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2. New Momentum – Policy Priorities
2、新勢頭—政策優先事項
The global economy is at an inflection point: it can muddle along with sub-par growth – a “new mediocre”; or it can aim for a better path where bold policies would accelerate growth, increase employment, and achieve a “new momentum”.
全球經濟正處于拐點：它可以一直保持低增長,也就是“新平庸”；或者走一條更好的路子，制定大刀闊斧的政策，加快增長，促進就業，形成“新勢頭”。
How can this second “m” – momentum – be generated?
那么如何才能產生第二個“m”—勢頭呢？
For one thing, we need better balance in our policy toolkit – using both the demand and supply side of the economy. Think of the famous Georgetown Hoyas basketball team – you need all players to work together to win. You need teamwork. The same is true for the global economy. Each policy instrument must play its part in order to achieve proper balance.
一方面，我們要更好地平衡政策工具包—對經濟供求雙方都要利用起來。就好比著名的喬治城大學籃球隊（Hoyas），只有所有隊員通力合作才能贏得比賽。團隊合作是必需的。發展全球經濟也是如此。每項政策工具必須發揮應有的作用才能實現恰當的平衡。
Monetary policy has provided important support to demand during this crisis. In the U.S., for example, the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing has done much to aid recovery.
在危機期間，貨幣政策為刺激需求提供了有力支撐。以美國為例，美聯儲的量化寬松政策為促進經濟復蘇做出了重要貢獻。
But monetary policy cannot suffice. Moreover, the longer easy money policies continue, the greater the risk of fuelling financial excess. This needs to be monitored and managed.
但僅有貨幣政策是不夠的。而且，寬松貨幣政策持續的時間越長，導致金融過剩的風險就越大。這就需要監測和管理。
Equally important, as I mentioned earlier, where the prospect of exit from monetary easing looms – as in the U.S. – the implications for other parts of the world need to be monitored and managed. A continued gradual approach with clear communication from the Fed is key.
還有一點也很重要。正如我剛才所提到的，如果可能退出貨幣寬松政策，比如美國就有此打算，那么必需監測和管理此舉對世界其他國家和地區的影響。美聯儲采取持續漸進且清晰溝通的方式十分關鍵。
So too is the adoption of appropriate macro-prudential policies by those countries that stand to be most affected by monetary normalization – especially emerging markets. What does “macro-prudential” mean? It means measures that can help prevent financial excesses and protect the stability of the financial system, such as minimum liquidity ratios.
受貨幣政策正常化影響最嚴重的國家，特別是新興經濟體，采取恰當的宏觀審慎政策也是重要的方面。何謂“宏觀審慎”呢？宏觀審慎就是指那些有助于防范金融過剩和保護金融系統穩定性的措施，如最低流動性比率。
So back to the Hoyas: monetary policy is playing its part. Now it needs more support from the rest of the team – other policies. There are three important and interrelated elements here – and all can help promote a higher level of growth and jobs: fiscal policies; structural reforms of labor and product markets; and public investment in infrastructure.
我們再回到Hoyas這個例子：貨幣政策正在發揮作用。現在需要其他隊員，也就是其他政策的更多支持。有三個重要且相互關聯的因素，都有助于提高經濟增長和就業水平：財政政策、勞動力和產品市場結構性改革和對基礎設施的公共投資。
Let me touch on each of these.
下面我們一一來看：
(i) First, growth-friendly and job-friendly fiscal policies.
（1）一是促進增長和就業的財政政策。
A great deal has been achieved in many countries in recent years to reduce excessive deficit and bring debt under control. These gains must not be squandered. And yet, there are still a few levers that fiscal policy can pull to boost growth and jobs:
近年來，許多國家在控制債務和赤字方面取得了長足的進展。這些進步不能白白浪費。另外，財政政策還可以利用以下手段促進增長和就業：
The pace of consolidation and composition of fiscal measures should support economic activity to the extent possible. Of course, specific timing and scope for flexibility must be attuned to country circumstances. That is why the IMF has given this issue priority in the programs that we support – from Africa to the Euro Area. A sensible pace.
財政整頓的節奏和財政措施的構成應盡可能支持經濟活動。當然，具體時機和政策彈性要根據各國實際情況靈活調整。這也是為什么基金組織在其資助的規劃中將此列為優先事項，無論非洲還是歐元區都是如此。這個節奏是合理的。
Well-targeted fiscal measures can contribute too, such as reforms that can address tax evasion, support more efficient public spending, and reduce the burden on labor – lower payroll taxes, for instance. A sensible mix.
