評論
打印
Mr. Chairman, Governors, honored guests:
主席先生、各位理事、貴賓們：
On behalf of the IMF, let me warmly welcome you to these Annual Meetings. And on the occasion of our 70th anniversary, let me wish you, and all of our 188 member countries, a very happy birthday!
我謹代表基金組織，熱忱歡迎各位參加本屆年會。值此基金組織70周年紀念日之際，我在此祝愿諸位以及188個成員國生日快樂！
I would like to recognize my good friend and excellent colleague, President Jim Kim, and his great teams who are doing such good work at the World Bank. Happy birthday to you too!
我要感謝我的好友和同事世界銀行行長金墉先生和他的團隊，他們做得非常出色。也祝你們生日快樂！
This is a moment to reflect on the 70-year journey that we have all taken together. Even more importantly, it is a moment to look ahead. The choices we make today will shape our future.
此時此刻，我們要回想一起走過的70年歷程，但更重要的是展望未來。今天的選擇將決定我們有怎樣的未來。
So let me begin with a story:
下面我想先給大家講個故事：
In Lewis Carroll’s classic, Alice in Wonderland, there is a scene in which young Alice comes to a fork in the road, where she meets the Cheshire Cat. Alice asks the cat which way she should go:
路易絲·卡羅的經(jīng)典小說《愛麗斯夢游仙境》中有這樣一個場景，小愛麗絲在一個岔路口遇到了柴郡貓，于是她問自己該走哪條路：
“That depends a good deal on where you want to get to,” says the cat.
“這得看你想去哪兒，”貓回答說。
“I don’t really care where,” says Alice.
“我并不特別在意去哪兒，”愛麗絲說。
“Then it doesn’t matter which way you go”, says the Cheshire cat.
“那你走哪條路也都無所謂了，”貓再次回答。
Why do I begin with this story? For a simple reason: the path we choose at a critical fork in the road has crucial consequences.It matters where we want to go in order to decide which way we go.
為什么要先講這個故事呢？原因很簡單：在這個關(guān)鍵的岔路口上，我們選擇的道路將產(chǎn)生至關(guān)重要的影響。
Forks in the Road
岔路口
Almost exactly a hundred years ago, the world took a dramatically wrong turn. This was a period of great technological advances, a time of optimism and openness. And yet, instead of using these technological wonders for the betterment of humanity, they were turned toward massive destruction.
約一百年前發(fā)生了一個完全錯誤的轉(zhuǎn)折。那是一個科技飛速進步、樂觀開放的時代。但這些科技奇跡并沒有給人類帶來更多福祉，而是造成了巨大的破壞。
The gates of cooperation were bolted shut.
合作之門就這樣關(guān)閉了。
Because of this wrong turn, the world went through three decades of carnage, chaos, and calamity. But then something changed.
這個錯誤的轉(zhuǎn)折開啟了三十年的屠殺、混亂和災難。但最后發(fā)生了變化。
Seventy years ago, in 1944, the world faced another fork in the road. This time, it chose the right path. It was the original “multilateral moment”, which gave birth to institutions of cooperation like the Fund and the Bank.
70年前，也就是1944年，世界再次站在了分岔路上。這次它選擇了正確的道路。這便是最初的“多邊時刻”，從此誕生了基金組織和世界銀行等合作機構(gòu)。
John Maynard Keyes called it “that bigger thing we are bringing to birth”.
約翰·梅納德·凱恩斯稱之為“我們正在創(chuàng)造的更偉大的事”。
This choice has paid off over the decades—with rising prosperity, greater stability, and lower poverty. The IMF has played an essential role: helping to fight crisis after crisis; helping low-income and transition countries gain a foothold in the global economy; and helping to build capacity, strength, and resilience across our entire membership.
過去幾十年，這一選擇已經(jīng)帶來了回報：各國越來越繁榮，世界越來越穩(wěn)定，貧困也得以減輕。基金組織發(fā)揮了必不可少的作用。它幫助應對各種危機，幫助低收入和轉(zhuǎn)型國家在全球經(jīng)濟中獲得一席之地，幫助所有成員國開展能力建設，提高實力和恢復能力。
Today, the Fund continues to respond to conditions on the ground, forcefully and flexibly. Since 2008, we have committed almost $700 billion to countries in need, provided training to all of our members, and technical assistance to 90 percent of them. Over the last several months alone, we provided fresh financial assistance to Ukraine, the Arab transition countries, and the African nations hit by Ebola.
