評論
打印
Spain and Catalonia
西班牙與加泰羅尼亞
Mas observation
馬斯觀察
Catalonia calls an election, but it will be only one of many in Spain this year
加泰羅尼亞要舉行大選，這只是西班牙眾多選舉之一。
Mas waves the independence flag
馬斯揮舞著獨立的旗幟
CATALAN independence, if it ever happens, has been pushed back at least seven months after the region's president, Artur Mas, decided not to call a snap election but to opt instead for September 27th. The election is still being promoted as a plebiscite on independence, but not in the way Mr Mas once hoped. His original plan for a single list uniting all the separatist parties has been dropped at the insistence of his rivals from the Catalan Republican Left (ERC). In last-minute horse-trading, he accepted that ERC would stand separately from his own Convergence and Union (CiU) coalition, in exchange for its support for this year's budget, which his minority government could not pass alone.
加泰羅尼亞的獨立運動即便要發(fā)生也要推遲到七個月之后，也就是說，該地區(qū)主席阿圖爾·馬斯決定不舉行臨時選舉，而是9月27日舉行大選之后進行。這場大選雖然被視作一場獨立公民投票，但還是與馬斯最初所設(shè)想的有所出入。他原本想要團結(jié)所有分裂主義黨派的計劃被他的對手加泰羅尼亞左翼共和黨（ERC）的堅持而夭折。在最后的討價還價中，他接受了ERC將與他自己的聚合暨同盟（CiU）分庭抗禮的建議，用以換取它對今年財政預算的援助，否則他自己的少數(shù)黨政府可熬不過這一關(guān)。
That has turned the September poll into one as much about winning power as about independence, with ERC well-placed to oust CiU as the most popular party. The timing is both good and bad for the separatists. It comes just two weeks after Catalonia's national day, on September 11th, which campaigners have turned into a mass event in recent years. But they would still have preferred a February vote, before Catalans are distracted by a flurry of polls right across Spain.
隨著ERC成功的將CiU取而代之成為最受歡迎黨派，9月的投票也變成了決定獨立成功與否的眾多投票之一。這個時機對分裂主義來講喜憂參半。這場投票緊跟在9月11日加泰羅尼亞國慶日兩周后舉行，那時競選者們還未從國慶日這一近年來的大事件中抽身。但是他們還是希望投票在2月舉行，那時加泰羅尼亞人還沒被西班牙一系列投票攪得心煩意亂。
Elections in most other regions and municipalities will be held in May. They will test the staying power of the new upstart left-wing party, Podemos (“We Can”), which leads in several opinion polls, and its local party allies in various one-off groupings. One interesting battle will be in the Catalan capital, Barcelona, where Podemos backs a group called Guanyem (“We Win”). The Barcelona election, with several parties likely to win seats, will be an example of the fractured new politics of Catalonia and Spain: sometimes three parties may be needed for a majority.
其它大多數(shù)是地區(qū)和自治市的選舉將在5月舉行。他們將試探一下新崛起的左翼政黨Podemos（“我能”）的忍耐力。這個政黨在數(shù)次民意測驗領(lǐng)先，并且它的地方組織來源多樣。而最有意思的一場對決將在加泰羅尼亞的首府巴塞羅那展開，在那里Podemos將支持Guanyem（“我贏”）的組織。在巴塞羅那選舉中，有幾個政黨有希望能贏得席位，這將是加泰羅尼亞和西班牙的政治隔絕的又一事例：有時候，三黨并立恰恰是多數(shù)人所愿。
Catalonia's independence movement faces further internal spats. Mr Mas and the ERC leader, Oriol Junqueras, want to agree on a common road-map to independence. Mr Junqueras will push for it to be hard-hitting. But some of Mr Mas's allies within CiU want it weakened. If not, the coalition's junior partner, the Democratic Union of Catalonia, may split from Mr Mas's own Catalan Democratic Convergence. And the slim majority for independence found in some polls may go with it.
加泰羅尼亞的獨立運動面臨著進一步的內(nèi)部爭端。馬斯河ERC領(lǐng)導人奧尼奧爾·楊克拉斯想要在獨立的大致路線圖上達成一致。楊克拉斯想要采取強硬手段來推行。但是馬斯在CiU的一些同盟想采取溫和手段。如果不能達成一致的話，那么聯(lián)盟的新伙伴加泰羅尼亞民主聯(lián)盟或許會同馬斯的加泰羅尼亞民主聚合黨分裂。并且經(jīng)過一些投票顯示獨立運動以微弱優(yōu)勢倒向民主聯(lián)盟。
Spain's prime minister, Mariano Rajoy, is hoping that economic recovery, with growth outstripping most of the rest of Europe, will create enough jobs and goodwill to stop the independence bandwagon. His Popular Party (PP) is also readying itself for a bruising confrontation with Podemos in cities and regions like Madrid and Valencia in May. A big Podemos march in Madrid on January 31st will be a demonstration of the new party's muscle.
西班牙總理馬里亞諾·拉霍伊希望經(jīng)濟增長超過歐洲大部分國家，由于經(jīng)濟復蘇可以帶來更多工作機會，這將有望遏制獨立趨勢的蔓延。他的人民黨（PP）也已做好準備與 Podemos于5月在諸如馬德里和巴倫西亞這樣的城市和地區(qū)進行激烈對抗。 Podemos將于1月31日在馬德里舉行一場大游行，這也將是這個新黨派實力的展示。
The party has its sights firmly set on the general election due in late November, which its leader, Pablo Iglesias, portrays as a battle between Podemos and the PP. Spain's mainstream Socialists, he hopes, will go the way of Greece's ailing Pasok. Mr Iglesias is duly campaigning for the Syriza party in Greece's election. But Podemos also seeks to dilute Catalan separatism by offering an alternative outlet for those frustrated with Mr Rajoy. And unlike Mr Rajoy, who refuses ever to contemplate an independence referendum, Podemos says the issue should be put to a vote.
這個政黨將目光牢牢鎖定在去年11月的大選上。黨派領(lǐng)導人巴勃羅·伊格萊西亞斯將之描述成Podemos 和 PP之間的斗爭。他希望西班牙的主流社會黨將步上希臘的泛希臘社會主義運動黨狀況不佳的后塵。伊格萊西亞斯準備正式參加Syriza黨在希臘的競選。但是Podemos為了緩解加泰羅尼亞的分裂主義，也想要通過為拒絕考慮設(shè)立獨立公投的拉霍伊所面臨的困境施以援手，Podemos稱這個問題應(yīng)該通過投票解決。譯者：邵夏沁 校對：唐宇
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