評論
打印
Spain's economy
西班牙經(jīng)濟
Iberian dawn
伊比利亞的黎明
The labour market is recovering at last. But it needs further reform
勞動市場最終還是復蘇了，但是其需要進一步的改革。
THIS was the news the government had been waiting for. “Spain's labour market has made a 180-degree turn,” crowed the prime minister, Mariano Rajoy, as the country announced the first annual rise in employment in six years. The numbers show that unpopular reforms to the malfunctioning labour market are starting to work. But there is plenty left to do.
這是政府翹首以待的消息。“西班牙的勞動力市場已經(jīng)發(fā)生了180度的大轉(zhuǎn)彎”，當西班牙政府宣布這是六年來西班牙首次就業(yè)增長時，西班牙總理馬里亞諾·拉霍伊對此洋洋自得。這些數(shù)字表明那些不受失靈勞動力市場待見的改革也已經(jīng)初見成效，但仍有許多東西亟待解決。
In the past year Spain has created 190,000 jobs. The unemployment rate, still one of the highest in the euro zone, fell from 26% to 24.5% (see chart), and the labour force stopped shrinking after six straight quarters of decline.
在過去的一年中西班牙國內(nèi)增加了19萬個就業(yè)崗位。在歐元區(qū)位列前茅的失業(yè)率從之前的26%下降到24.5%，在連續(xù)六個季度的下降之后，勞動力也停止了萎縮。
The labour reform in 2012 gave companies more flexibility to set wages and working conditions themselves rather than through sector-wide bargaining, and cut severance payments for unfair dismissals. Those changes, buttressed by a deal between unions and employers, tempered wage growth that had far outstripped gains in productivity. How much credit do they deserve for the upturn in employment?
2012年的勞動改革給企業(yè)帶來了更多的靈活性以確保工資和工作條件自身的穩(wěn)定而不是通過全部門的談判并削減對不公平解雇所分發(fā)的遣散費。這些變化是基于工會與雇主之間的交易，這種收入增長的調(diào)節(jié)大大領(lǐng)先于生產(chǎn)率的加強。但是就業(yè)情況的好轉(zhuǎn)會為他們帶來多少信用呢？
The answer may determine the political fate of Mr Rajoy, who defied street protests to push reform through and faces a general election by the end of next year. The opposition Socialist Party claims that the number of unemployed has risen by more than 600,000 since Mr Rajoy took office in 2011, despite the reforms. Pedro Sanchez, the party's new secretary-general, promises to repeal them if it regains power.
這個答案或許會決定拉霍伊的政治命運。拉霍伊抵制街頭抗議，強行推進改革，而明年年底西班牙大選在即。在野的社會黨聲稱，盡管有改革，但是自從2011年拉霍伊先生上任以來，失業(yè)人數(shù)增加了至少60萬。該黨派的新任秘書長佩德羅·桑切斯承諾，如果該黨重新上臺，則會廢除一切不利的改革政策。
That would be a mistake. Other factors contributed to the jobs recovery, especially the “whatever it takes” pledge by the European Central Bank two years ago to save the euro. But reform played an important role, says Rafael Domenech, an economist at BBVA, a bank. One piece of evidence is that Spain is creating jobs at lower rates of GDP growth than before. In previous cycles, employment rose when growth hit 2%. This time the gain came during a year when GDP expanded by just 1.2%.
而這看起來會是一個錯誤。其他的因素促成了就業(yè)復蘇，尤其是兩年前歐洲央行為了拯救歐元所作出的那個“不惜一切代價”的誓言發(fā)揮了極大的作用。然而在BBVA銀行的經(jīng)濟學家拉斐爾·多梅內(nèi)克看來，拉霍伊的改革卻起到了至關(guān)重要的作用。支持這一說法的證據(jù)之一是，西班牙國內(nèi)新增的就業(yè)機會所占國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的最低比重。在以前的經(jīng)濟周期中，當經(jīng)濟增長達到兩個百分點的時候就業(yè)才會增長。而這一次在GDP僅僅增長一個百分點的時候就業(yè)就已經(jīng)增長了。
To make a serious dent in unemployment, however, Spain will need to be more ambitious. Without further changes, the jobless rate will not dip below 20% until 2019, according to the IMF. The structural unemployment rate—the level reached when the economy is working at capacity—is 18%, triple that of America.