今天，基金組織一如既往地以有力而靈活的方式應對發(fā)生的各種情況。2008年以來，我們承諾向有需求的國家提供近7000億美元的貸款，向所有成員國提供培訓，并向90%的成員國提供技術(shù)援助。僅幾個月前，我們剛剛向烏克蘭、阿拉伯轉(zhuǎn)型國家以及受埃博拉病毒影響的非洲國家提供了資金援助。
Seventy years after Bretton Woods, the international community stands at another fork in the road. The tried-and-true modes of cooperation seem to be fraying around the edges. The sustainability of the global economic engine itself is increasingly being questioned.
布雷頓森林會議召開70年后，國際社會再次站在了岔路口上。原本行之有效的合作方式似乎開始分崩離析。全球經(jīng)濟動力可持續(xù)性本身越來越為人質(zhì)疑。
Can it really deliver the jobs, the incomes, the better living standards that people aspire to?
這種方式真的能像人們希望的那樣創(chuàng)造就業(yè)，提高收入，改善生活水平？
There are three key collective choices to be made:
我們要共同做出三個主要選擇：
First, how do we achieve the growth and jobs needed to advance prosperity and ensure social harmony? I would call this the choice between acceleration and stagnation.
第一，我們?nèi)绾螌崿F(xiàn)促進繁榮和確保社會和諧所必需的增長和就業(yè)？我把這稱為加速與停滯之間的抉擇。
Second, how do we make this interconnected world a more inclusive, safer place for all of us to thrive? This is the choice between stability and fragility.
第二，我們?nèi)绾问惯@個互聯(lián)的世界更包容、更安全，使我們都能繁榮發(fā)展？這是穩(wěn)定與脆弱之間的選擇。
Third, how do we strengthen cooperation and multilateralism, instead of isolationism and insularity? This is the choice between solidarity and seclusion.
第三，我們?nèi)绾渭訌姾献骱投噙呏髁x，而不是加劇隔離和狹隘？這是團結(jié)與閉塞之間的選擇。
Our future hinges on our choices.
今天的選擇決定了明天的命運。
1. Acceleration or stagnation
1、加速或停滯
Let me start with the first and most basic choice of all—acceleration or stagnation. The prospects for growth and jobs. When we look down the road, we all know that there are huge obstacles in our path.
我先講一下第一個也是大家面臨的最基本的選擇——加速或停滯，也就是增長和就業(yè)的前景。展望前路，我們會發(fā)現(xiàn)將有重重障礙。
We experience unprecedented demographic change, as the workforce in many of the world’s most dynamic economies—both advanced and emerging—enters their twilight years. In less than a decade, the over-65s will outnumber the under-5s—for the first time ever.
我們經(jīng)歷了前所未有的人口變化，許多最有活力的經(jīng)濟體（既包括先進經(jīng)濟體也包括新興經(jīng)濟體）進入勞動力衰退期。在不到十年的時間里，65歲以上人口將首次超過5歲以下人口。
There has been a staggering rise in inequality—7 out of 10 people in the world today live in countries where inequality has increased over the last three decades. And yet, we know that excessive inequality saps growth, inhibits inclusion, and undermines trust and social capital.
不平等現(xiàn)象顯著加劇，今天每10個人中有7個人所在的國度，過去三十年來經(jīng)歷了越來越嚴重的不平等現(xiàn)象。然而，我們知道過度不平等會妨礙增長，損害包容性，破壞信任和社會資本。
And again, we live in a period of dramatic innovation, with all its potential. But the digital revolution is not job-intensive, and it could contribute to further inequalities.
另外，我們生活在一個快速創(chuàng)新、充滿巨大潛力的時代。但數(shù)字革命不會創(chuàng)造太多就業(yè)機會，反而加劇了不平等現(xiàn)象。
If we are not careful, the ghosts of the 19th century will haunt the 21st century.
如果我們不多加小心，19世紀的陰影將籠罩21世紀。
Think also of the ecological carnage that comes with a rapidly warming planet. We all know the stark facts—the 12 warmest years on record have occurred in the last 17 years. The incidence of weather-related disasters has increased threefold since the 1960s. By 2030, almost half of the world’s population will live in regions of high water stress or shortage.
此外，全球快速變暖對生態(tài)環(huán)境造成了重大破壞。我們都知道這個殘酷的現(xiàn)實——歷史上溫度最高的12個年份都出現(xiàn)在過去17年里。20世紀60年代以來，與天氣相關(guān)的災難性事件增加到過去的三倍。到2030年，世界約一半人口將生活在供水壓力大或極度缺水的地區(qū)。
But the threats to growth do not just come from the future, they assail us from the past.
