評論
打印
Europe Georgian politics
歐洲 格魯吉亞政治
A stunning victory
驚人的勝利
A billionaire has unexpectedly won Georgia’s elections
億萬富翁出人意料地贏得了格魯吉亞大選
Bidzina Ivanishvili made a bold promise a year ago. Georgia’s richest man promised to assemble a coalition to win the parliamentary elections in 2012 and unseat the “dictatorship” of President Mikheil Saakashvili. On October 1st Mr Ivanishvili’s Georgian Dream coalition won 55% of the vote. Mr Saakashvili gracefully conceded that his United National Movement (UNM) had lost, and welcomed Mr Ivanishvili into power.
一年前，格魯吉亞首富畢齊達·伊萬尼舍維里許下了一個大膽的承諾，他將組建一個聯合政黨來贏得2012年的議會大選，從而廢除總統米哈伊爾·薩卡什維利的“獨裁統治”。10月1日，伊萬尼舍維里領導的格魯吉亞之夢聯盟以55%的選票贏得了選舉。薩卡什維利優雅地承認他的格魯吉亞民族聯合運動失敗了，同時歡迎伊萬尼舍維里掌權。
But not just yet. Georgia remains a presidential republic for another year, when constitutional amendments take effect. Until then Mr Ivanishvili’s scope will be limited. He called for the president to resign at once, then rescinded. Mr Saakashvili is not budging. The coming months may be bumpy.
但是目前看來，事情并不是這樣。在憲法修正案生效之前，格魯吉亞仍將保持總統制共和國一年之久。在那之前，伊萬尼舍維里先生的影響范圍將會受到限制。他呼吁讓總統立刻辭職，隨后被撤回。薩卡什維利先生不肯做出絲毫讓步。接下來的幾個月將會非常艱難。
Despite the bickering, the election is a landmark. Never in Georgian history has a government changed so peacefully and lawfully. That crowns other achievements of the past eight years. Modern Georgia is a far cry from the ill-run backwater that Mr Saakashvili took over in 2003. Transport systems and other public buildings have been transformed. Petty corruption has vanished. The economy is growing fast. But unemployment and poverty are high and life for many is hard.
盡管爭論不斷，但是本次大選已經成為一個里程碑。這是格魯吉亞歷史上最和平，最合法的政權轉換，是近八年來最偉大的成就。2003年，薩卡什維利開始接手這灘經營不善的死水，如今的格魯吉亞已經完全不同。運輸系統和其他公共建筑得到了改善，少數腐敗行為消失不見，經濟迅速增長。但是失業人數和貧困人口仍居高不下，許多人的生活依然非常艱難。
How Mr Ivanishvili’s disparate coalition will deal with this legacy is unclear. He has no political record and was all but unknown until a year ago. His main policy is better relations with Russia. It defeated Georgia in a short war in 2008 and occupies a fifth of its territory: the self-proclaimed states of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. A change of personality at the top should make a thaw easier. Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, once said he wanted to hang Mr Saakashvili “by the balls”.
伊萬尼舍維里領導的迥然不同的聯合政黨將會如何處理這些遺留問題，我們不得而知。他沒有任何從政歷史，直到一年前才為人所知。他的主要政策就是改善與俄羅斯的關系。2008年，兩國之間發生了一場短暫的戰爭，俄羅斯取得了勝利并占領了格魯吉亞五分之一的領土，宣布阿布哈茲和南奧賽梯地區為獨立國家。國家高層領導人態度的轉變將會更有利于改善兩國之間的僵硬的關系。俄羅斯總統弗拉基米爾·普金曾怒氣沖沖地聲稱要“牢牢地”絞死薩卡什維利先生。
The cause of the row was Georgia’s pro-Western orientation: its bid to join NATO was anathema to Russia and regarded with deep scepticism in much of the alliance. Mr Ivanishvili says he too wants to support membership of the alliance. His first trip abroad may be to America. But the new premier’s real priority will be to revive trade with Russia. Kremlin sanctions have strangled Georgian exports such as wine, fruit and mineral water.
引發爭端的原因是格魯吉亞的親西方化的傾向：他們申請加入北大西洋公約組織，這在俄羅斯看來是對其的一種詛咒，北約也懷疑其圖謀不軌。伊萬尼舍維里先生表示他也支持格魯吉亞成為北大西洋公約組織的一員。他就任后首次出訪的目的地將是美國，但是新總理真正的首要任務是恢復同蘇聯的貿易。俄羅斯政府的制裁扼殺了格魯吉亞酒類，水果和礦泉水的出口。
On other issues Mr Ivanishvili has been full of spleen about misrule, but hazy about what he would do differently. He has promised that he will be prime minister for no more than two years. Some doubt his coalition, of liberals, nationalists and eccentrics, will stay together once the euphoria of victory has passed. David Usupashvili, head of the Republican Party, says that Mr Ivanishvili’s business success shows he has the “ability necessary for a leader”. Such wealth “cannot be assembled by an unwise person”.
