sentiment is the Fed's evolving monetary-policy stance.
投資者信心改善的原因之一就是美聯儲逐步演化的貨幣政策立場
In January it turned more doveish, abandoning its plans to raise rates in 2019.
今年1月，美聯儲變得更加溫和，它放棄了2019年加息的計劃。
"We don't see any evidence at all of overheating," said Jerome Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, on May 1st
5月1日，美聯儲主席杰羅米·鮑威爾表示，“我們沒有看到任何過熱的跡象，”
after announcing that the Fed would maintain its patient stance. He also repeated his view that the data do not warrant higher rates.
此前他剛宣布美聯儲將保持耐心。他還重復了自己的觀點—數據不能保證更高的利率。
Investors have been delighted by the Fed's pause. But the timing and extent of their change of mood suggests that is not the full story.
投資者對美聯儲的暫停感到高興。但是他們情緒改善的時機和程度表明這不是故事的全部內容。
One possibility is that their previous gloom may have been overblown.
一種可能性是他們之前的悲觀情緒被夸大了。
"The market collapse in December was driven by the calendar," says Catherine Mann of Citigroup, a bank, as investors repositioned for tax purposes.
“12月的市場不景氣是由日歷所驅使的，” 花旗集團的凱瑟琳·曼說到，因為投資者為了稅收的目的而重新定位。
The "inverted yield curve"—that is, yields on long-term bonds below those on short-term ones,
“反向收益率曲線”—即長期債券的收益率低于短期債券，
historically a sign that a recession is on the way— has been ringing alarm bells recently.
從歷史上看，這是衰退即將來臨的征兆—近期敲響了警鐘。
But Ms Mann doubts its continued predictive power after a long period in which central-bank intervention depressed interest rates.
但曼女士懷疑在中央銀行進行長時間的干預后，其持續的預測能力壓制住了利率。
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