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Russia's aid convoy
來(lái)自俄羅斯的援助
Putin's PR coup
普京的“公關(guān)部隊(duì)”
Russia offers to send aid to eastern Ukraine
俄羅斯表示愿意為烏克蘭東部地區(qū)提供援助
HELP is on the way. Or so Russian state television declared on August 12th, as nearly 300 lorries with food, medicine and generators set off from a base outside Moscow for the besieged city of Luhansk in eastern Ukraine.
俄羅斯國(guó)家電視臺(tái)8月12日宣布對(duì)烏的援助已經(jīng)在路上了，接近300輛滿載食物、藥品以及發(fā)電設(shè)備的貨運(yùn)卡車已經(jīng)從莫斯科外的基地出發(fā)，準(zhǔn)備開(kāi)往烏克蘭東部去幫助盧甘斯克地區(qū)那些被圍困的城市。
Confusion reigns over what the lorries are carrying, and over how they will cross into Ukraine. As The Economist went to press, the convoy was heading to Rostov, a Russian city close to the border. It is a measure of Ukrainian distrust of Russian machinations that an aid convoy should be widely suspected of being a Trojan horse for invasion.
但是人們一直對(duì)卡車上到底裝載何物表示懷疑，同時(shí)也對(duì)他們?nèi)绾未┻^(guò)俄烏邊境到達(dá)任務(wù)地區(qū)表示質(zhì)疑。按經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人的推測(cè)，護(hù)送車隊(duì)的目的地將在靠近邊境的俄羅斯城鎮(zhèn)—羅斯托夫。因?yàn)闉蹩颂m當(dāng)局懷疑這是俄羅斯的詭計(jì)，并且這批援助車隊(duì)極可能是為侵略做準(zhǔn)備而送來(lái)的“特洛伊木馬”。
In March Vladimir Putin, Russia's president, sent columns of troops without insignia into Crimea while claiming only local pro-Russian volunteers were at large. Yet the aid convoy is unlikely to be cover for an invasion. Had Mr Putin decided to invade, he would not have needed a stealth fleet of lorries—he has as many as 45,000 troops on the border. Russia does not have to hide arms in aid lorries to get them to its proxy forces.
今年3月，當(dāng)克里米亞地區(qū)公投聲稱親俄選民占了大多數(shù)時(shí)，俄羅斯總統(tǒng)弗拉德·普京向該地區(qū)輸送了一隊(duì)沒(méi)有官方標(biāo)識(shí)的軍隊(duì)。不過(guò)，這一批的援助車隊(duì)看上去不太可能是為了侵略打掩護(hù)。即使普京已經(jīng)決定開(kāi)始侵略行動(dòng)，他也沒(méi)必要將軍隊(duì)藏在貨運(yùn)卡車中——在俄烏邊境上，他至少駐守了多達(dá)45，000人的軍隊(duì)。俄羅斯沒(méi)必要使用這種偷偷摸摸的方式來(lái)運(yùn)送它的武裝力量。
Most likely the offer of Russian aid to Luhansk, a city wracked by fighting and left without water or power, is a clever push by Mr Putin to be seen at home to be doing something to protect civilians in the east. Polling by the Levada Centre, a think-tank, shows public support for Russian military intervention in Ukraine dropping from 40% to 26% between June and July, but support for non-military aid remains high. Either the Russian supplies go through, making Mr Putin look the peacemaker, or they are blocked by Ukrainian forces, allowing Russia to appear the nobler party.
在普京看來(lái)，俄羅斯向被戰(zhàn)亂和激進(jìn)左翼分子圍困的盧甘斯克地區(qū)提供援助，是他能夠在克林姆林宮為保護(hù)俄羅斯身在該地區(qū)公民做的明智之舉。由智囊團(tuán)——內(nèi)華達(dá)中心進(jìn)行的調(diào)查顯示，6到7月之間，公眾們對(duì)于俄羅斯軍事干預(yù)烏克蘭事務(wù)的支持率從40%降低到了26%，但是對(duì)于提供非軍事援助，人們一如既往地支持。不管是最后俄方的援助車隊(duì)能穿過(guò)邊境到達(dá)目的地，還是說(shuō)雖然被烏克蘭軍隊(duì)阻擋無(wú)法進(jìn)入，但是允許俄方在一些高層聚會(huì)中有所作為的行為。
Mr Putin has taken advantage of a blind spot within the Ukrainian government and in the West: the mounting civilian death toll of the “anti-terrorist operation” in eastern Ukraine. On August 13th the UN reckoned that 2,086 people had been killed in the fighting, double the number from just two weeks ago. As Ukrainian forces recapture territory from pro-Russian rebels, their shelling often ends up striking civilian areas.
現(xiàn)在，普京已經(jīng)牢牢抓住了烏政府的一項(xiàng)污點(diǎn)：根據(jù)8月13日的統(tǒng)計(jì)，在烏克蘭東部“反恐行動(dòng)”中死亡的公民數(shù)已經(jīng)達(dá)到2086人，相比兩周前，這個(gè)人數(shù)已經(jīng)翻番了。因?yàn)闉蹩颂m軍隊(duì)在從那些親俄的反政府主義者手中重新奪得一些地區(qū)的控制權(quán)時(shí)，通常以進(jìn)攻平民居住區(qū)收尾。
Yet the convoy carries the risk of escalating tensions rather than bringing relief. Any fight at the border over the passage of the lorries into Ukraine could erupt into a wider clash presaging Mr Putin calling in the troops. After months of Russia's backing anti-government rebels, suspicions in Kiev are high.
然而，援助車隊(duì)不但不能讓形勢(shì)緩和，反而提高了沖突升級(jí)的危機(jī)。一旦這一路上發(fā)生任何戰(zhàn)斗都可能帶來(lái)更為巨大沖突，那時(shí)也預(yù)示著普京極有可能會(huì)呼喚軍隊(duì)的介入。并且，由于數(shù)月來(lái)俄羅斯對(duì)于反政府勢(shì)力的暗中支持支持，基輔當(dāng)局有理由高度懷疑俄羅斯的用心。
More probably, a break in the fighting to let the lorries in is part of a plan to slow down the pace of the Ukrainian advance, helping to turn the war into a frozen conflict. That would suit Mr Putin fine. But, however deft he may be at controlling the pictures on television, the events on the ground are harder to dictate.
更可能的是，這種暫停戰(zhàn)事以讓車隊(duì)順利到達(dá)盧甘斯克的行為只是拖緩烏克蘭前進(jìn)的計(jì)劃的一部分，這將有助于將這場(chǎng)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)轉(zhuǎn)入凍結(jié)狀態(tài)。那樣正和了普京的如意算盤。不過(guò)，無(wú)論如何，他可能也只能完全掌控電視畫(huà)面所呈現(xiàn)的一切，戰(zhàn)場(chǎng)上的一切都是未知數(shù)。
