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經濟學人:蘇格蘭獨立 火花四濺

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Scottish independence

蘇格蘭獨立
Sparks flying
火花四濺
Poverty and dependence on the state pull Scots in opposite directions
貧困和對英國的依賴將蘇格蘭拉離了原來的方向
BETTING shops in Rosyth are rowdier than usual. The troublemakers are not the familiar sort—drunks jousting over a Rangers match or the 4.30 at Musselburgh—but punters debating Scottish independence. “We've had to chuck people out,” grumbles one bookie. A gnarled customer agrees: “I don't like people talking about it in my cab,” he growls, eyes not moving from the racing. As the referendum on September 18th draws closer, tensions in this shipbuilding town are growing.
在羅賽斯,博彩店相較于平日愈發(fā)喧囂。鬧事者們并不是平日那一撥——醉鬼們押寶一場流浪者隊的比賽或是Musselburgh賽馬——而是賭馬者們給蘇格蘭獨立下注。“我們必須把人攆出去,”一位賽馬的下注者抱怨道。一個性情暴躁的顧客也頗為同意:“我不喜歡人們在我的車里談論這件事情,”他吼道,同時目不轉睛的盯著比賽。隨著9月18日的公投將近,這個造船小鎮(zhèn)的緊張感也在不斷增加。

All politics is local, even when an entire country's future is at stake. But in Rosyth, a run-down port in the shadow of the Forth Bridge near Edinburgh, distinctive local factors are pulling people in opposite directions. The importance of the town's biggest industry seems to militate for sticking with Britain. But the generally depressed state of the economy makes independence more appealing (see article). The outcome of this tug-of-war will determine how people vote in Rosyth—and in other parts of Scotland.

