=====精彩回顧===
油價下跌對世界經濟不利
Oil recently dropped below 70 dollars a barrel for the first time since 2010 and many Americans are rejoicing. Having cheaper gas is a good thing, right?
最近,油價自2010年以來首次下跌至每桶70美元以下 。許多美國人彈冠相慶 。油價便宜了是好事,對嗎?
Well, maybe not. A lot of countries and micro economies may stop functioning if oil prices dip too low. One of the biggest examples is Russia. Since the most recent drop in oil prices, Russia’s currency, the ruble, saw the biggest one-day decline since 1998. This is because oil and natural gas make up about 70% of the country’s exports, the second highest in the world, and Russia gets more than half of its budget from oil revenues. This drop ensures more financial hardships and less economic growth in a country already dealing with numerous international sanctions.
或許并非如此 。如果油價下跌至過低的水平,許多國家和微觀經濟體或許會停止運作 。其中一個最典型的例子就是俄羅斯 。自最近的油價下跌以來,俄羅斯貨幣盧布見證了自1998年以來單日最大貶值幅度 。這是由于石油和天然氣占據俄羅斯出口總額的大約70%,排在世界第二位 。俄羅斯超過一半的預算來自石油收益 。油價下跌導致這個原本已經面臨諸多國際制裁的國家遭遇更多的財政困境,經濟發展進一步受限 。
Some argue that the combination of the economic loss plus the estimated 40 billion Russia is losing from sanctions might put enough pressure on Vladimir Putin to end his conflict with Ukraine. But it’s not likely. Putin has been quoted being optimistic about his country's oil problems, citing the upcoming winter which will bring cold weather and with it, a higher demand for oil. But this is strictly speculation and history may have a way of repeating itself.
一些人辯稱,油價造成的經濟損失和俄羅斯在制裁中損失的大約400億美元或許會給普京施加足夠的壓力,讓他結束與烏克蘭的沖突 。但是這不太可能 。媒體報道引用普京的話說,他對國家的石油問題非常樂觀,稱即將到來的寒冬天氣會帶來石油需求的增加 。但這只是猜測,歷史或許會重演 。
Many blame the fall of the Soviet Union in the 1980’s partly on a decline in oil prices.
許多人認為上世紀80年代蘇聯的解體是由于油價的下跌 。
Other major oil producing nations, like Iran, Nigeria and Venezuela have their own struggles.
其他主要的石油生產國,比如伊朗,尼日利亞和委內瑞拉都面臨著自己的困難 。
In fact, Venezuela’s economic woes have already led to countrywide violent rioting.
實際上,委內瑞拉的經濟災難已經導致全國范圍的暴力動亂 。
The country is suffering from high levels of inflation,which has led to a scarcity of simple products like toilet paper and toothpaste. One analyst was quoted saying that for Venezuela to be able to balance its budget, oil prices would need to hit $200 a barrel. The money lost from the new drops in oil prices has forced the government to make major
cuts and increase taxes, something that will not help ease the unrest.
委內瑞拉遭遇高水平的通貨膨脹,導致廁紙和牙膏等簡單商品稀缺 。一位分析人士說,委內瑞拉要平衡預算,油價需要上升到200美元一桶 。石油價格新一輪下跌迫使政府進一步削減預算,增加稅收,這只會讓動蕩進一步加劇 。
So, lower oil prices could cause entire countries to fail, but they aren’t the only people affected. Lower oil prices could also hurt the fracking industry and put thousands of Americans out of work.
所以,石油價格下跌會給整個國家帶來困難,但是受到影響的不僅僅是人民 。石油價格下跌還會危害水力壓裂行業,讓數十萬美國人失業 。
Fracking is an expensive process and in order for those companies to make a profit, they have to sell their oil at a high price. If the price dips low enough, they’ll have to stop drilling. This would be a major blow to states like North Dakota, Oklahoma and Texas where fracking has been likened to the dot com bubble.
水力壓裂是一個昂貴的過程,為了讓這些公司盈利,他們不得不以高價出售石油 。如果油價下跌到足夠低的水平,他們將停止猜猜石油 。這對北達科他,俄克拉荷馬州和達克薩斯州將造成重大打擊 。