目標明確的財政措施也有幫助，比如能夠遏制偷稅漏稅、提高公共開支效率和減少勞動力負擔（如降低工資稅）的改革。這種組合也是合理的。
The reform of energy subsidies, which we estimate at about US$2 trillion, can also generate revenue. As it stands, these subsidies mostly benefit the relatively affluent, not the poor. They also harm the environment.
能源補貼（估計約2萬億美元）改革也能產生收入。按照目前的狀況，這些補貼大多數只對相對富裕的人有益，窮人難以從中獲益，另外還危害環境。
So growth-friendly, job-friendly, environment-friendly fiscal policies can help. But they cannot substitute for policies to remove deep-seated distortions in labor and product markets.
因此促進增長、提高就業且環保的財政政策能有所幫助。但這些政策不能代替那些旨在根除勞動力和產品市場根深蒂固的扭曲現象的政策。
(ii) That brings me to the “structural reforms” that are so essential to raise productivity, competitiveness and employment.
（2）接下來我要談一談對提高生產率、競爭力和就業水平至關重要的“結構性改革”。
What should be done? First of all, the scale of the challenge should not be underestimated. Today, more than 200 million people around the world are still unemployed, of which 75 million are youth. In addition, with the exception of the top 1 percent, most people have seen their incomes stagnate or shrink over the past few years.
我們應該做些什么呢？首先不應低估挑戰的規模。如今全世界仍有2億多失業人口，其中7500萬是年青人。另外，過去幾年除了收入最高的1%的人群，大部分人的收入沒有變化或在縮水。
To lift consumption and investment, we need more robust job and wage growth. In particular, we need to make labor markets stronger. How?
為了提振消費和投資，就業和工資要有更大幅度的增長。我們尤其要強化勞動力市場。那么該如何做呢？
Through well-designed, active labor market policies and training programs that bolster the demand for workers – especially young people. There are some useful examples in countries like Australia, Germany, and Sweden; and
精心設計積極主動的勞動力市場政策和培訓規劃，刺激對勞動者特別是年輕勞動者的需求。澳大利亞、德國和瑞典的做法堪為楷模；以及
Through policies that increase labor participation, especially of women. In Japan, for example, a major effort is ongoing to expand the supply of day-care centers to encourage women to join the labor force – and as a way to offset aging pressures. Similar policies are explored in Korea.
采取提高勞動參與率特別是婦女參與勞動率的政策。比如，日本正在采取一項重要措施，建立更多日間護理中心，以鼓勵婦女加入勞動力大軍，同時減輕老齡化帶來的壓力。韓國正在探索實施類似政策。
Opening up of product and service markets can also reinforce the gains from labor market reforms – one example being the many professions, from lawyers to taxi drivers, which are closed to competition in many countries.
開放產品和服務市場也能強化勞動力市場改革帶來的收益。比如，許多國家的不少行業（從律師到出租車司機）都沒有開放的競爭。
Even then, these policies would only go so far unless we improve the flow of credit to the economy. We need insolvency regimes that can help banks and the private sector effectively deal with their debt burdens – to free up their balance sheets so credit can flow back and grease the wheels of the economy.
即便如此，除非改善經濟體的信貸流動，否則這些政策也只能取得目前的效果。我們要建立能幫助銀行和私營部門有效處理債務負擔的破產制度，解除資產負債表限制，實現信貸回流，形成經濟發展的動力。
Again, no one size fits all here. Policies must be designed according to country circumstances. But whatever the country-specific measures might be, all nations need to place a much higher premium on structural reform – and on investment.
對此也沒有“一刀切”的辦法。各國應根據各自的具體情況制定政策。但無論采取怎樣的具體措施，各國都需要更加重視結構性改革以及投資。
(iii) Public investment in infrastructure is especially important. Why?
（3）針對基礎設施的公共投資尤為重要。原因為何？
The crisis has inflicted a heavy toll on both growth and investment, which remain well below their long-term trends. As of last year, we have estimated that for the G-20 countries, GDP is 8 percent lower than it could otherwise have been. The shortfall in investment is even higher – nearly 20 percent below trend.
