評論
打印
Serbia's foreign policy
塞爾維亞的外交政策
Divided loyalties
分裂的忠誠
Serbia is torn between its old ally, Russia, and the European Union
塞爾維亞在歐盟和俄羅斯兩位老盟友間舉棋不定，不知何去何從
A NICE summing-up of Serbia's foreign-policy dilemmas was shown in a recent drawing by Corax, the country's leading political cartoonist. Aleksandar Vucic, Serbia's prime minister, is shown playing two pianos at once, with Angela Merkel, Germany's chancellor, conducting on one side, and Vladimir Putin, Russia's president, conducting on the other. The Serbian government is finding the Ukraine crisis is only adding to the political cacophony.
近期，塞爾維亞首席政治漫畫家科拉克斯發布了一組全新的關于塞爾維亞外交窘境的漫畫。塞爾維亞總理亞歷山大·希奇一直在德國總理安格爾·默克爾和俄羅斯總統弗拉德·普京之間打著不算優雅的“太極拳”。并且，塞爾維亞政府發現，烏克蘭危機非但不是一個緩和點，反而讓形勢變得更加撲朔迷離。
In March Serbia abstained in a UN vote reaffirming the territorial integrity of Ukraine after Russia's annexation of Crimea. As a candidate for European Union membership, it was heavily criticised for this by its partners. Officially the reason was that Serbia had only a caretaker government. But the real reason was that it did not want to annoy its traditional ally, Russia.
今天三月俄羅斯吞并克里米亞之后，在歐盟關于重新劃分烏克蘭邊界線的會議上，塞政府投了棄權票。作為申請成為歐盟成員的候選人，它的這一行為引起它的同伴們的強烈批判。官方理由說塞爾維亞政府只是臨時過渡政府。但實際原因則是它不愿意因此得罪自己的傳統盟友—俄羅斯。
Since then Serbia has desperately tried to please both sides. Now its government is clear that, just as Kosovo should be part of Serbia, so Crimea should be part of Ukraine. But much of the press and many Russophile Serbs disagree. A website with contacts for those who want to fight with pro-Russian rebels in eastern Ukraine says that the “liberation” of Kosovo is not possible without the liberation of Novorossiya, as the rebels call their territory.
從那以后，塞政府不得不絕望地開始兩邊討好。現在他們的政府清楚地意識到，就如科索沃是塞爾維亞不可分割的一部分一樣，克里米亞也應該是烏克蘭的領土。但是媒體界的很多人和一些親俄派塞爾維亞人并不這樣認為。某網站試圖與烏克蘭東部那些親俄反政府勢力保持聯系，他們聲稱“解放”科索沃就像解放新羅希克斯一樣不可能。
The number of Serbs fighting in Ukraine may be no more than 100, but their alleged exploits are widely reported. Mr Vucic calls them mercenaries who are “harmful” to Serbia. Legislation is being drawn up making it illegal to fight in foreign wars. That would also cover Serbian citizens who are ethnic Albanians or Bosniaks and have become jihadists in Syria and Iraq. Yet Serbian soldiers still train with both Russian and NATO troops (Serbia is in NATO's “partnership for peace”, but is not a candidate for membership).
事實上真正參與了烏克蘭沖突的塞爾維亞人可能不到100人，但他們對沖突的影響卻被大大擴散了。希奇聲稱那些雇傭軍已經“損害了”塞爾維亞的利益。立法機構也正在立法讓參與境外戰爭變成非法行為。這一法例涵蓋了所有塞爾維亞人，包括那些阿爾巴尼亞人和波什尼亞人以及正在敘利亞和伊拉克參與“伊斯蘭圣戰”的人。然而，塞爾維亞士兵依然同時和俄羅斯以及北約軍隊一起訓練。
Candidates to join the EU are supposed to align their foreign policy with it. Thus Montenegro has imposed sanctions on Russia. But Serbia has refused to do so: it would cause enormous damage, growls Russia's ambassador in Belgrade. Now Brussels is telling the Serbian government it must not profit from Russia's ban on imports of certain agricultural and dairy products from the EU. Croatian companies hit by the ban are reportedly investigating if they can relabel their products as Serbian.
如果塞爾維亞希望加入歐盟，那么它必須調整自己的外交政策，使其與之一致。因此，黑山共和國已經開始對俄羅斯進行制裁措施。但是塞爾維亞拒絕這樣做—極有可能是因為俄羅斯大使在貝爾格萊德威脅稱那將帶來毀滅性的的災難。現在歐盟明確告知塞政府，他們必然不能從禁止俄羅斯進口歐盟農業產品以及日常用品的禁令中獲益。該禁令的受害者—克羅地亞的一些公司據說正在進行調查，看能否像塞爾維亞那樣對商品進行二次貼商標。
Energy is another source of tension. For years the prospect of South Stream, a pipeline to export Russian gas that would pass through Serbia, has shimmered like a mirage ahead. It would bring jobs and cash as well as gas to parts of the country that need them. Now it is unclear if it will ever happen. Under pressure from the European Commission, the Bulgarian government has just suspended its part of the project.
能源是加劇緊張氣氛的另一要素。南溪計劃經過多年勘探，一條用于出口俄羅斯天然氣的輸油管道會通過塞爾維亞境內，而現在看來這條管道莫過于海市蜃樓一般虛無縹緲。如果這條管道建成，必將給塞爾維亞帶來同天然氣一樣重要的工作機會和金錢。但現在，這個項目能否實現已經畫上了問號。保加利亞政府因為歐盟議會的重壓，已經宣布暫停該計劃。
If EU leaders are irritated by Serbia, so are the Russians. Russia's Gazprom Neft has a 51% stake in NIS, Serbia's main oil company. On August 11th it was revealed that the police were investigating the 2008 privatisation of NIS. Mr Vucic has implied that the Russians understand that this is domestic political score-settling. Yet the Russians are clearly furious. They were said to have got fantastic terms for the deal after siding with Serbia over Kosovo.
如果說，歐盟已經對塞爾維亞忍無可忍，俄羅斯也是這樣。俄羅斯天然氣工業股份有限公司持有塞爾維亞主要石油公司NIS 51%的股份。8月11日，有報道含蓄地指出警方正在調查NIS公司2008年私有化事件。希奇宣稱俄方已經理解該事件是塞爾維亞的家務事。然而，很明顯俄羅斯已經極度暴怒了。自從他們在科索沃問題上支持塞爾維亞政府之后，他們一直在這項交易中占據極為有利的位置。
Mr Vucic will go on trying to satisfy both conductors. As long as he causes no problems in Kosovo, says Dimitar Bechev of the London School of Economics, the West will forgive him. He adds that it is hard to be tough on Serbia for selling Russia raspberries when France is selling it warships. Yet Serbia must eventually lean the EU's way to protect its candidacy.
倫敦經濟學院的達米塔·貝什表示，只要科索沃地區不出差池，希奇必將繼續嘗試同時討好雙方，同時，西方也將原諒他。他還表示，在塞爾維亞，人們很難在法國正在推銷他的軍艦時叫賣來自俄羅斯的木梅。然而，塞爾維亞人為了保住候選人的位置，最終必將傾向歐盟。
Meanwhile in Kosovo, whose security is provided by a NATO-led force, most of Ukraine's 160 troops are pulling out. They have more urgent business than helping to protect Kosovo's Serbs.
同時，在由北約軍隊擔任安防事務的科索沃地區，來自烏克蘭的160人大多數已經離開。相比保護科索沃的塞爾維亞人，他們現在有更急切的任務。
