評(píng)論
打印
America and the Middle East
美國(guó)和中東
Back to Iraq
重返伊拉克
By combining military force with political brinkmanship, America is making some headway
通過(guò)對(duì)地緣政治和軍事力量的結(jié)合，美國(guó)正取得一些進(jìn)展
AMERICA'S last two presidents have got things wrong in Iraq in opposite ways. George W. Bush went into the country in 2003 guns blazing, with 148,000 soldiers and too little thought of how to stabilise it after Saddam Hussein had been defeated. The consequences were disastrous.
美國(guó)最近兩任總統(tǒng)在處理伊拉克問(wèn)題上都錯(cuò)誤的走向了兩個(gè)極端。2003年喬治·W·布什帶著148000名士兵對(duì)這個(gè)國(guó)家進(jìn)行軍事打擊，卻沒(méi)有考慮在薩達(dá)姆被擊敗后如何來(lái)穩(wěn)定它。其后果是災(zāi)難性的。
Barack Obama took a different approach. Americans, he reckoned, were not capable of bringing peace to this complex, violent and distant place. He allowed the troops' mandate in the country to run out with insufficient attention to what might follow, and then applied the same logic in Syria where he did little to support moderate opponents of Bashar Assad. His policy aided the rise of the Islamic State (IS), a Sunni terrorist group, that has taken territory in Syria and Iraq.
奧巴馬采取了不同的方式。他覺(jué)得美國(guó)人沒(méi)法給這個(gè)復(fù)雜、暴力和遙遠(yuǎn)的地方帶來(lái)和平。他允許結(jié)束部隊(duì)在該國(guó)的任務(wù)，卻沒(méi)考慮到這一做會(huì)帶來(lái)些什么，然后在對(duì)待敘利亞問(wèn)題上用了相同的邏輯，在那里他沒(méi)怎么支持巴沙爾·阿薩德溫和的反對(duì)者。他的這一政策促使了伊斯蘭國(guó)(IS)的的興起，而這一遜尼派恐怖組織已在敘利亞和伊拉克占領(lǐng)了領(lǐng)土。
Now the prospect of a caliphate run by extremists bent on attacking the West has persuaded a reluctant Mr Obama that he cannot walk away from the Mesopotamian mess, and he is trying a new tack—combining modest military force with hard-nosed political brinkmanship. Given conditions in the region, the chances of success are limited. But they are better than those offered by any other approach.
現(xiàn)在，由于極端分子掌控的哈里發(fā)可能會(huì)執(zhí)意要攻擊西方世界，這使得即使不情愿也沒(méi)發(fā)從美索不達(dá)米亞的混亂中脫身，而他正在嘗試一種新的手段—把適度的武力和強(qiáng)硬的地緣政治政策相結(jié)合。鑒于該地區(qū)的情況，很難取得成功。但它們是比其他任何的方式都好一些。
A risky bet
冒險(xiǎn)一搏
When on August 8th jets from an aircraft-carrier in the Gulf bombed IS and halted its advance, critics argued that Mr Obama was doing too little, too late. America had sat by for two months and watched IS conquer parts of northern Iraq. A humanitarian disaster followed: thousands of Yazidis, members of a Kurdish-speaking sect, fled into the mountains to escape the jihadists. IS tried to take Erbil, the capital of the Iraqi Kurds, threatening their peaceful, prosperous enclave.
當(dāng)8月8日海灣的航空母艦上的飛機(jī)轟炸對(duì)IS進(jìn)行轟炸時(shí)，批評(píng)者認(rèn)為，奧巴馬做得太少且太遲了。兩個(gè)月來(lái)，美國(guó)坐視IS占領(lǐng)了伊拉克北部部分地區(qū)。人道主義災(zāi)難接踵而至：成千上萬(wàn)名為雅茲迪人的庫(kù)爾德語(yǔ)教派的成員紛紛逃入深山以躲避圣戰(zhàn)者。IS試圖奪取伊拉克庫(kù)爾德人的首府埃爾比勒，并威脅它們和平繁榮的土地。
Certainly, more will need to be done to root out the extremists. But Mr Obama deserves credit for learning from past mistakes. He is the fourth American president in succession to bomb Iraq. In order to break that sequence, it is not enough just to unleash another round of shock and awe. The jihadists would only regroup. A politically stable Iraq is needed, run by a government that is broad-based and popular.
