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Bankruptcy and the economy
破產與經濟
A fresh start
一個全新的開始
New evidence that rules for debtors are too tough
新證據表明，對債務人的要求太苛刻
LAST year nearly 1m Americans filed for bankruptcy. That is far fewer than the number who used to seek bankruptcy protection before the law was made tougher a decade ago. This reform may have done more harm than good.The aim of bankruptcy law is to give people relief from unpayable debts. Some two-thirds of individual bankruptcies are due to a lost job. Many bankrupts need time to get back on their feet. In the mid-2000s Chapter 7 rules made it easy to wash away debts. That irritated credit-card firms, which claimed that spendthrifts abused the system; so in 2005 the law was toughened. The idea was to shift people to a Chapter 13 bankruptcy, where they would have to repay some of the debt.
去年，將近100萬美國人申請破產。十年前，法律對于破產保護條件非常嚴苛，而那些曾經尋求破產保護的人數卻遠超過申請破產的人數。這項改革可能弊大于利。[破產法旨在幫助人們減輕無法償還的債務。約有2/3的個體破產源于失業。許多人破產后需要一定時間才能從中恢復過來。21世紀中期，第七章規定有利于擺脫債務。這激怒了信用卡公司，并聲稱，“敗家子們”濫用了系統；也因此2005年，法律變嚴格了。這樣做的初衷是讓人們適應第13章破產規定，即他們必須償還一些債務。
The reform had a big impact. At least at first, Chapter 13 filings rose relative to Chapter 7 ones. And a new paper, from Stefania Albanesi, of the New York Federal Reserve, and Jaromir Nosal, of Columbia University, finds that the reform led to a permanent drop in the bankruptcy rate.
這項改革曾意義深遠。至少，一開始，第13章文件與第7章文件相關聯的。紐約聯邦儲備銀行的Stefania Albanesi與哥倫比亞大學的Jaromir Nosal共同完成了一篇新的論文，指出這項改革實現了短暫的破產率降低。
However, other recent research suggests that this is not necessarily a good thing. Will Dobbie, of Princeton University, and Jae Song, of the Social Security Administration, look at Chapter 13 bankruptcies before the reforms of 2005. They link half a million bankruptcy filings to tax records and use a novel technique to analyse them. Because some bankruptcy judges are more lenient than others, people in similar straits may end up with different bankruptcy decisions. This quirk allows some useful comparisons.
然而，其他最新研究表明，這未必是一件好事。普林斯頓大學的威爾·多比(Will Dobbie)與社會保障總署的宋杰（Jae Song）于2005年改革前就研究第13章破產法。他們認為，這100萬人中有一半破產與稅收記錄有關，并且使用一項新技術對其進行分析。因為一些審判破產的法官網開一面，所以處于類似困境的人有可能會有不同的破產決議。像這樣的案例帶來了用價值的對比。
Messrs Dobbie and Song argue that easier bankruptcy laws have good microeconomic effects. If a creditor may no longer claim large chunks of a bankrupt's salary, that may increase his incentive to work—and decrease his need to slip out of town, change his job and close down his bank account. On average, those granted bankruptcy earned over 6,000 more in the subsequent year than similarly-placed plaintiffs who were rejected. The unlucky ones found it trickier to service their mortgages. Michelle White of the University of California, San Diego and colleagues found that bankruptcy reform caused the default rate on prime mortgages to rise 23%.
多比先生和宋先生辯解道，破產法越簡單，其產生的微觀經濟效應越好。如果債權人不再索要大量破產者的薪水，如此一來，或許可以刺激他工作，而且他也不用搬去郊區、更換工作、關閉銀行賬戶。與那些有類似遭遇且遭到拒絕的原告相比，這些有保障的破產，平均可以在接下來的一年里掙6千逾美元。倒霉的人發現越來越難償還抵押貸款。圣地亞哥加利福尼亞大學的米歇爾·懷特以及其同事發現，破產法改革導致貸款市場的拖欠債務率上調了23%。
Making consumer-bankruptcy law more debtor-friendly could hit Americans in other ways. If lenders are exposed to bigger losses, some argue, interest rates for such things as credit cards are bound to rise. But that danger can be overstated. Credit-card companies may be reluctant to charge rates higher than their competitors' lest they attract the dodgiest customers—those not put off by high rates because they know that, with luck, they won't have to pay their debts back.
消費者—破產法越有利于債務人，越是在其他方面沖擊美國人。一些人爭辯道，倘若借出方蒙受更大的損失，類似信用卡的利率勢必上漲。但是，這種擔憂或許有點言過其實。信用卡公司或許不愿意改變高于對手的利率，唯恐競爭對手會偷偷吸引顧客——這些顧客深知，如果運氣好，即使利率再高，他們也可以不用償還債務。
Figures released on March 6th by the Federal Reserve show that consumer debt rose for the 41st straight month (see chart). With inflation low and wages weak, that is worrying. Ms White wants to roll back some of the reform of 2005, making bankruptcy cheaper. Whether that just increases profligacy remains to be seen.
美國聯邦儲備局3月6日發布數據表明，消費者債務連續第41個月上升。通脹率低、工資減少，情況很不樂觀。懷特小姐想把2005年改革壓到最低標準，把破敗變得更加廉價。此舉是否助長享樂主義，仍為一個未知數。譯者：黃柳
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