所有的政治都是地區(qū)性的,即使是在一個國家的未來岌岌可危之時。但在羅塞斯,這個靠近愛丁堡附近福斯橋的破舊港口,獨特的地方性因素使得人們走上了相反的方向。城鎮(zhèn)最大的產業(yè)的重要性似乎是阻礙了其與英國的綁定。但是普遍低迷的經濟狀況使得獨立更加迫切(見文章)。這場拉鋸戰(zhàn)的后果將決定人們如何在羅賽斯——和蘇格蘭其他地區(qū)投票。
Residents are reminded of the case for union every time they leave their homes. Above treetops and through gaps between pebble-dashed houses, glimpses of a vast blue rig marked “Air Carrier Alliance” and “Royal Navy” are visible. Beyond, the grey, 65,000-tonne slab of Britain's newest aircraft-carrier,HMS Queen Elizabeth, sits in the estuary. In a place where 13% of working-age adults are on out-of-work benefits, the shipyard is by far the largest employer—and it relies on money from Westminster.
居民們在每次離家之時總會被提醒聯(lián)合的事例。從樹梢上卵石做的房子之間的間隙,瞥見一個巨大的藍色船桅上標有“航空運輸聯(lián)盟”和“皇家海軍”的字樣。英國最新一級排水量達6.5萬噸的航母,伊麗莎白女王號航空母艦就坐落在河口。已達成年工齡成人中的13%仰仗著失業(yè)福利,造船廠是目前最大的雇主——而且它還依賴于來自英國議會的資金。
Those who build and man the ships are therefore firmly unionist. At a ceremony to name the carrier on July 4th, they booed Alex Salmond, Scotland's nationalist first minister and the leader of the pro-independence “yes” campaign. The following week the Rosyth workers' union representatives appeared before MPs in Westminster to warn against secession. Henry Wilson, a convener at BAE Systems, a defence firm, warned that naval shipbuilding in Scotland would be “finished” if Mr Salmond got his way.
那些建造并給船只配備人員的人因此是堅定的聯(lián)合主義者。在7月4日給某運輸公司命名的儀式上,蘇格蘭民族主義第一部長和支持獨立“成功”運動的領導遭到了Alex Salmond他們的噓聲哄笑。接下來的一周,羅賽斯的工人工會代表在議員之前出現在英國議會對反分裂提出警告。一位BAE系統(tǒng)公司(一個防衛(wèi)公司)的召集人Henry Wilson給出警告,如果Salmond如此遂心所欲,那么在蘇格蘭的海軍船舶建造將“玩完”。
Before the ship sails
起航之前
In the ex-servicemen's club on Admiralty Road most agree with Mr Wilson. Only one drinker is willing to admit to backing “yes”. “Ey, I've made up my mind,” says Jimmy, grinning defiantly. He struggles to hold his own around here, he adds: “full of “no” voters; gets very heated.” “He won't listen,” sighs Janet, the barmaid, wiping beer glasses. Janet thinks Mr Salmond's promises are baloney: “I don't trust him as far as I could throw him.”
在位于海軍部大道的退役軍人俱樂部中,多數人對Wilson的觀點表示贊同。只有一個酒徒愿意支持“成功”。“嗯,我已經決定了,” Jimmy笑嘻嘻的說道。他在這里艱難的保持的自己的觀點,他補充道:“全都是‘反對'的選民;氣氛變得異常激烈。”“他聽不進去,”酒吧的女招待Janet邊擦酒杯邊嘆息。Janet認為Salmond的承諾都是瞎扯。“我一點也不相信他。”
Jimmy is in a minority in the ex-servicemen's club, but he may not be in Rosyth at large. Nationalist sentiment is widespread. More “yes” signs are visible in windows than are “no” ones. Scottish saltires the size of bedsheets billow above allotments and from blocks of flats. Beyond the shipyard there is little sign of the British union flag.
在這個退伍軍人俱樂部中,Jimmy是一位少數民族人民,但他可能在羅賽斯就不是了。民族主義者的情緒是很普遍的。在窗戶上,相較于“反對”,更多的“成功”標志隨處可見。來自公寓中的床單大小的蘇格蘭旗覆蓋于物品上。在造船廠,幾乎看不見大英國旗的身影。
In 2010 an NHS study of central Rosyth put male life expectancy at 73.3 years—five years shorter than the British average. Teenage pregnancy and welfare dependency are unusually common, too. Those hard-up locals not employed in the shipyard could be forgiven for thinking that the union is not working for Scotland—and taking a gamble on independence.
在2010年,來自中央羅賽斯的英國國民健康保險制度(NHS)研究表明男性的預期壽命是73.3——比英國的平均年齡還短5年。少女懷孕和福利從屬也不盡相同。那些沒有被船廠雇用的當地窮人可以因其認為蘇格蘭并不在同盟內而被原諒——并且為獨立下賭注。
A great many former Labour Party voters fall into this category. The collapse of the party's working-class base in the 2011 Scottish election gave Mr Salmond's Scottish National Party (SNP) the majority it needed to press for a referendum on independence. In Cowdenbeath, the seat containing Rosyth, support for the SNP jumped from 29% to 42%.
很多老工黨選民都屬于這一類。在2011年蘇格蘭大選中黨派的工人階級基礎的垮塌,給了Salmond的蘇格蘭民族黨(SNP)在獨立公投中它所需的多數人員。在考登比斯,包含羅賽斯的席位中,SNP的支持率從29%一躍至42%。
This makes Rosyth typical of a sort of Scottish town: post-industrial and deprived but sustained by the British state, which spends about 1,500 ($2,500) more per head in Scotland than it does nationally. Others include Govan and Scotstoun, both shipyards, and Pollokshaws, home to National Savings and Investments, a state-owned bank. In Cumbernauld, outside Glasgow, Britain's largest revenue and customs office employs four times as many people as any other outfit. Gregg McClymont, Labour MP for Cumbernauld, notes that Scotland has 8% of Britain's people but 13% of its tax jobs. How could it sustain them if it became independent?
這使得羅賽斯成為蘇格蘭城鎮(zhèn)當中的一朵奇葩:后工業(yè)化和相對貧困但是被英國供養(yǎng),這在蘇格蘭人均要比全國還要多出1,500歐元 (約合2,500美元)。其他的像戈萬和斯科特斯頓,二者的造船廠和波洛克索斯,國內儲蓄和投資,一個國有銀行。在格拉斯哥之外的坎伯諾爾德,英國最大的稅收和海關雇傭相較于其他任何組織四倍的人手。坎伯諾爾德的工黨議員Gregg McClymont指出,蘇格蘭擁有英國人口的8%但在稅收工作中的人數占了13%。蘇格蘭一旦獨立如何維持這些的運轉?
In such places, the “yes” campaign faces a particularly acute version of a problem that confronts it across Scotland. The disadvantages of independence are concrete and would be quickly felt—in the case of Rosyth, shipbuilding jobs would sail to Portsmouth, on England's south coast. Any advantages, such as the broad industrial revival promised by Mr Salmond, would take years to materialise, if they ever do. Folk in Rosyth enjoy the odd flutter. But on September 18th the stakes will be much higher than usual.
在這些地區(qū),“成功”的運動面臨著一個全蘇格蘭都存在的非常緊急的問題。獨立的弊端是很客觀的而且很快將會感覺到——就羅賽斯來說,造船廠的工作將移至英國的南部海岸樸茨茅斯。任何優(yōu)勢,比如Salmond承諾的廣泛的工業(yè)復興,如果他們可能行動,將花費數年才能實現。羅賽斯人民享受這些奇怪的震顫。但在9月18日,風險將比平日更高。 譯者:張娣 校對:周雨晴

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