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Finance and Economics
財經
North Korean Data: Best Guesses
朝鮮數據：最佳猜測
Creative ways of measuring the North Korean economy.
測算朝鮮經濟的創新方法
FACTS about the North Korean economy are not so much alternative as non-existent.
關于朝鮮經濟的真相與其說是另類的，不如說是不真實。
The country has never published a statistical yearbook.
該國從未公布過一份統計年鑒。
If it did, no one would believe it.
如果有，也沒有人會相信。
Nicholas Eberstadt of the American Enterprise Institute, a think-tank, calls analysis of its economy “essentially pre-quantitative”.
美國企業研究所的智囊團Nicholas Eberstad稱，該國的經濟分析“基本上是預先定量分析”。
The most-cited estimate of the size of the economy comes from South Korea’s central bank.
被引用最多的朝鮮經濟規模的數據來自于韓國央行。
Its methodology is opaque but is based, at least in part, on the South Korean intelligence agency’s estimates of the North’s physical output, which is then translated to South Korean prices.
其方法晦澀難懂，但至少有一部分是基于韓國的情報單位對朝鮮的實物產出所估計的，然后轉換成韓國的價格。
But it is hard to estimate market valuations for goods that are not traded on the market, and physical goods make up only a fraction of overall economic output.
但是，不在市場上進行貿易的貨物的市場價值卻難以估測，并且實物商品僅僅占據總經濟產出的一部分。
Another technique is to “mirror” statistics from the country’s trading partners.
另一種技術是根據朝鮮貿易伙伴的的數據進行鏡像研究。
But most North Korean trade is with China, where statistics are unreliable.
但是，朝鮮的絕大多數貿易是與中國進行的，其中的數據也不可信。
The advent of satellite imaging has helped, providing researchers with better estimates of manufacturing output, coal production and urbanisation.
衛星圖像的出現頗有幫助，為研究制造業產量，煤炭生產和城鎮化提供了更好地估測數據。
Yet another strategy is to work out national income from non-economic data.
另一種策略是從非經濟數據中算出國民收入。
The Hyundai Research Institute, a consultancy, publishes another widely cited estimate of the North Korean economy based on a model that incorporates both infant-mortality rates and crop yields, two variables for which the numbers are at least plausible.
現代經濟研究所，一家咨詢機構，發布了另一項被廣泛引用的朝鮮經濟估測數據，這項估計由嬰兒死亡率和糧食產量這兩項至少算可靠的變量組成。
A recent paper by Suk Lee of the Korea Development Institute, a South Korean government think-tank, puts a new spin on this approach.
韓國開發研究院（韓國政府的智囊團）李碩最近發表的論文重新闡釋了這種方法。
It estimates North Korea’s national income by comparing the share of its households that use solid fuels for cooking with that in other lower-income countries.
該方法通過比較朝鮮與其他國家的家庭做飯用固體燃料所占比例來估算朝鮮的國民收入。
The data, as reported by the North Korean census of 2008, show that nearly 93% of households lack access to gas or electricity and rely on firewood or coal.
2008年，朝鮮人口普查發布的數據顯示，有近90%的住戶因缺乏燃氣和電只能依靠柴火和煤炭。
Assuming the numbers bear some relation to reality, they put North Korea in line with countries such Uganda and Haiti, and suggest that North Korea’s purchasing-power-adjusted income per person was somewhere between $948 and $1,361 in 2008.
他們認為這些數據有事實支撐，并把朝鮮和烏干達和海地等國家歸為一類，且認為在2008年朝鮮根據購買力調整的人均收入在948美元到1361美元之間。
North Korea’s economy has made great strides since the country’s famine in the 1990s.
自從1990年的饑荒年代后，朝鮮的經濟已經取得了快速發展。
The government has tacitly allowed the market economy to grow.
政府也默許市場經濟的增長。
Although the rest of the country is still indisputably poor, visitors to Pyongyang, at least, cannot help but note the rise of shops and taxis.
無可爭議，這個國家仍然是很窮，但是至少游客在平壤，能夠發現商店和出租車的增多。
The paradox is that as the North Korean economy modernises, the data may actually be deteriorating.
矛盾的是，隨著朝鮮經濟的現代化，其數據實際上可能是惡化的。
The size of the country’s apparently burgeoning service sector is a complete mystery.
對于這個國家新興的服務業的規模依然全然不知。
Many scholars believe that the South Korean numbers are too low.
許多學者認為，韓國的數值太低。
Welcome though it is for poor North Koreans, growth may be bad for statisticians.
盡管（數值）增長對貧窮的朝鮮人來說是受歡迎的，但可能對統計學家不利。
考研英語時事閱讀
