評(píng)論
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Central banking can be agonising. The effect of monetary policy on the economy is not immediate,
中央銀行可能很痛苦。貨幣政策對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響并非即刻見效，
so decisions must be based on expectations for two years' time. That means putting faith in forecasts that could well turn out to be wrong.
因此必須根據(jù)對(duì)未來兩年的預(yù)期來做決策。這意味著要對(duì)那些可能是錯(cuò)誤的預(yù)測(cè)有信心。
Some soul-searching might be expected at the monetary-policy meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) on December 13th.
或許有望在12月13日的歐洲中央銀行（ECB）貨幣政策會(huì)議上進(jìn)行一些深刻反思。
Since 2015 it has stimulated the euro-zone economy by buying bonds worth 2.6trn euros ($3trn) under its quantitative-easing programme.
自2015年以來，該行通過其“量化寬松”計(jì)劃購(gòu)入了價(jià)值26000億歐元（30000億美元）的債券以刺激歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)。
In June it said it planned to stop asset purchases by the end of the year (though it will continue to reinvest proceeds from maturing bonds),
6月該行表示計(jì)劃于年底停止資產(chǎn)收購(gòu)（雖然它會(huì)繼續(xù)將到期債券的收益用于再投資），
and to keep interest rates at their current rock-bottom levels "through the summer" of 2019.
并且2019整個(gè)夏季的利率將維持在目前的最低水平。
Since then, though, economic growth has slowed and inflation, stripped of oil-price rises, has stayed resolutely low.
雖然自那時(shí)起，經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)已經(jīng)放緩，且通貨膨脹（除石油價(jià)格在增長(zhǎng)）已維持在絕對(duì)的低水平。
The question is how persistent these developments will be.
問題是這些進(jìn)展將會(huì)維持多久呢。
After an impressive showing in 2017, the euro zone's economy has weakened. Temporary factors bear some of the blame.
自2017年的那一次驚艷表現(xiàn)后，歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)疲軟。臨時(shí)因素要承擔(dān)部分責(zé)任。
Poor weather, strikes and a bad flu season marred the start of the year.
年初就遭遇了惡劣的天氣、罷工以及糟糕的流感季。
Then in the third quarter of 2018 output was 0.2% higher than in the second, the slowest growth since 2014.
然后2018年第三季度的產(chǎn)出比第二季度高0.2%，這是自2014年以來最為緩慢的增長(zhǎng)。
New emissions tests in September meant carmakers put production on hold while they rushed to certify their stock of vehicles.
9月新的尾氣測(cè)試意味著在汽車制造商們急著證明自己的車輛庫(kù)存時(shí)，他們的生產(chǎn)將被擱置。
As a result, in the third quarter the German economy— the bloc's powerhouse—contracted for the first time in nearly four years.
因此，在第三季度，德國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)—?dú)W元區(qū)的強(qiáng)國(guó)—近四年來首次萎縮。
In 2017 trade provided a welcome boost to the euro zone.
2017年貿(mào)易為歐元區(qū)提供了喜人的增長(zhǎng)。
This year demand for exports has moderated, dampening growth, most notably in Germany and Italy.
今年對(duì)出口商品的需求緩和，增長(zhǎng)受到抑制，這在德國(guó)和意大利尤為顯著。
Domestic demand has picked up some of the slack, particularly in France and Spain. But it has not fully offset the effects of the trade slowdown on the bloc.
國(guó)內(nèi)需求有所恢復(fù)，尤其是在法國(guó)和西班牙。但是這不足以抵消歐元區(qū)內(nèi)貿(mào)易放緩的影響。
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