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Progress in talks on the North American Free-Trade Agreement would also be good news.
北美自由貿易協(xié)定談話中所取得的進展也是好消息。
But BHP, the world's biggest miner, issued a blunt assessment of the longer-term dangers to its products
但8月21日，在其前景年終總結中
during its otherwise promising year-end results on August 21st.
世界最大的礦業(yè)公司必和必拓公司發(fā)布了一份商品更長期危害評估。
It said protectionism was "exceedingly unhelpful" for broad-based global growth,
它表示貿易保護主義對基礎廣泛的全球增長是“極其無益的”，
adding that Sino-American trade tensions could weaken both countries' GDP growth by a quarter to three-quarters of a percentage point, absent counter-measures.
它還說道，由于缺乏對策，中美貿易緊張會將對兩國GDP增長造成從四分之一個百分至四分之三個百分點的削減。
Both America and China imposed another tranche of tariffs, on a further $16bn-worth of each other's goods, on August 23rd.
8月23日，中美兩國相互對價值160億美元的商品增加一輪關稅。
Analysts point to two main ways in which these tensions hurt commodity prices.
分析師指出了這些緊張會對商品價格造成影響的兩種主要方式。
The first is because of the rising importance of emerging markets to demand.
第一是由于新興市場對需求的重要性在不斷增長。
In a report in June, the World Bank calculated that almost all the growth in the past 20 years in global metal consumption,
在今年6月份的報告中，世界銀行估算，過去20年中全球金屬消耗的所有增長、
two thirds of the increase in energy demand and two-fifths of the rise in food consumption came from seven countries:
能源需求2/3的增長以及食物消耗2/5的增長都來自7個國家：
Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia and Turkey.
巴西、中國、印度、印尼、墨西哥、俄羅斯以及土耳其。
This group now exceeds the Group of Seven industrial nations in consumption of coal and all base and precious metals,
這七個國家如今在碳、基底金屬、稀有金屬以及大米、小麥和大豆消耗方面
as well as of rice, wheat and soyabeans. Commodity prices are therefore far more sensitive to these countries' fortunes than they used to be.
超過了西方七個工業(yè)大國集團。所以商品價格對這些國家的命運而言要比以往更加敏感。
Hence their walloping last week when the plunging Turkish lira gave a shock to other fragile currencies.
因此當土耳其里拉暴跌，他們所受的打擊讓其他脆弱的貨幣為之震顫。
The second is speculation. Ole Hansen, head of commodities strategy at Saxo Bank, says that
第二個是投機。盛寶銀行商品戰(zhàn)略主管奧勒·漢森表示
fears of a trade war have clobbered prices of the most globally traded commodities, notably copper, as short positions by speculators have surged.
對貿易戰(zhàn)爭的恐懼打擊了大部分全球貿易商品價格，尤其是銅，因為投機者的空頭激增。
China accounts for half the world's demand for copper, the same share as its consumption of steel.
中國的銅需求占全球銅需求的一半，與其鋼鐵消耗份額一樣。
Yet steel prices have fared much better because the most liquid steel contract is in China,
而鋼鐵價格進展更加順利，因為大部分鋼水合約都在中國，
which is much more affected by domestic supply and demand factors than big global bets.
其更多的是受國內供應于需求的影響而非全球押注的影響。
A steel-futures contract in Shanghai touched a seven-year high on August 22nd.
8月22日，上海一份鋼材期貨交易合同創(chuàng)7年新高。
As ever, demand from China remains the biggest swing factor for commodities.
中國需求如往常一樣仍是商品最大的浮動因素。
BHP reckons China will use fiscal and monetary expansion to help offset the impact to its exports from the trade conflict,
BHP認為中國將利用財政及貨幣擴張幫助抵消貿易沖突對其出口的影響，
which could benefit commodities. But even if the worst is now priced in, plenty of volatility lies ahead.
而商品也將獲益。但即便現(xiàn)在最糟糕的一面已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)，前方還有很多波動。
As Mr Seifried quips from the cornfields of Nebraska, "predicting the future is a son of a bitch".
正如賽弗里德在內布拉斯加州的玉米地里嘲弄，“預測未來是個狗雜種”。
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