但是威脅增長的因素不光來自未來，它們從過去就困擾著我們。
What do I mean? I mean that it is taking a very long time for the global economy to climb out of the hole dug by the Great Recession. We expect growth of only 3.3 percent this year, and still under 4 percent next year.
這是什么意思呢？我是說全球經(jīng)濟要經(jīng)過很長一段時間才能擺脫“大衰退”造成的困境。我們預計今年的增長率只有3.3%，明年也不到4%。
Of even more concern: we are stuck in a painful jobs crisis. 200 million people around the world are looking for work today—if the unemployed formed their own country, it would be the fifth largest in the world. In some regions—southern Europe and North Africa—youth unemployment is now a chronic social problem, leading to widespread disenchantment and disengagement.
更令人擔憂的是，我們深陷嚴重的就業(yè)危機。今天，全世界還有2億人正在找工作。如果失業(yè)人口自成一國，那將成為世界第五大國。目前在南歐和北非等地區(qū)，年青人失業(yè)是一個長期的社會問題，許多人夢想破壞，與社會脫節(jié)。
As Dostoyevsky once put it, “deprived of meaningful work, men and women lose their reason for existence”.
正如陀思妥耶夫斯基所言，“如果不從事有意義的工作，人們就失去了存在的理由”。
All told, we risk getting stuck in a “new mediocre” of poor growth and paltry job creation. To overcome it, we need “new momentum” on the policy front.
總而言之，我們可能陷入經(jīng)濟增長疲軟、就業(yè)創(chuàng)造不足的“新平庸”狀態(tài)。對此，要在政策方面形成“新勢頭”予以克服。
On the demand side, monetary policy should certainly continue to support the recovery—and with careful attention to potential spillovers and spillbacks. Fiscal policy must be customized to country circumstances—and we must not give up the gains that have accrued in recent years. At the same time, fiscal policy must be as growth- and jobs-friendly as possible.
在需求方面，貨幣政策無疑應繼續(xù)支持復蘇，我們要密切注意潛在的溢出和溢回效應。財政政策必須根據(jù)各國具體情況而定，我們不能放棄這幾年積累的成果。同時，財政政策必須盡可能的促進增長和就業(yè)。
On the supply side, we need movement across many dimensions. Opening up cozy monopolies in service industries. Boosting infrastructure investment. Improving educational opportunities, financial inclusion, and the business environment—especially in many emerging markets and low-income countries. Using fiscal instruments—like carbon pricing—both to help make energy use more efficient and to encourage people to make green choices.
在供給方面，我們要多方面行動起來：打破服務業(yè)的壟斷；促進基礎設施投資；改善教育機會、金融服務普及性和商業(yè)環(huán)境，特別是在許多新興市場和低收入國家。采用碳定價等財政工具，既幫助提高能源使用效率，又鼓勵人們保護環(huán)境。
These are not new insights, but action in the past has often lacked. This time the challenge is for real. We must aim higher, try harder, and work better together to achieve higher growth outcomes.
這些并不是什么新的想法，只是以往通常缺乏行動。面對當下切實的挑戰(zhàn)，我們要志存高遠，奮發(fā)圖強，加強合作，實現(xiàn)更高的增長。
We also need to make the job market more inclusive. This means active labor market policies and training programs to help young people. It means more family-friendly policies like affordable child-care and flexible working arrangements to entice more women into the workforce.
我們還要使就業(yè)市場更具包容性。這意味著要采取積極的勞動力市場政策和培訓計劃幫助年青人，意味著要采取更有利于家庭的政策，如實惠的保育安排和靈活的工作安排，吸引更多婦女加入到勞動力大軍中來。
Remember, an estimated 865 million women around the world are being held back. Yet we know that enabling women to participate on an equal footing with men is an economic game-changer.
我們要記住，全世界約8.65億婦女沒有參與勞動力市場。我們都知道，使女性像男性一樣平等參與，是經(jīng)濟活動的變革性因素。
The IMF stands ready to help our members with this agenda—offering country-specific advice on the reforms needed to make growth more sustainable, job-rich, and inclusive. That’s what we are here for.
基金組織已做好準備幫助成員國實施這項議程。它將針對各國具體情況，提出必要的具體改革建議，促進更可持續(xù)、創(chuàng)造更多就業(yè)以及包容性更強的增長。
