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2. Stability or fragility
2、穩定或脆弱
What about the second big choice—between stability and fragility? Just as there are present and future threats to growth, there are similar threats to financial stability.
第二個重大選擇是穩定與脆弱之間的選擇。經濟增長面臨當前和未來因素的威脅，金融穩定也面臨類似的威脅。
While the real economy might suffer from too little investment, the financial sector might be flying too close to the sun. Putting it another way, there is too little economic risk taking, and too much financial risk taking.
一方面投資太少可能影響實體經濟發展，另一方面金融部門可能承擔過高風險。換句話說，經濟風險承擔不足，而金融風險承擔過度。
Again, monetary policy needs to stay accommodative, to get the growth we need. Yet one side effect is the danger, once again, of a rush toward reckless risk taking.
此外，為了實現必要增長，必須繼續實行寬松的貨幣政策，但會產生副作用，即不計后果地承擔風險所帶來的危害。
While there are a number of warning signs, the risks are particularly acute in the nonbank sector. One example: mutual funds now account for 27 percent of global high-yield debt, twice as much as in 2007. At the same time, risks are more concentrated—the top ten global asset management firms now control a whopping $19 trillion. This is larger than the world’s largest economy—the United States.
盡管有不少預警信號，非銀行部門的風險尤其嚴重。比如，目前共同基金占全球高收益債務的27%，是2007年的兩倍。同時，風險越來越集中，全球前十大資產管理公司現在控制了19萬億的龐大資產，規模比全球最大經濟體美國還大。
History teaches us a clear lesson—the bigger the boom, the bigger the bust. A sudden shift in sentiment could easily cascade across the entire globe.
歷史清楚地告訴我們——繁榮時越是興旺，蕭條時的破壞就愈嚴重。情緒的突然轉變很容易延伸到全球。
This feeds into the longer-term issue that affects financial stability—the increasing interconnectedness of the world economy. As you know, financial flows can zap and zoom across the world at lightning speed.
這就造成了影響金融穩定的長期問題——世界經濟日益增強的互聯性。我們都知道，資金能迅速地在全球流動。
The degree of financial integration has jumped tenfold since the IMF was founded. In the two decades before the crisis, international bank lending—as a share of world GDP—rose by 250 percent.
自基金組織成立以來，金融一體化程度已提高到從前的十倍。危機爆發前的二十年里，國際銀行貸款占世界GDP的比重上升了250%。
This interconnectedness offers great benefits—allowing more people to access global financial networks. But it also comes with a dark side: it makes financial crises more likely to occur, and more virulent when they do occur. 2008 was a stark reminder of this.
互聯性帶來了巨大的惠益，使更多人能進入全球金融網絡。但同時也有不好的一面：金融危機發生的可能性增大，爆發時影響更惡劣。2008年就說明了這一點。
Ultimately, we need to be able to garner the good and banish the bad. We need to be proactive, not passive.
歸根結底，我們要有能力趨利避害，要積極主動，而不是消極被動。
As Tagore once said, “You can’t cross the sea merely by standing and staring at the water”.
正如泰戈爾所言，“你無法只站在那里看海就能渡?！薄?/div>
That means we need the right tools and policies. If financial markets are more challenging, then policies must be more powerful, and regulators and supervisors must be better equipped. The bottom line? We must complete the financial sector reform agenda, and we must continue to update it as financial minds are creative and fertile in seeking out new loopholes.
這說明我們需要恰當的工具和政策。如果金融市場面臨更多挑戰，那就必須采取更有力的政策和更完備的監管。最終，我們必須完成金融部門改革議程，必須不斷更新，因為豐富且有創意的金融觀念總能找出新的漏洞。
We have made good progress, especially on banking regulation. Yet we still need to overcome the too-important-to-fail problem. We need better rules for nonbanks, better monitoring of shadow banks, and better safety and transparency over derivatives. We need to strengthen macroprudential safeguards.
我們取得了長足的進展，特別是在銀行監管領域。但我們仍需克服銀行太大以至于不能倒閉的問題。我們要進一步制定非銀行監管規則，更好地監測影子銀行，提高衍生品的安全性和透明度。我們還要加強宏觀審慎保障。
And let’s be candid: we need to see a change in culture and behavior. We need to move away from the myopic mentality that led to the crisis—the tendency to prize profit over prudence, self-interest over service, excess over ethics.