然而，為了大力降低失業(yè)率，西班牙需要再加一把勁。據(jù)國際貨幣基金組織稱，如果沒有其他變革，直至2019年失業(yè)率也不會降低至百分之二十之下。而西班牙的結(jié)構(gòu)性失業(yè)-即勞動力對經(jīng)濟變動的適應水平-已經(jīng)達到百分之十八，是美國的三倍。
One problem is that many small companies (with ten workers or fewer) have not benefited from greater flexibility. That is because the process of opting out of sector-wide agreements can be cumbersome. Such opt-outs could be made easier.
一個問題是，有許多小企業(yè)（只有十個員工甚至更少）并沒有從更大的靈活性中收益。這是因為選擇退出的全部門協(xié)議的過程會十分復雜。而事實上這一過程能變得更容易。
Another is that nearly a quarter of workers are still on temporary contracts. This is damaging, because they are much less productive than those with permanent jobs and employers do not invest in them. One way to encourage firms to hire permanent workers would be to cut severance payments to the levels of other European countries.
另外一個問題是，近四分之一的工人仍然簽著臨時合同。這對就業(yè)穩(wěn)定是毀滅性的的打擊。因為比起那些有固定工作的人來說，這些臨時工的效率更低，并且雇主也不愿意為這些臨時工投資。相對于其它歐洲國家而言，而某種鼓勵企業(yè)雇傭長工的做法會降低遣散費的水平。
Nor has much been done for the 3.5m people who have been jobless for more than a year, says Marcel Jansen of Madrid's Autónoma University. Many are poorly educated: Spain has one of the highest school drop-out rates in the OECD. Those with qualifications often find that they are not the ones employers want.
據(jù)馬德里自治大學的馬塞爾·楊森成，至少350萬人失業(yè)超過一年，并且其中的很多人都沒受過多少教育：西班牙是OECD中輟學率最高的國家之一。而那些有學歷的人常常發(fā)現(xiàn)他們并不是雇主想要雇傭的人。
The answers, says Mr Jansen, include spending more on retraining and overhauling state-run employment offices, which do a poor job of matching workers' skills with local employers' needs. The government has tightened rules for people receiving unemployment benefit to encourage them to look for work or to take training courses. But they need to be effectively enforced.
詹森先生說，解決這些問題的辦法要包括花費更多進行業(yè)務培訓，并且還要整頓國營就業(yè)辦公室，因為國營辦公室在引導工人習得雇主所需技能方面做得并不好。政府已經(jīng)用法規(guī)對那些領(lǐng)取失業(yè)津貼的人們進行束縛，并鼓勵他們找工作或者參加培訓課程。但是這些政策得有效執(zhí)行才行。
The government could lower the cost of hiring workers by cutting social-security contributions, which are high by European standards. A rise in value-added tax could pay for that. Others advocate lowering the minimum wage for unskilled workers.
政府可以通過削弱社會保障金來降低雇傭工人的費用，因為這個社保金水平的標準是根據(jù)歐盟標準所制定的。增值稅的上漲會為此買單。而也有一些人主張用降低非技術(shù)工人的最低工資的方式來降低成本。
Mr Rajoy says he will not let up on reform until Spain's unemployment plague becomes merely a “sad” episode in history. He has started talks with unions and employers on a package of job-friendly measures, to be hammered out after the summer break. But with elections looming, few expect it to be bold.
拉霍伊表示，除非西班牙的大規(guī)模失業(yè)造就歷史上絕無僅有的一個“絕望”時代，否則他不會減緩改革的腳步與力度。拉霍伊已經(jīng)開始與工會和雇主就就業(yè)友好型措施的一攬子計劃進行談判，其結(jié)果將在夏休后一錘定音。但是隨著西班牙大選的臨近，幾乎沒有人希望這個改革可以莽撞繼續(xù)下去。翻譯 周曉婷 校對 曾擎禹
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