當(dāng)然，要想鏟除極端分子還有很多事情要做。但事值得表?yè)P(yáng)的是奧巴馬從過(guò)去的錯(cuò)誤中學(xué)到了東西。他是連續(xù)第四位對(duì)伊拉克進(jìn)行軍事打擊的總統(tǒng)。為了打破這種慣例，僅僅釋放新一輪的震懾是不足夠的。圣戰(zhàn)主義者只會(huì)重新聯(lián)合。這時(shí)迫切需要一個(gè)由具有廣泛基礎(chǔ)和受歡迎的政府管理下的穩(wěn)定的伊拉克。
The one headed for the past eight years by Nuri al-Maliki, a member of the Shia majority, was nothing of the kind. It alienated Kurds and excluded Sunnis, who make up a quarter of the population. Some Sunnis came to support the extremists of IS, seeing them—often reluctantly—as the only defence against a brutal security apparatus. An all-out American attack on IS risks being seen as a sectarian move.
那個(gè)在過(guò)去八年里以多數(shù)什葉派的成員努里·馬利基為首的政府就完全不屬于這一類。它疏遠(yuǎn)庫(kù)爾德人并把遜尼人排除在外，而他們占了總?cè)丝诘乃姆种弧Ｒ恍┻d尼派開(kāi)始支持IS極端分子，通常是不情愿地把他們看作是對(duì)抗殘暴的政府安全機(jī)構(gòu)的唯一屏障。美國(guó)對(duì)IS的全力攻擊可能會(huì)被視為宗派行為。
Mr Obama's gamble has been to withhold all but minimal military support in order to force political change in Baghdad. That strategy has come at a cost. IS has consolidated its hold on Iraq's second-biggest city, Mosul, and captured a dam that supplies much of the country with water. It is well-armed and self-financing. But political change appears now to be under way in Baghdad. Mr Maliki may with luck be replaced as prime minister by Haider al-Abadi, a more inclusive figure. The Americans alone did not usher Mr Maliki out. He made enemies among Iraqis, including in his own party. Iran also fell out with him. Even so, pressure from Mr Obama helped see him on his way.
奧巴馬的冒險(xiǎn)在于僅以極少的軍事支持來(lái)迫使在巴格達(dá)的政治變革。這一策略的執(zhí)行已經(jīng)付出了代價(jià)。IS已經(jīng)鞏固其對(duì)伊拉克第二大城市摩蘇爾的掌控，并奪取了給該國(guó)大部分地區(qū)供水的大壩。它裝備精良，并自給資金。但政治變革現(xiàn)在看來(lái)正在巴格達(dá)進(jìn)行。馬利基可能會(huì)幸運(yùn)的被更具包容性的人物海德?tīng)枴ぐ偷先〈鳛榭偫怼Ｃ绹?guó)人單獨(dú)并沒(méi)有送出馬利基。他在包括他自己的政黨在內(nèi)的伊拉克人中到處樹(shù)敵。伊朗也與他鬧翻了。即便如此，來(lái)自?shī)W巴馬的壓力也有助于了他的離去。
Mr Maliki has been an awful prime minister. If Mr Abadi, also a Shia, appoints a cabinet that includes senior Sunnis in prominent positions, as seems likely, he will reduce popular support for the extremists, which should help persuade Sunni rebels to switch sides. That would pave the way for concerted military action by the Iraqi government to regain territory lost to the extremists. With America acting as its air force, it should be possible to push back IS. The extremists' numbers are limited and their equipment still no match for the West.
馬利基一直是一個(gè)糟糕的總理。如果同為什葉派的阿巴迪先生任命包括顯要地位的高級(jí)遜尼派人在內(nèi)的一個(gè)內(nèi)閣，他將減少民眾對(duì)極端分子的支持，而這將有助于說(shuō)服遜尼派反叛者轉(zhuǎn)換立場(chǎng)。這將為由伊拉克政府的軍事行動(dòng)鋪平道路，這一行動(dòng)是為了從極端分子那奪回領(lǐng)地。借助美軍的空中力量，它應(yīng)該有可能打退IS。極端分子的人數(shù)有限，而他們的裝備仍然根本不是西方的對(duì)手。
There are dangers here: if American bombing caused many civilian casualties, the extremists would have more chance of portraying themselves as protectors of Sunnis against a hostile Shia-led government and its infidel allies. American soldiers will still be in harm's way. Even in the age of satellite-guided bombs, precise strikes depend on the presence of special forces to identify targets. But a plausible path to forcing the jihadists out of Iraq would open up.