坦率地講，我們要在文化和行為方面有所改變。我們要拋棄造成危機的淺薄思想，這種傾向導致利益凌駕于審慎之上，個人利益高于服務意識，貪婪戰勝道德。
The IMF has a key role to play in coping with this new world of interconnections.
基金組織在應對這種新的世界互聯性中發揮重要作用。
A world of large capital flows means that we need a large global safety net. Regional arrangements—including the new BRICs contingency reserve arrangement—certainly have an important role to play. But the IMF, as the only truly global institution focused on financial stability, must have adequate instruments and resources.
大量資金流意味著我們要有大規模的全球安全網。區域性安排（包括新的金磚國家應急儲備安排）無疑扮演著重要角色。但基金組織作為唯一一個重點關注金融穩定的真正全球性機構，必須掌握充分的工具和資源。
It is a lesson that has been learned many times over the past 70 years: a strong global economy requires a strong IMF.
過去70年的經歷已經多次告訴我們：強大的全球經濟需要有力的基金組織。
3. Solidarity or seclusion
3、團結或閉塞
Let me now turn to the third and final big choice facing us—solidarity versus seclusion. Do we lift high the banner of cooperation or do we sink low into the mud of provincialism?
現在我談談我們要做的第三個也是最后一個重要選擇——團結與閉塞。我們是否高舉合作大旗？抑或是否深陷排外主義的泥潭？
You all know the answer. You know that the most fertile ground is common ground; the best form of self-help is mutual help; the best kind of knowledge is shared knowledge. This is why we are all here today.
答案不言自明。我們都知道，最肥沃的土地是共有的土地；幫助別人才能更好地幫助自己；最睿智的知識是懂得分享知識。這正是我們今天匯聚一堂的原因。
It is why you are members of the IMF!
這也是你們加入基金組織的原因！
Yet you also know that the global economy is undergoing radical shifts. Fifty years ago, the emerging markets and developing economies accounted for about a quarter of world GDP. Today, it is half, and rising rapidly. During the global crisis, it was the emerging markets that contributed most to global growth.
但諸位也清楚，世界經濟正在發生根本性改變。50年前新興市場和發展中經濟體約占世界GDP的四分之一，而今天這一比重已經達到一半，而且還在迅速上升。全球危機期間，正是新興市場為全球增長做出了最大貢獻。
This diffusion of power is not restricted to nation states. Aided by technology, we also see the rapid rise of a more diverse network of global stakeholders: NGOs, cities, and even citizen activists. Powered by social media, they have proven their ability to force policy change.
力量的傳播不只局限于民族國家。在科技的推動下，更加多元化的全球利益攸關方網絡迅速崛起：非政府組織、城市甚至公民活動家。他們通過社會媒體展示了自己迫使政策改變的能力。
This new reality demands a new response—but not a new philosophy. It requires us to update, adapt, and deepen our modes of global cooperation. It requires using the wonders of technology for the betterment of humanity. It requires what I have a called a “new multilateralism”.
新現象需要有新回應，但不是新理念。這需要我們更新、調整和深化全球合作模式，需要我們利用科技奇跡為人類謀福祉，需要促進我所說的“新多邊主義”。
In the words of Maya Angelou: “to give birth again to the dream”.
正如瑪雅·安吉羅所說，“要給予夢想以新生”。
What does this mean in practical terms? For a start, it means a re-commitment to the values of open trade and investment. It means resisting the lure of “beggar-thy-neighbor” economics. It means placing the global good above individual self-interest.
這句話有什么現實意義呢？首先，這意味著要重拾開放貿易和投資價值觀，意味著要抵御以鄰為壑經濟理念的誘惑，還意味著全球利益高于一己私利。
There are three areas where progress is vital:
以下三個領域的進展至關重要：
First, in the financial sector: we need cooperation to come to an agreement on the cross-border resolution of megabanks.
首先是金融部門：我們要開展合作，就超大型銀行的跨境處置問題達成一致。
Second, we know that tax competition especially hurts low-income countries as they strive to mobilize badly-needed revenue. The international community needs to go further in making it more difficult to shift taxes from one country to another simply for profit.
其次，我們明白稅收競爭給低收入國家帶來的危害更大，因為這些國家正努力獲得亟需的收入。國際社會需進一步努力，阻止僅以獲利為目的的國家間稅收轉移。
Third, on external imbalances: we know that behind every current account deficit lies a current account surplus. Countries on both sides must take responsibility for balance and stability.
