評論
打印
Puzzlingly low core inflation is not solely a European problem. America has seen it too.
令人困惑的是，低迷的核心通貨膨脹問題不僅僅存在于歐洲。美國也一樣。
Indeed, the Federal Reserve's experience of tightening policy should caution the ECB against ending stimulus too soon.
確實，美聯儲緊縮政策的經歷應該給ECB敲響警鐘，警惕過早地停止刺激。
When America's rate-setters halted their quantitative-easing programme in 2014,
2014年當美國的利率制定者停止了他們的“量化寬松”計劃時，
they put the long-term unemployment rate—towards which joblessness can fall without pushing up inflation—at 5.2-5.5%.
他們預計長期失業率—失業可以在不增加通貨膨脹的情況下下降—會在5.2%到5.5%之間。
But since then unemployment has fallen much further without sharp price rises.
但自那時起，失業率已經在沒有出現價格猛漲的情況下進一步下降。
The Fed learnt that the economy had more room to expand safely than it expected; in hindsight, it could probably have kept interest rates lower for longer.
美聯儲了解到，相較預期而言，經濟有著更大的安全發展空間；事后，它或許會將利率長期維持在更低水平。
Recent statements by Mr Draghi and his colleagues, however, suggest that the ECB will stick to its plan for now.
但德拉吉先生及同事的近期聲明表明ECB將暫時堅持自己的計劃。
It sees the growth slowdown as modest, and a pickup in core inflation as imminent.
它認為增長放緩是適度的，并且核心通貨膨脹的好轉即將來臨。
Mr Benito reckons, however, that disappointing data releases in coming months could eventually prompt a rethink.
但貝尼托先生認為未來幾個月發布的數據令人失望且最終會促使他們重新審視。
If it does decide to loosen policy, the ECB will not find it easy to extend quantitative-easing.
如果ECB確要決定放松政策，那么它將發現擴展量化寬松并不容易。
The central bank's holdings of German bonds is nearing its self-imposed limit of a third of a member's debt stock.
央行所持的德國債券幾近成員國債務股三分之一的自我限度。
Instead, policymakers would probably guide markets to expect a further delay before interest rates rise.
相反，決策者或許將指導市場期望在利率增長前有一次進一步的延期。
This comes with its own problem, however: Mr Draghi is leaving in October 2019, and his successor may have different ideas.
但這樣也存在問題：德拉吉先生將于2019年10月離職，他的接班人或許會有不同的想法。
ECB-watchers think another option may be an extension to its targeted long-term repo operations,
歐洲央行觀察家認為另一個選擇或許是延長其目標長期購回債券操作，
which offer banks cheap funding in return for lending to households and firms. That would benefit Italian banks most.
這將為銀行提供低成本資金以換取房屋和公司借貸。意大利銀行將成為最大受益者。
They are heavy users of the scheme and the stand-off with Brussels has pushed up their borrowing costs.
他們是該計劃的重度使用者，與比利時的僵局已經抬高了他們的借貸成本。
But to help them would be to ease the market pressure on Italy that might otherwise encourage fiscal rectitude.
但幫助他們就是要緩和意大利的市場壓力，或許能鼓勵財政清廉。
The agony of setting monetary policy only gets worse when politics comes into play.
當政治登場時，制定貨幣政策的痛苦只會愈演愈烈。
譯文由可可原創，僅供學習交流使用，未經許可請勿轉載。
