評論
打印
Climate change
氣候變化
Dealing with denial
應對爭議
America's concessions are more real than China's
較之中國，美國作出更大讓步
FIVE years ago next month, disagreement between America and China, the world's biggest greenhouse-gas emitters, scuppered the UN's Copenhagen climate-change conference. On November 11th Presidents Barack Obama and Xi Jinping announced a deal on carbon emissions. This is welcome, with two caveats: China has not conceded much, and Congress will do its best to prevent America from delivering what the president has promised.
五年前的十二月，世界最大的溫室氣體排放國—美國和中國，兩國的分歧使聯(lián)合國氣候變化大會無果而終。11月11日，奧巴馬總統(tǒng)與習近平總書記就碳排放問題宣布了一項協(xié)議。協(xié)議不可否認受到歡迎，但也存在兩個隱患：中國并沒有做出多大讓步，同樣美國國會將盡其所能阻止總統(tǒng)奧巴馬兌現(xiàn)承諾。
Because America is responsible for a far larger share of the greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere than China, it was bound to accept sharper cuts. Even so, it has made big concessions. America had previously signed up to a cut of 17% below 2005 levels by 2020. This looks achievable because emissions are already falling. The new agreement is for a 26-28% cut by 2025, which would require a doubling in the pace of cuts after 2020.
由于大氣中美國所排放的溫室氣體要遠大于中國，它負有更多的責任，因而必定要承受更多的減排任務(wù)。即便如此，美國還是做出了重大讓步。此前美國就簽訂協(xié)議在2020年前在2005年減排指標的基礎(chǔ)上再減排17%。這不是無稽之談，因為現(xiàn)在美國的碳排放已經(jīng)在下降。新的減排協(xié)議要求在2025年前實現(xiàn)26%-28%的減排任務(wù)，這將要求美國在2020年之后加速減排的步伐，估計是以前減排步伐的兩倍。
China has agreed that its emissions will peak in 2030, and that the percentage of non-fossil fuels in its energy consumption will rise to 20% by 2030. Just getting a date out of the Chinese is an achievement, but American negotiators had been aiming for 2025. More important, the date the Chinese have agreed to may not be so different from what would have happened without a deal. Earlier this year He Jiankun of Tsinghua University reckoned that China's carbon emissions would peak by “around 2030”, as economic growth is slowing and urbanisation will have mostly run its course by then.
中國同一在2030年其減排行動將達到頂峰，截止2030年，中國非化石燃料能源占能源消費比重的百分比將增至20%。中國能給出一個具體的時間就是一場勝利，然而美國談判專家想要中國將時間提前至2025年。更重要的是，中國所同意的時間表在沒有協(xié)議的情況下基本可以說形同虛設(shè)。今年年初，清華大學的專家何建坤稱中國的碳減排將在2030年達到頂峰，那時候中國的經(jīng)濟增長已經(jīng)趨緩，城市化進程也趨于完善。
The agreement gives both sides plenty of wriggle room, referring to the countries' “best efforts” and their intentions to reach their targets. Because it is not a treaty, it does not have to be ratified by Congress. But for America to meet its new targets, both Congress and the Supreme Court would have to leave the federal government's current efforts to cut carbon emissions, which involve issuing regulations under the Clean Air Act, well alone.
就兩國會盡最大的努力以及他們達成減排目標的意愿來看，該協(xié)議為兩國都留有較大余地。因為這僅僅只是一份協(xié)議而不是公約，它不需要經(jīng)過國會的批準。但是美國要想達成其新目標，國會和最高法院就必須不管聯(lián)邦政府現(xiàn)在對碳排放所作出的努力，這包括在清潔空氣法案之下制定相關(guān)法規(guī)。
Those efforts are in the hands of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), which many Republicans would like to abolish altogether. The Republican majority in the House of Representatives has already made it clear that it would like to roll back greenhouse-gas regulations issued by the EPA; the new Republican Senate will probably agree.
而實現(xiàn)這些努力措施的決定權(quán)掌握在環(huán)境保護局手中，但是共和黨人卻都想廢止這些行動。眾議院中共和黨中的絕大多數(shù)人明確表示將會退回換將保護局發(fā)行的溫室氣體規(guī)定，新的共和黨眾議員很可能會同意。
Mitch McConnell, the Republican leader in the Senate, comes from Kentucky, a coal-producing state, and has already attacked the deal. “This unrealistic plan, that the president would dump on his successor, would ensure higher utility rates and far fewer jobs,” he said. Senator Jim Inhofe, who is likely to head the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee, has called climate change “the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people”, and compared the EPA to the Gestapo.
參議院的共和黨領(lǐng)導人明奇·麥康奈爾，來自產(chǎn)煤之州肯塔基，已經(jīng)在攻擊該協(xié)議。他宣稱：“這是一個不切實際的計劃，是奧巴馬甩給繼任者的爛攤子，將會增加公共事業(yè)費率而大大減少就業(yè)崗位”。參議院吉姆·英霍夫，很有可能會成為參議院環(huán)境與公共事業(yè)委員會的一把手，稱氣候變化是“降臨到美國人民身上最大的騙局”，并將環(huán)境保護局比作蓋世太保。譯者：占文英
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