最后是外部失衡。我們清楚，一個國家的經常賬戶出現逆差，就有相應的國家出現順差。雙方都有責任保持平衡和穩定。
Renewed solidarity also calls for global action to turn the tide of climate change. 2015 is shaping up to be a make-or-break year. If we miss this chance, then we are failing the world’s poorest people, the generations to come, and the planet.
重新實現團結還需要采取全球行動，扭轉氣候變化態勢。2015年是成敗攸關的一年。錯過這個機會，意味著我們有負于世界最貧窮人口，有負于后輩子孫，也有負于整個世界。
So we must not fail. The new multilateralism must prevail. And the IMF has a pivotal role to play.
所以我們不能失敗。推行新多邊主義高于一切。而基金組織發揮著重要作用。
Every day—and often nights as well—our magnificent staff and Executive Board are working hard for you. They are a uniquely talented group of people—dedicated to the ideals of international public service, steadfast in their zeal to make the world a better place. I am immensely proud of them—and all of those who have served the Fund so well over these 70 years. I know you are proud too.
基金組織出色的工作人員和執行董事會夜以繼日地辛勤工作。他們出類拔萃，致力于提供國際公共服務，始終保持著讓世界更美好的激情。我由衷地為你們自豪，為過去70年來所有為基金組織做出卓越貢獻的人而自豪。而且我知道，你們也一樣為之自豪。
Here, let me pay special tribute to a dear member of our family, Wabel Abdallah. Wabel was our resident representative in Afghanistan, and he was brutally killed by a terrorist attack in Kabul earlier this year. He represented the Fund at its very best. Wabel devoted his life to helping the people of Afghanistan, and he died doing his duty. We miss him dearly. As they say in Arabic, “lel fakeed al rahma”—mercy to the departed.
在此，我要特別向我們大家庭里親愛的一員Wabel Abdallah致以敬意。Wabel是基金組織在阿富汗的常駐代表，在今年前段時間喀布爾爆發的恐怖襲擊中慘遭殺害。他展現了基金組織最好的一面。Wabel為幫助阿富汗人民獻出了寶貴的生命，為履行自己的職責獻出了生命。我們深深地緬懷他。正如阿拉伯語中所說的“lel fakeed al rahma”——愿逝者安息。
At the Fund, we have mourned Wabel’s loss together. But we are honoring him day by day through our continued commitment to global cooperation. This includes our work with higher-risk countries, where it is more important than ever to work toward sound institutions, so that people will one day face a better and more stable future.
在基金組織，我們一起悼念Wabel。但一如既往地推動全球合作更表達了我們平日對他的尊敬。這包括與高風險國家開展合作。在這些國家，努力建立穩定的制度，使人們最終能有更美好、更穩定的未來，具有前所未有的重要性。
We will continue to adapt to changing realities on the ground. And we must strive to be even more representative of our dynamic global membership.
我們將繼續適應不斷變化的現實情況。我們必須努力更好地體現全球成員國的動態發展。
That makes completing the 2010 governance reforms so crucial. Our membership knows what needs to be done.
有鑒于此，完成2010年治理改革至關重要。各成員國都知道需要做些什么。
The right choice must be made.
我們必須做出正確的選擇。
Conclusion: Our Choices
結語：我們的選擇
Mr. Chairman, Governors, let me conclude:
主席先生、各位理事，最后我想說：
At this key fork in the road, let us choose acceleration over stagnation, stability over fragility, solidarity over seclusion.
在這個關鍵的岔路口上，讓我們選擇加速而不是停滯，穩定而不是脆弱，團結而不是閉塞。
Let us choose the path of 1944, not 1914.
我們要選擇的是1944年而不是1914年那樣的道路。
I began with a popular children’s story, let me end with another. In J.K. Rowling’s Harry Potter, the protagonist is given this key piece of advice: “It is our choices, Harry, that show what we truly are, far more than our abilities”.
我開頭給大家講了一個童話故事，最后再給大家講個故事。J.K.羅琳所著的《哈里·波特》中，男主角得到了一條重要的建議：“這是我們的選擇，哈里，它展示了我們的本色，而不僅僅是我們的能力”。
Our choices.
我們的選擇。
Thank you.
謝謝。
