評(píng)論
打印
Fellow UN agencies, experts in artificial intelligence, representatives of industry, ladies and gentlemen,
聯(lián)合國(guó)機(jī)構(gòu)的同事們、人工智能領(lǐng)域的專家們、業(yè)界代表們、女士們、先生們，
I welcome this opportunity to learn from the vast amount of technical expertise assembled in this room.
今天這里匯集了大量技術(shù)專長(zhǎng)，我很高興能有此機(jī)會(huì)從中學(xué)習(xí)。
Market analysts predict that intelligent machines, programmed to think and reason like the human mind, will revolutionize health care in the very near future. In fact, proponents of the transformative power of artificial intelligence usually give two examples: self-driving cars and the delivery of health care.
市場(chǎng)分析師們預(yù)言，在不久的將來(lái)，經(jīng)過(guò)編程能夠像人腦一樣思考和推理的智能機(jī)器將在衛(wèi)生保健領(lǐng)域引起突破性變革。確切說(shuō)，人工智能變革力量的支持者們常常會(huì)舉兩個(gè)例子：自駕車和衛(wèi)生保健服務(wù)的提供。
This year's influential Internet Trends Report, released last week in the USA, covers the effects of new technology on health care for the first time, again predicting a huge transformative impact.
上周在美國(guó)發(fā)布了今年的《互聯(lián)網(wǎng)趨勢(shì)報(bào)告》，很有影響力，首次論及了新技術(shù)對(duì)衛(wèi)生保健的影響，再次預(yù)言了巨大的變革性沖擊。
Artificial intelligence is a new frontier for the health sector. As so often happens, the speed of technological advances has outpaced our ability to reflect these advances in sound public policies and address a number of ethical dilemmas.
人工智能是衛(wèi)生部門的新前沿。然而正如經(jīng)常發(fā)生的情況一樣，技術(shù)進(jìn)步的速度超過(guò)了我們的能力，我們難以及時(shí)在合理的公共政策中反映這些進(jìn)步，并解決一系列倫理難題。
Many questions do not yet have answers and we are not yet sure we know all the questions that need to be asked.
許多問(wèn)題尚未找到答案，而且我們對(duì)所有需要問(wèn)的問(wèn)題也尚不確定。
Much of the enthusiasm for the use of smart machines to improve health care reflects the perspectives of wealthy countries and well-resourced private companies. We need a broader perspective.
目前熱衷于使用智能機(jī)器來(lái)改善衛(wèi)生保健服務(wù)的多是富裕國(guó)家和資源豐富的私營(yíng)公司。我們需要聽(tīng)取更廣泛的意見(jiàn)。
I find it wise to look at potential benefits, risks, and ethical dilemmas in the context of several worldwide trends that shape priority health needs.
我認(rèn)為明智的做法是，結(jié)合決定重點(diǎn)衛(wèi)生需求的若干全球趨勢(shì)來(lái)審視潛在的利益、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和倫理難題。
Over the past decade, I have visited many countries where the majority of health facilities lack such basics as electricity and running water. I would be hard-pressed to sell these countries on the advantages of artificial intelligence when even standard machines for analysing patient samples or sterilizing equipment cannot run for want of electrical supplies.
在過(guò)去十年中，我訪問(wèn)過(guò)許多國(guó)家，它們的大多數(shù)衛(wèi)生機(jī)構(gòu)都缺乏電力和自來(lái)水等基本要素。在這些國(guó)家，因?yàn)槿狈﹄娏?yīng)連用于分析患者樣本或消毒設(shè)備的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)機(jī)器也不能運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)，我實(shí)在很難向它們宣傳人工智能的優(yōu)勢(shì)。
Any discussion of the potential of smart machines to revolutionize the delivery of health care must be alert to these huge gaps in basic capacities.
關(guān)于智能機(jī)器革新衛(wèi)生保健服務(wù)的潛力的任何討論都必須注意基本能力方面的這些巨大差距。
At the same time, I have also observed the ubiquitous presence of smartphone even in the most resource-constrained settings. Schools may not have toilets or latrines. Children may not have shoes. But smart phones are ready to hand.
同時(shí)，我也看到智能手機(jī)無(wú)處不在，即使在資源最有限的環(huán)境中也是如此。學(xué)校可能沒(méi)有廁所，孩子可能沒(méi)有鞋子，但智能手機(jī)卻便捷可得。
The traditional dichotomy between health conditions in rich and poor countries no longer holds. Health everywhere is being shaped by the same dominant forces, namely population ageing, rapid unplanned urbanization, and the globalized marketing of unhealthy products.
窮國(guó)與富國(guó)衛(wèi)生狀況之間的傳統(tǒng)二分法已不再成立。決定世界各地衛(wèi)生狀況的是相同的主導(dǎo)力量，即人口老齡化，迅速無(wú)計(jì)劃的城市化，以及不健康產(chǎn)品的全球化營(yíng)銷。
Under the pressure of these forces, chronic noncommunicable diseases have overtaken infectious diseases as the leading killers worldwide.
在這些力量的壓力下，慢性非傳染性疾病已經(jīng)超過(guò)了傳染病，成為全世界的主要?dú)⑹帧?/div>
Diseases like heart disease, cancer, diabetes, and chronic respiratory diseases are profoundly shaped by human behaviours and the environments in which people make their lifestyle choices.
心臟病、癌癥、糖尿病和慢性呼吸道疾病等疾病深受人類行為和促成人們生活方式選擇的環(huán)境的影響。
These are among the most democratic of all diseases, affecting all income groups in all places. They are also the most costly.
這些屬于最普遍的疾病，影響到世界各地各種收入層次的人群。同時(shí)也是代價(jià)最高的。
Could artificial intelligence help improve lifestyle choices? Could smart machines help consumers understand the meaning of food labels or interpret restaurant menu options? Could a smartphone app help people with diabetes maintain good metabolic control between visits to a doctor?
