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Spain's economy
西班牙經濟
The worst may be over
最糟的情況即將結束
Mariano Rajoy predicts economic joy, but Spain still has a long way to go
馬里亞諾·拉霍伊預測經濟形勢可喜，但是西班牙仍然任重道遠。
THE Prado museum, lined with works by Goya, Velázquez and El Greco, is a sanctuary of peace in busy centralMadrid. When the museum advertised for eleven gallery attendants recently, it also seemed the perfect refuge fromSpain's job-starved economy: 18,700 people applied.
陳列著戈雅，委拉茲開斯，格列柯等人作品的普拉多博物館無疑是喧鬧的馬德里市中心最寧靜的天堂。尤其是當18700人申請它登出的11個畫廊服務員招聘廣告時，在導致西班牙大面積失業的經濟危機中它似乎也成為了完美的避難所。
AsSpaintimidly emerges from a double-dip recession that has ripped 7% out of GDP over five years, job-seekers remain desperate. Unemployment is stuck at 26% and emigration is picking up. So will the recovery create jobs and sendSpaininto a virtuous cycle of increased domestic consumption, a higher tax take, healthy public finances and more jobs?
由于在過去5年的雙底衰退中“膽怯”的西班牙國內生產總值已經降低了7%，求職者們仍然顯得非常絕望。失業率達到了26%，而且移民的人數也在持續增長。所以經濟復蘇是否會帶來更多工作并且將西班牙送入一個良性循環？——持續增長的國內消費，更高的稅收，公共醫療資金和更多的工作崗位。
Presenting next year's budget on September 30th, Cristobal Montoro, the budget minister, did not offer rapid relief. Projected growth of 0.7% next year falls short of the government's own estimates for job creation. And with a planned deficit of 5.8% of GDP adding to an already worrying debt pile, stimulus spending is impossible.
9月30日在報告第二年財政預算時，預算部長克里斯托 瓦爾蒙托羅并沒有送出讓人迅速解脫的消息。預期的0.7%的增長將會低于政府自身對明年增加就業機會的估計。而且隨著一個有計劃的占GDP5.8%的財政赤字增添到一堆已經很讓人擔憂的債務上，刺激消費已經是不可能的了。
Civil-service pay is being frozen for a fourth year in a row and pensions will not keep up with inflation, yet the public debt will still reach almost 100% of GDP. Spanish companies and households are busy trying to pay off their own debts. After taking a 41 billion ($55.6 billion) bail-out last year,Spain's banks find it safer to lend to the government than to business.
公務員薪金已經連續第四年被凍結而且養老金即將跟不上通貨膨脹的勢頭，但是國債仍然將接近國內生產總值的100%。西班牙企業家和民眾都忙著還清他們自己的債務。在去年得到了410億歐元（556億美元）的經濟援助之后，西班牙的銀行發現借錢給政府比借錢給商人更安全。
Even so,Spain's story is now one of hope. Mariano Rajoy, the prime minister, says the third quarter will show a return to growth. Deep in the real economy, exciting things are happening. Car plants are humming, taking work from less competitive factories inEurope. Retail sales figures are improving elsewhere. Even consumer credit has crept up in recent months. Recession inflicted a brutal cull on businesses, but those still standing are more efficient and productive than ever. Exports, spurred bySpain's new competitiveness, should grow more than 5% both this year and next, doubling their pre-recession weight in the economy. With exports booming, the current account has swung into surplus.
即使是這樣，西班牙的形勢現在仍然是存在希望的。首相拉霍伊表示第三季度將會呈現出恢復增長的態勢。深入到現實經濟中，一些令人激動的事正在發生。汽車工廠都是非常活躍的，并且正從歐洲那些缺少競爭力的工廠手中爭得業務。在其它方面零售數據也正在改善。甚至是貸款消費在最近幾個月也在緩慢增長。經濟衰退對企業進行了一次殘酷的淘汰，但是那些依然堅挺的企業比以往任何時候都更有效率和創造力。由于西班牙新的競爭環境的鞭策，它的出口業在今明兩年會得到超過5%的增長——這是經濟衰退前的兩倍數值。隨著出口業的蓬勃發展，往來賬戶已經開始變得有盈余。
Recovery in the European Union,Spain's main export market, will help further. The stockmarket is soaring, with the Ibex-35 indicator gaining 11% in September. After a bruising 21 months in office, Mr Rajoy predicts economic happiness next year. His Popular Party (PP) has even seen a bounce in opinion polls.