危險(xiǎn)隱患在于：如果美國(guó)轟炸造成許多平民傷亡，極端分子將會(huì)有更多的機(jī)會(huì)將自己塑造成是對(duì)抗敵對(duì)的什葉派主導(dǎo)的政府及其異教徒盟友的遜尼派的保護(hù)者。美國(guó)士兵仍然面臨傷亡。即使是在衛(wèi)星制導(dǎo)炸彈的時(shí)代，精確打擊仍依靠特種部隊(duì)的存在以確定目標(biāo)。但是將開(kāi)啟一條把圣戰(zhàn)者驅(qū)逐出伊拉克道路。
The trickier question for Mr Obama is what to do if Iraq lives down to expectations, and fails to get a better prime minister or a more inclusive government. The jihadists' ambitions to establish an Islamic caliphate cannot be tolerated. But an all-out assault may bolster Sunni support for IS and risk the disintegration of Iraq. The Kurds live in a more-or-less defined territory: it is possible to imagine the formation of an independent Kurdish state. Sunnis and Shias do not. A break-up of the country could lead to bloodshed on an unprecedented scale. The capital is shared by the sects, as are surrounding areas. America may then be reduced to conducting occasional punitive missions to keep IS contained.
對(duì)于奧巴馬來(lái)說(shuō)更棘手的問(wèn)題是如果伊拉克不能如期得到一個(gè)更好的總理或更具包容性的政府那該怎么做。伊斯蘭圣戰(zhàn)者建立一個(gè)伊斯蘭哈里發(fā)政權(quán)的雄心是不能被容忍的。而全力以赴的攻擊可能會(huì)加強(qiáng)遜尼派對(duì)IS的支持并有招致伊拉克瓦解的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。庫(kù)爾德人生活在一片多少有些防御的領(lǐng)土：可以想像一個(gè)獨(dú)立的庫(kù)爾德國(guó)家的形成。國(guó)家的破裂可能導(dǎo)致前所未有的規(guī)模的流血沖突。首都如同周邊區(qū)域一樣是由各教派占有的。那樣美國(guó)為遏制IS而進(jìn)行的偶爾的懲罰性任務(wù)將會(huì)受到削減。
And once again Syria
再來(lái)看看敘利亞
In all events, Western leaders must prepare the public for a lengthy military engagement in this part of the world. Even if confronted by America's full military might, the extremists could melt back into the population of Mosul, a city of 2m people where they have had a strong underground presence for years. They could also slip back across the nearby border with Syria, where they have a safe haven in swathes of land they have seized during the civil war. From there they would probably continue to foster instability in Iraq.
不管發(fā)生什么事件，西方領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者必須讓公眾接受在這一地區(qū)將會(huì)有長(zhǎng)期的軍事介入。即使面臨美國(guó)的全部軍事力量，極端分子也可以融回摩蘇爾的人群中，他們多年來(lái)在摩蘇爾這個(gè)有200萬(wàn)人口的城市中有著強(qiáng)大的地下存在。他們還可以穿越附近挨著敘利亞的邊境溜回，在那里有他們?cè)趦?nèi)戰(zhàn)期間奪取的大片的安全避風(fēng)港。而這將可能會(huì)繼續(xù)加劇伊拉克的不穩(wěn)定性。
That raises an uncomfortable truth for Mr Obama. His judgment is that the jihadists can be properly dealt with only by creating long-term stability in Iraq. A similar situation exists in Syria. Yet the president has long resisted intervening there, and been backed in this by a war-weary American public and Congress as well as international lawyers. Still, in the long run America is unlikely to be able to destroy or even contain militant jihadism without involving itself in Syria.
對(duì)于奧巴馬這引發(fā)了一個(gè)令人不安的事實(shí)。他認(rèn)為圣戰(zhàn)分子的問(wèn)題只能通過(guò)在伊拉克創(chuàng)立長(zhǎng)期的穩(wěn)定才能得以妥善處理。在敘利亞的情況也是如此。然而，總統(tǒng)一直拒絕介入，并且不論是美國(guó)民眾或是國(guó)會(huì)以及國(guó)際律師都支持這一做法。不過(guò)，從長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)來(lái)看，除非美國(guó)自身介入敘利亞，否則它不太可能能夠摧毀或是遏制住激進(jìn)的圣戰(zhàn)主義。
Mr Obama's new approach in Iraq seems to be working. But more decisive action against the jihadists will be needed. The Americans are back on the ground, and they will be there for a while.
奧巴馬處理伊拉克問(wèn)題的新方法似乎是有用的。但是需要采取更為果斷的行動(dòng)來(lái)對(duì)抗圣戰(zhàn)者。美國(guó)大兵又回來(lái)了，并且短時(shí)間內(nèi)是不會(huì)走了。