人工智能可以幫助改善生活方式的選擇嗎？智能機(jī)器能幫助消費(fèi)者了解食品標(biāo)簽的含義或解釋餐廳菜單中的選項(xiàng)嗎？智能手機(jī)應(yīng)用程序能幫助糖尿病患者在兩次就診之間保持良好的代謝控制嗎？
Moreover, the demands of long-term if not life-long treatment for chronic conditions have placed unsustainable pressure on an overloaded health workforce. The high-level Commission on health employment and economic growth estimates that the management of NCDs and conditions like dementia will require 40 million new health workers by 2030 in wealthy countries. In contrast, the developing world is expected to experience a shortfall of 18 million health workers.
此外，慢性病的長(zhǎng)期（如果說(shuō)不是終生）治療需求對(duì)負(fù)擔(dān)已過(guò)重的衛(wèi)生人力施加了無(wú)法承受的壓力。據(jù)衛(wèi)生領(lǐng)域就業(yè)和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)高級(jí)別委員會(huì)估計(jì)，到2030年，富裕國(guó)家為管理非傳染性疾病和癡呆癥等病癥將需要新增4000萬(wàn)衛(wèi)生工作者。相比之下，發(fā)展中國(guó)家預(yù)計(jì)會(huì)短缺1800萬(wàn)衛(wèi)生工作者。
The waves of populism and anti-globalization sentiment that are sweeping through some parts of the world are driven, in part, by technological advances that have eliminated many jobs, especially for the middle class.
在世界一些地區(qū)蔓延的民粹主義和反全球化情緒，部分上是因?yàn)榧夹g(shù)進(jìn)步淘汰了許多工作，尤其是對(duì)于中產(chǎn)階級(jí)而言。
Given the significant shortage of health workers, the application of artificial intelligence to health care could potentially reduce some of the burden on overloaded health staff. This is one advantage: revolutionary new technologies will certainly meet some resistance from the medical profession, but not, for the time being, because they threaten jobs.
鑒于衛(wèi)生工作者嚴(yán)重短缺，將人工智能應(yīng)用于衛(wèi)生保健可能會(huì)減少已超負(fù)荷的衛(wèi)生人員的部分負(fù)擔(dān)。這是一個(gè)優(yōu)勢(shì)。革命性的新技術(shù)將必定會(huì)遇到來(lái)自醫(yī)學(xué)界的一些阻力，但這不是（至少目前不是）因?yàn)闀?huì)威脅到就業(yè)。
Given the power of super computers and superchips to mine and organize huge amounts of data, it is easy to envision a number of applications in the health sector.
鑒于超級(jí)計(jì)算機(jī)和超級(jí)芯片具有挖掘和組織大量數(shù)據(jù)的能力，因此很容易為衛(wèi)生部門設(shè)想一些應(yīng)用程序。
As we all know, health information is often messy and poorly structured. In many cases, it is systematically collected but not systematically analysed and used. Artificial intelligence can give that data a structure, and by detecting patterns, guide some medical decisions.
眾所周知，衛(wèi)生信息往往凌亂且結(jié)構(gòu)欠佳。在許多情況下，能夠系統(tǒng)地收集卻不能系統(tǒng)地進(jìn)行分析和使用。人工智能可以為數(shù)據(jù)提供一個(gè)結(jié)構(gòu)，并通過(guò)檢測(cè)模式來(lái)指導(dǎo)一些醫(yī)療決策。
Supercomputers can accelerate the screening of novel molecules in the search for new drugs. They can speed up the reading and interpretation of results from radiographs, electrocardiograms, ultrasound and CT scans, and even the analysis of blood samples.
超級(jí)計(jì)算機(jī)可以在尋找新藥方面加速對(duì)新分子的篩選。它們可以加快對(duì)X光片，心電圖，超聲和CT掃描結(jié)果的讀取和闡釋，甚至可加快對(duì)血液樣本的分析。
By reducing the likelihood of human errors, they can contribute to more precise diagnoses and predictions of patient prognoses, and to enhanced patient safety.
通過(guò)減少人為錯(cuò)誤的可能性，它們可以有助于更精確地判斷和預(yù)測(cè)患者預(yù)后情況，并增強(qiáng)患者安全。
Other applications currently under development include personal use of smartphones to communicate symptoms and obtain a diagnosis from the cloud. Enthusiastic developers see this as a way to cut down health care costs by keeping the worried well from flooding clinics and emergency rooms.
目前開(kāi)發(fā)中的其它應(yīng)用程序包括個(gè)人使用智能手機(jī)來(lái)通報(bào)癥狀并從云端獲得診斷。滿腔熱情的開(kāi)發(fā)人員認(rèn)為這是減少衛(wèi)生保健費(fèi)用的一條途徑，可避免憂慮者洪水般涌到診所和急診室。
For patients recovering from a stroke or an accident, developers have already introduced a system, involving sensor technology and the latest advances in cloud computing, that provides tailor-made physiotherapy that can be performed in homes. Immediate feedback scores the number of right and wrong movements. The cost of the system is estimated at one tenth of that for facility-based physiotherapy.
對(duì)于正在從中風(fēng)或事故中恢復(fù)的患者，開(kāi)發(fā)人員已經(jīng)采用了一個(gè)系統(tǒng)，涉及傳感器技術(shù)和云計(jì)算的最新進(jìn)展，提供可在家中進(jìn)行的量身定制的物理治療，并可立即提供反饋標(biāo)出正確與錯(cuò)誤的動(dòng)作數(shù)量。該系統(tǒng)的成本估計(jì)為基于設(shè)施的物理治療的十分之一。
