尼加拉瓜運河
Digging for truth
挖掘真相
Chinese construction is due to start—but of what?
這個中國建設的工程是為了什么而動工。
ON DECEMBER 22nd an odd couple—Nicaragua's left-wing government and a Chinese-born telecoms magnate—say they will begin the realisation of a dream that has captivated Nicaraguans for generations: the construction of an inter-oceanic canal to rival Panama's. According to Manuel Coronel, an octogenarian who runs the canal authority, their intentions are now beyond dispute. “When the bride and groom set a date, you know it's serious,” he says.
12月22日，尼加拉瓜左翼與中國電信巨頭這對神奇的組合宣布他們將會實現尼加拉瓜幾代人的夢想，那就是建造一條可以與巴拿馬運河相匹敵的通洋運河。運河權威部門的元老，Manuel Coronel表示他們的計劃是無可爭議的，“就像新郎和新娘約會一樣，這是一件天經地義的事。”
But ask Mr Coronel just where construction will begin and who will pay for it, and he has no answers. Neither does HKND, the Hong Kong-based company run by Wang Jing, which is to build the $50 billion waterway. The project has been shrouded in secrecy since Nicaragua's National Assembly awarded a 50-year concession to HKND in 2013. No feasibility study, environmental-impact report, business case or financing plan has yet been released. Instead come platitudes from the Sandinista government of Daniel Ortega about how it will bring a jobs bonanza and end poverty.
但問到工程地點以及資金來源時，Coronel不能給出答案。HKND也沒法給出答案。這家由王靖經營的香港公司將建價值500億美金的水路。自從13年尼加拉瓜議會決定將50年的使用權轉給HKND時這個項目就被保密了。沒有可行性研究，沒有環境影響報告也沒有商業案或者金融計劃。相反的奧特加帶領的桑地諾政府倒是說了一堆關于這個項目可以提供就業終結貧困的陳詞濫調。
So far, it has brought as much fear as hope. Since Chinese-speaking surveyors, backed by Nicaraguan soldiers and police, began assessing land and houses along the canal's proposed 278km (172-mile) route a few months ago, peasants fearful of their land being expropriated have taken to the streets 16 times. On December 10th several thousand, shouting “We don't want the Chinese”, protested in Managua, the capital, despite police efforts to keep them in their villages, activists say. Boatmen in Punta Gorda on the Caribbean coast have refused to ferry heavy machinery to be used to begin construction, fearing their livelihoods will be harmed.
迄今為止，這個項目帶給人們更多的是恐懼而非希望。幾個月前，由尼加拉瓜士兵和警察撐腰的中方調查員開始估算運河沿岸287KM（172-m）房屋與土地。農民很擔心他們的土地被征收，于是走上街頭16次。活動者表示雖然警察努力讓大家呆在村莊，但12月10日，首都馬那瓜還是爆發抗議，幾千人走上街頭高喊：“不要中國人”。加勒比沿岸Punta Gorda的船夫拒絕運送用于建設的重型器械。他們擔心自己的生活會遭到破壞。
In November the Nicaraguan Academy of Science convened a panel of experts to demand clarification of the impact of dredging sediment along a 105km stretch of Lake Nicaragua. They said it could damage drinking water, irrigation systems, fishing and biodiversity in one of Latin America's greatest tropical lakes. Engineers say the proposed canal, which is aimed at enticing bigger ships than those now able to cross between the Atlantic and Pacific, could run massively over budget and provoke further widening of the Panama Canal, which would ruin its business case.
11月，尼加拉瓜科學學院召集專家澄清沿著尼加拉瓜湖105km的地方動工的影響，他們表示這可能會使拉美最好的熱帶湖中的飲用水被污染，灌溉系統、漁業和生態多樣性被破壞。工程師表示這條旨在能使更大的船只往來大西洋與太平洋的運河，其預算和引起的不滿可能會遠遠大于巴拿馬運河。而這會毀了建造運河這個計劃。
Many still doubt it will ever be built. Carlos Fernando Chamorro, editor of an anti-Ortega publication, Confidencial, says the only groundbreaking on December 22nd will be for an access road to a proposed port near Brito, on the Pacific coast, at what is expected to be one entrance to the canal. Some experts think the port, a proposed airport nearby and a free-trade zone may be as far as the canal gets.
很多人還在懷疑運河是否會建。反奧特加的出版物Confidencial的主編Carlos Fernando Chamorro表示12月22號唯一的創舉就是要建一條通向港口的路。這個港口在太平洋沿岸的Brito附近，仍在計劃中，它也是運河的入口之一。 許多專家認為，建港口，飛機場和自由貿易區的好處比運河大得多。
But the case for a canal may not rest only on tolls and jobs. China may see it as a strategic route to the Atlantic, says Evan Ellis of the United States Army War College. If so, it might be built after all.
運河不單單能提供同行費與工作。美國陸軍戰爭學院的Evan Ellis表示中國可能將其視作通往大西洋的戰略要道。如果真的是這樣，運河就一定會建。譯者：嚴曉晴
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