評論
打印
Greece and the euro
希臘和歐元
Crisis revisited
危機重現
The euro is still vulnerable, and Greece is not the only problem
歐元仍然脆弱不堪，而希臘不是其中唯一的問題。
IT WAS almost exactly five years ago that the euro crisis erupted, starting in Greece. Investors who had complacently let all euro-zone countries borrow at uniformly low levels abruptly woke up to the riskiness of an incompetent government borrowing money in a currency which it could not depreciate. There is thus a dismal symmetry in seeing the euro crisis flare up again in the place where it began.
距上一次由希臘引爆的歐債危機已經過去整整五年了。投資者曾經無所顧忌地以統一的低利率借錢給歐元區國家，現在卻猛然醒悟，認識到一個無能的政府正在以不會貶值的貨幣不斷地借錢。歐元危機從當年開始的國家重新蔓延，不得不說是一次悲催的重蹈覆轍。
The proximate cause of the latest outbreak of nerves was the decision by the Greek government, now headed by the generally competent Antonis Samaras, to advance the presidential election to later this month. The presidency is largely ceremonial, but if Mr Samaras cannot win enough votes in parliament for his candidate, Stavros Dimas, a general election will follow. Polls suggest the winner would be Syriza, a populist party led by Alexis Tsipras. Although Mr Tsipras professes that he does not want to leave the euro, he is making promises to voters on public spending and taxes that may make it hard for Greece to stay. Hence the markets' sudden pessimism.
導致投資者精神突然緊張的直接原因是希臘政府的決定。現任希臘領導人Antonis Samaras相對還比較有能力，他將在本月晚些時候提前進行總統選舉。本次選舉基本上是儀式性的，但如果Samaras不能在議會為其接班人Stavros Dimas贏得足夠多的選票，接下來還會進行一次普選。民意調查顯示，由Alexis Tsipras 領導的民粹主義政黨左翼聯盟將會贏得普選。盡管Tsipras表示他不會支持希臘脫離歐元區，但他在公開場合向選民做出的關于公共支出和稅收的承諾會令希臘很難留在歐元區。因此市場突然悲觀情緒彌漫。
As it happens, there is a good chance that Mr Dimas, a former EU commissioner, will win the presidential vote at the end of this month (see article). But the latest Aegean tragicomedy is a timely reminder both of how unreformed the euro zone still is and of the dangers lurking in its politics.
剛巧，對于前歐盟委員Dimas來說是在本月底贏得總統選舉的好機會。但是，最近發生在這個愛琴海國家的悲喜劇在不斷提醒人們，歐元區的改革是多么的止步不前，且其政治中隱藏了多少危機。
It is true that, ever since the pledge by the European Central Bank's president, Mario Draghi in July 2012 to “do whatever it takes” to save the euro, fears that the single currency might break up have dissipated. Much has been done to repair the euro's architecture, ranging from the establishment of a bail-out fund to the start of a banking union. And economic growth across the euro zone is slowly returning, however anaemically, even to Greece and other bailed-out countries.
現實是，自從2012年7月歐洲央行主席Mario Draghi發誓要不惜一切代價拯救歐元之后，人們對于單一貨幣可能會崩潰的擔憂消除了。為了修復歐元的組織結構人們做了很多工作，從建立應急儲備基金到開始統一銀行業。歐元區國家的經濟，即使是希臘和其他獲得援助的國家，也在緩慢增長。
But is that good enough? Even if the immediate threat of break-up has receded, the longer-term threat to the single currency has, if anything, increased. The euro zone seems to be trapped in a cycle of slow growth, high unemployment and dangerously low inflation. Mr Draghi would like to respond to this with full-blown quantitative easing, but he is running into fierce opposition from German and other like-minded ECB council members (see article). Fiscal expansion is similarly blocked by Germany's unyielding insistence on strict budgetary discipline. And forcing structural reforms through the two sickliest core euro countries, Italy and France, remains an agonisingly slow business.
但是這就夠了么？即使當下分崩離析的危險暫時解除了，歐元這一單一貨幣的長期危險反而增加了。歐元區似乎被困在緩慢增長、高失業率和極其危險的低通脹怪圈里。Draghi希望能通過全面的量化寬松對這一困境做出反應。但他的主張遭到了德國和其他持有相似觀點的歐洲央行成員的激烈反對。同樣，德國堅持嚴格的預算控制不僅毫無成效也阻礙了財政擴張。另外，強迫兩個歐洲最疲弱的核心國家——意大利和法國進行結構改革，同樣也進展緩慢。
Japan is reckoned to have had two “lost decades”; but in the past 20 years it grew by almost 0.9% a year. The euro zone, whose economy has not grown since the crisis, is showing no sign of dragging itself out of its slump. And Japan's political set-up is far more manageable than Europe's. It is a single political entity with a cohesive society; the euro zone consists of 18 separate countries, each with a different political landscape. It is hard to imagine it living through a decade even more dismal than Japan's without some political upheaval.
日本被認為已經經歷了“失去的二十年”，但是在過去的20年中，日本基本保持了0.9%的年增長率。歐元區的經濟自從危機之后就沒有增長，且沒有任何跡象表明其有能力拜托這一困局。而且日本的政治體系也比歐洲更易管控。這是一個擁有單一政治實體的有凝聚力的社會；而歐元區有18個國家，每個都有不同的政治面貌。很難想象如果沒有一場政治巨變，歐元區能撐過一個比日本更悲催的十年。
Greece is hardly alone in having angry voters. Portugal and Spain both have elections next year, in which parties that are fiercely against excessive austerity are likely to do well. In Italy three of the four biggest parties, Forza Italia, the Northern League and Beppe Grillo's Five Star movement, are turning against euro membership. France's anti-European National Front continues to climb in the opinion polls. Even Germany has a rising populist party that is against the euro.
希臘不是唯一一個有著憤怒選民的國家。葡萄牙和西班牙明年都將舉行選舉，那些反對過度節儉政策的政黨們更有可能勝出。意大利四大政黨中的三個：意大利前進黨、北方聯盟和Beppe Grillo領導的五星運動黨，都反對意大利繼續成為歐盟成員國。法國民意調查顯示，反歐盟的國民陣線的支持率繼續攀升。即便是在德國，也有一個反歐盟的民粹主義政黨正在崛起。
It's the politics, stupid
這是愚蠢的政治
Indeed, the political risks to the euro may be greater now than they were at the height of the euro crisis in 2011-12. What was striking then was that large majorities of ordinary voters preferred to stick with the single currency despite the austerity imposed by the conditions of their bail-outs, because they feared that any alternative would be even more painful. Now that the economies of Europe seem a little more stable, the risks of walking away from the single currency may also seem smaller.
確實，歐元的政治危機可能比2011-12年歐債危機頂峰時期更加危險。令人驚訝的是，盡管當時由于緊急援助而使得人們不得不節衣縮食，絕大多數普通選民仍寧愿維持單一貨幣政策，因為他們擔心任何改變會變得更糟。現在，歐洲經濟似乎變得稍微穩定了些，放棄單一歐元的風險也變得更小了。
Alexis de Tocqueville once observed that the most dangerous moment for a bad government was when it began to reform. Unless it can find some way to boost growth soon, the euro zone could yet bear out his dictum.
Alexis de Tocqueville曾經做過觀察，他認為一個失敗政治最危險的時刻是在其正準備開始改革的時候。除非它能很快找到刺激增長的方法，歐元區可能仍需為其堅持的政策提供證明。譯者:鄧小雪
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