World on the edge
命懸一線的世界

Whatever happens in Congress, the crisis is now global; that means governments must work together
無論美國會意思如何，此次危機已經是演變為全球性的了；這就意味著各國政府必須協同作戰。

AMERICA’S Congress is not used to being second-guessed. But as lawmakers wrestled in the Capitol, world stockmarkets have been giving real-time odds on the Bush administration’s $700 billion bail-out becoming law. After the plan’s thrashing by the House of Representatives on September 29th, spurred on by voters’ loathing of “casino capitalism”, investors panicked. Yet as The Economist went to press, they were optimistic that, after winning the Senate’s approval on October 1st, the plan would pass.
美國國會還沒有習慣被猜來猜去（不曾被猜測過），但隨著法律制定者們在國會大廈中的角力，全球股市都在時時關注布什政府7000億美元救助法案的進程。9月29日救助計劃因選民們對“賭場資本主義”的痛恨而遭到眾院拒絕，這個消息讓投資者陷入一片恐慌之中。不過在經濟學家付印的時候他們還是很樂觀的，因為他們在10月1日贏得了參院的批準，該方案應該會通過。

Even if it does, that should not be a cause for optimism. Look beyond the stockmarkets, especially at the seized-up money markets, and there is little to see except bank failures, emergency rescues and high anxiety in the credit markets. These forces are drawing the financial system closer to disaster and the rich world to the edge of a nasty recession (see article). The bail-out package should mitigate the problems, but it will not avert them.
即使方案（放案）通過了，人們也沒有理由變得樂觀：如果目光放遠些，不單單盯著股市、特別是已然停頓的貨幣市場，那么就除了銀行倒閉、緊急救助和充斥焦慮的信貸市場外，就別奢望能看到別的景象了。這些力量正將金融系統拖向災難，也正將發達國家拽向兇殘的經濟蕭條邊緣。整體救助計劃（異化）應該可以緩解問題，但卻無法完全避免。

The crisis is spreading in two directions—across the Atlantic to Europe, and out of the financial markets into the real economy. Governments have been dealing with it disaster by disaster. They have struggled to gain control not just because of the speed of contagion but also because policymakers, and the public they serve, have failed fully to grasp the breadth and depth of the crisis.
危機向著兩個方向展開：地緣上越過大西洋到達歐洲，范圍上突破金融市場進入實體經濟領域。政府一直應對這接二連三的災難，他們努力進行控制的原因不僅是因為危機蔓延的速度，還因為政府所服務的決策者和公眾完全沒有領會到此次危機的深度和廣度。

What’s the Icelandic for “domino”?
冰島人也明白骨牌效應

Step forward, Peer Steinbrück, Germany’s finance minister, who rashly declared on September 25th that America was “the source…and the focus of the crisis”, before heralding the end of its role as the financial superpower. Within days, the focus shifted and Mr Steinbrück and his officials were obliged to arrange a Euro35 billion ($51 billion) loan from German banks and the German government to save Hypo Real Estate, the country’s second-biggest property lender.
德國財長施泰因布呂克在9月25日站出來魯莽的宣稱美國在結束超級金融大國地位之前一直是“危機的源泉和中心”。而數日內該中心旋即發生了轉移，施泰恩布 呂克先生和他的同僚們從德國銀行和德國政府強行安排了350億歐元（約合510億美元），用以拯救Hypo Real Estate這個全國第二大的抵押貸款銀行。

The hapless Mr Steinbrück is not alone. European banks were collapsing at a dizzying pace even as Christian Noyer, governor of the Bank of France, declared that “there is no drama in front of us.” Hypo Real Estate was just one of five banks in seven European countries bailed out in three days. Belgium, Luxembourg and the Netherlands carved up Fortis, a big bancassurer; Britain nationalised Bradford & Bingley; Belgium, France and Luxembourg saved Dexia; and Iceland rescued Glitnir. Separately, Ireland took Euro 400 billion of contingent liabilities onto the national balance sheet, when it stood behind the deposits and debts of its six large banks and building societies. You have to wonder what Mr Noyer regards as dramatic.
倒霉的施泰因布呂克先生卻并不孤單：即使法國央行理事Christian Noyer,宣布“我們面前沒有什么悲劇”，但歐洲銀行還是以令人暈眩的速度進入崩塌狀態。Hypo Real Estate只是三天內歐洲七國進行救助的五家銀行之一。何比盧三國共同救助了大型銀行保險服務商——Fortis；英國抵押貸款供應商Bradford & Bingley變身國有化；法比盧又救助了比利時德克夏銀行；冰島救助了格里特利爾銀行。除此以外，愛爾蘭使用國家資產承擔了價值4000億歐元的或有性 負債，當然這是因為六家大銀行以及房屋社團提供了存款和債務作為后盾。至此，人們不得不思考一下Noyer先生所謂的悲劇性到底指什么。

By some measures, many European banks look more vulnerable than their American counterparts do—and that is saying quite something, given the past week’s forced sale of Washington Mutual, America’s biggest thrift, and Wachovia, its fourth-biggest commercial bank. In America, outside Wall Street, the banks have lent 96 cents for each $1 of deposits. Continental European banks have lent roughly Euro1.40 for each Euro1 of deposits. They have to borrow the rest from money-market investors, who are not especially confident just now. Some Europeans, including the British, Irish and Spanish banks, have housing busts of their own. And they must contend with the toxic American securities they bought by the billion, as well as their own slowing economies.
從某些方面看來，歐洲銀行看起來比他們的美國同行要脆弱得多：鑒于在過去的一周里，全美最大的互助儲蓄銀行華互以及第四大商業銀行瓦霍維亞銀行先后被強行 拍賣，這很說明問題。在美國除華爾街以外的其它銀行中，每一美元的存款被放貸支出96美分；歐洲中央銀行基于1歐元的儲蓄卻幾乎貸出了1.4歐元，因此他 們不得不從金融市場投資者那里借入存貸差額部分，而后者目前卻是格外的不自信。包括英國、愛爾蘭和西班牙在內的歐洲銀行都遭受房市蕭條的影響；同時還必須 （滿足）對抗花費數十億購買的美國不良資產和自己緩慢發展的經濟。