在其他問題上，伊萬尼舍維里一直對暴政深惡痛絕，但是他卻不太清楚如何做得與眾不同。他承諾他只擔任兩年的總理。一些人擔心一旦勝利的喜悅過后，他領導的由自由主義者、愛國主義者和怪人組成的聯合政黨會不會保持團結。共和黨領導大衛·烏蘇帕什維利認為伊萬尼舍維里的商業成功表明他具備“一個領導所需的能力”。不明智的人是無法積累如此多的財富的。
Mr Saakashvili has some thinking to do, too. Nobody from his camp, or among election-watchers in Tbilisi, foresaw this outcome. Their big worry was how to keep Georgian Dream loyalists, perhaps backed by Russia, from avenging defeat with violence. The surprise highlights the complacency that is the ruling elite’s big weakness. Many in Mr Saakashvili’s party came to believe that they were destined to rule and that criticism was treachery. Now it has to play a new role of a strong loyal opposition. That may test its unity.
薩卡什維利先生也該好好思考一番了。無論是在他領導的陣營，還是第比利斯的觀察團中都沒有人預見到這個結果。他們巨大的擔心是如何防止可能得到俄羅斯支持的格魯吉亞之夢黨的擁護者以暴力報復戰敗。這個出人意料地結果凸顯了統治精英的一大缺點—自鳴得意。薩卡什維利領導的政黨里許多人都認為他們注定會是統治者，批評意味著背叛。現在，他們要扮演一個新的角色，強大的忠實反對派。這是對他們凝聚力的考驗。
The decisive factor in the election may have been videos of abuse in prison, including a man apparently being raped with a broom. Though their provenance was unclear, for many the footage crystallised resentment against the arrogance and impunity of Mr Saakashvili’s rule.
決定選舉的關鍵因素可能是監獄里虐待犯人的視頻，其中包括用掃把毆打犯人的非常明顯的鏡頭。雖然他們的出處尚不明確，但是一個個連續鏡頭具體化了許多人對薩卡什維利執政的傲慢和不受懲罰的怨恨。
Neither side will find the post-election period easy. Giga Bokeria, Mr Saakashvili’s influential National Security Adviser, has said that Mr Ivanishvili has introduced “poison” into the political system.
選舉結束后的這段時期對雙方來說都不容易。薩卡什維利的頗具影響力的國家安全顧問吉佳·博克里亞聲稱伊萬尼舍維里已經將“毒藥”引進了政治體系。
For his part, Mr Ivanishvili said during the campaign that Mr Saakashvili and his officials would face unspecified “justice” once Georgian Dream came to power. Among other wild talk, he suggested that any supporter of Mr Saakashvili’s was an “accomplice in the cruellest crime”. Even the election result is open to challenge. Mr Saakashvili’s UNM claim that Georgian Dream activists are pressing local election commissions to change results in their favour. The NATO observation mission in Georgia has expressed “serious concern” about that.
而伊萬尼舍維里在大選運動期間表示一旦格魯吉亞之夢黨上臺，薩卡什維利和他的官員們將面臨未指定的“法律制裁”。他在其他輕率的對話中也暗示任何薩卡什維利政黨的支持者都是“最殘酷的犯罪的共犯”。即使選舉結果面臨著挑戰，薩卡什維利領導的格魯吉亞民主聯合運動黨聲稱格魯吉亞之夢黨的積極分子在對當地的選舉委員會施壓，試圖改變選舉結果，從而對他們有利。北大西洋公約組織駐格魯吉亞觀察使團對此表達了“深切關注”。
It is all still fragile. But by admitting defeat, Mr Saakashvili handed his country a victory and wrong-footed Mr Ivanishvili, who had said that he would never be allowed to win elections. Now that he has, he has a great responsibility to the system that has vaulted him to power.
雖然一切都還很脆弱，但是通過承認失敗，薩卡什維利先生傳遞給他的國家勝利的訊號，并使伊萬尼舍維里大亂陣腳，他曾表示從未被允許贏得選舉。既然他贏得了選舉，那么他就該對這個支持他掌權的系統擔負起應有的責任。 翻譯：姜振南
譯文屬譯生譯世