同時隨著西班牙主要出口市場——歐盟的經濟好轉，將進一步地幫助西班牙經濟復蘇。股市也在瘋漲，9月Ibex-35指數上漲了11%。在辦公室中度過了21個月“難熬”的日子之后，拉霍伊預測明年經濟將大為好轉。民意調查顯示他的人民黨支持率甚至出現反彈。
But Javier Díaz-Giménez, of the IESE business school, warns that the recovery is anaemic, fragile and unlikely to create jobs. Average GDP growth of 1%, he points out, would not seeSpainreturn to pre-recession levels until 2021. The IMF sees 25% unemployment through to 2018.
但是IESE商學院的哈維爾·迪亞斯—希門尼斯警告說這種復蘇是無力的和脆弱的并且不太可能去創造更多工作。他指出平均國內生產總值只增長了1%，不太可能在2021年之前看到西班牙經濟恢復到經濟衰退前的水平。國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）認為25%的失業率將持續到2018年。
The danger, warns Angel Laborda of the Funcas think-tank, is relaxation. Already he worries that this year's 6.5% deficit target will be missed. Overall fiscal pressure is relatively low for a country that wants a sophisticated welfare system. Structural reforms are still needed, he says, butSpainenters a two-year period of elections in 2014, sapping political courage. Overconfidence threatens to slow the fall in house prices, making it even harder to sell the 700,000 new homes left by the housing bubble that pitchedSpaininto recession. Fitch, a ratings agency, warns that at current rates of selling it will take six years to clear the overhang. Prices have fallen 30% or more from the peak, but Jesús Encinar of idealista.com, a property portal, sees a further 20% drop.
智庫儲蓄銀行聯合會的安格列 拉博發出警告說政府的松懈是危險的。他已經開始擔心今年6.5%的財政赤字會被人們所忽視。總的來說一個國家的財政壓力與它復雜的福利體系相比相對較低。他表示體制改革仍然是有必要的，但是西班牙在2014年即將進入一個為期2年的選舉階段，這有可能會削弱政府的勇氣。過分的自負預示著房價下調將會變慢，這讓由房地產泡沫遺留下來的70萬余套房屋更難售出，這也是導致西班牙經濟衰退的主要原因。來自評價機構的菲奇警告說以當前的水平要將房屋的過剩量全部售出將需要6年。房價比頂峰時期已經下降了30%，但是來自idealista網站的房地產專家Jesús Encinar認為將來還會有20%的降價。
The next test for Mr Rajoy is pensions. A diet rich in olive oil, wine and fresh vegetables helps make Spaniards among the longest-living people inEurope. The baby-boomers will retire over the coming decade. By 2050, the number of pensioners will have leapt from just over 9m to 15m; and the social-security system already loses the equivalent of 1.4% of GDP. The previous government hiked the retirement age to 67, but that is not enough. “To claim that the current system is sustainable is like saying smoking does not cause cancer,” says Mr Díaz-Giménez. The government has made bold proposals to calculate pensions according to life expectancy and the size of the state pension pot. But Mr Rajoy is under pressure to backtrack. Even the employers' federation has warned of pensioners' lost spending power.
對于拉霍伊的下一個考驗就是養老金。既節制的又富有的包含著橄欖油，酒和新鮮蔬菜的飲食習慣幫助西班牙人民成為歐洲最長壽的人之一。在接下來10年生育高峰期即將過去。到2050年，領取養老金的人數將從900萬猛增到1500萬;但同時社保體系卻已經失去了相當于1.4%的國內生產總值的資金。早先政府將退休年齡提高到67歲，但這并不足以解決問題。吉姆表示“如果宣稱現行體系是可維系下去的就像宣稱吸煙不會導致癌癥一樣可笑。”政府已經開始根據平均壽命和國家養老金的余額去分配養老金了。但是拉霍伊依然承擔著走老路的壓力。即使雇主聯合會已經警告過已經喪失消費能力的養老金領取者。
Labour reforms have helped to boost productivity, allowing employers and unions to opt for wage moderation rather than sackings. More may be needed if jobs are to be created. Lowering, or scrapping, the minimum wage might help. Taxes could also be cut, but only if public spending is cut. Luis de Guindos, the finance minister, says jobs will come when growth reaches 1%. Until then, the Prado museum remains a safe harbour.
勞務改革確實對提高生產效率有幫助，允許雇主們和公會去自行調整工資水平而不是一刀切。但如果有可能還是需要更多地工作機會。降低或者廢除最低工資標準可能會有效果。稅收也應該降低，但僅僅在公共花銷也降低的情況下。財政部長Luis de Guindos 表示當經濟增長達到1%時將會有更多地工作。在那之前，普拉多博物館依然是一個安全的港灣。譯者：曾擎禹 校對：周雨晴
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