危機嚴重阻礙了經濟增長和投資，其當前水平均遠低于長期趨勢。截至去年，我們估計20國集團的GDP比未發生危機的情形下低8%。投資缺口甚至更大，比趨勢水平低近20%。
In advanced economies, capital stocks – airports, electricity, internet grids – were depleted as public investment was steadily scaled back by a quarter – from about 4 percent of GDP in the 1980s to 3 percent today. Is it any surprise that aging infrastructure is now such a major concern?
先進經濟體的公共投資（比如對機場、電網、互聯網等資本存量的投資）逐漸相應縮減了四分之一，占GDP比重從20世紀80年代的約4%下降到如今的3%。基礎設施老化已經成為當前人們擔憂的主要問題之一，這奇怪嗎？
Right here in Washington DC, the American Society of Civil Engineers estimates that 99 percent of the major roads are in poor condition. Globally, some estimates place spending on infrastructure at US$6 trillion over the next 15 years. This is an obvious imperative in many countries, where bottlenecks and obstacles to transportation and energy supply abound and hamper development.
就在華盛頓特區，美國土木工程師協會估計有99%的主干道路年久失修。據估測，未來15年全球基礎設施開支將達6萬億美元。這對許多面臨運輸和能源供應瓶頸從而阻礙經濟發展的國家來說顯然迫在眉睫。
Again, the scope for investment differs across countries – depending on infrastructure gaps and fiscal space. And for all countries, ensuring efficient infrastructure spending is crucial. There is no question, however, that it can be a powerful impetus for growth and jobs.
投資范圍各國均不相同，取決于基礎設施缺口和財政空間。確保高效的基礎設施開支對所有國家來說都是至關重要的。但毫無疑問的是，這將成為經濟增長和就業的強大動力。
One more point: recent estimates – by the Global Commission on the Economy and Climate – indicate that integrating lower emission standards into infrastructure investment would cost only a tiny fraction (about 4.5 percent) of total projected spending. So efficient investment – especially at a time of historically low interest rates – can be good for growth, good for jobs, and good for the environment.
還有一點，根據全球經濟和氣候委員會最近的估測，將低排放標準納入基礎設施投資所產生的費用只占預計總開支的很小一部分（約4.5%）。因此高效投資既有利于增長也能刺激就業、保護環境，在利率處于歷史低位的時候尤其如此。
Concluding remarks on the new multilateralism and role of the Fund
結束語：新多邊主義和基金組織的作用
We have talked about “mediocre” growth and the policy “momentum” needed to overcome it. I would like to conclude with my third “M” – multilateralism.
我們剛剛探討了“平庸”增長和克服平庸增長的政策“動力”，最后我想講講第三個“m”—多邊主義。
We have seen some concrete examples of global economic cooperation in action during this crisis.
在危機期間采取的行動中，我們已經見到了不少全球經濟合作的具體事例。
Perhaps most prominent has been the G20 nations coming together – including to provide additional resources to the IMF – to bolster confidence and safeguard the global financial system. Just a few weeks ago, the G20 announced further progress in developing strategies to lift medium-term growth by a collective 2 percent of GDP by 2018 – holding the promise of more growth and jobs.
或許最引人矚目的就是20國集團的合作。它們采取了向基金組織提供更多資源等措施，以提振信心，并保護全球金融系統安全。就在幾周前，20國集團宣布，在制定戰略實現2018年整體GDP增長2%的中期目標方面取得了新進展，實現了促進增長和就業的承諾。
The IMF, of course, has been a forum for cooperation throughout its 70-year history. This has continued during this crisis.
基金組織在其70年的歷史中發揮了合作平臺的作用，在危機期間也繼續發揮著相同的作用。
We have revamped our lending toolkit, including by making our instruments more flexible in providing liquidity on a precautionary basis and easier to access in emergencies. And we introduced zero-interest loans for our low-income members. We have also significantly increased our financial assistance across the globe – close to US$700 billion in commitments over the last 6 years.
我們改良了貸款工具，使它們在預防基礎上提供流動性時更加靈活，獲得緊急貸款也更加容易。我們為低收入成員國提供零利息貸款，大大增加了全球金融援助，過去6年的貸款承諾接近7000億美元。
We have done some new analysis and thinking on a range of critical issues: on capital flow management and capital controls; and on the growing interconnectedness of the global economy and the spillover effects of one country’s policies on others. We have pushed the envelope on the negative effects of excessive inequality on growth; the fiscal implications of climate change; and – something very close to my own heart – the role of women in the work force and their powerful potential to boost growth and incomes.
我們重新分析、思考了一系列關鍵問題：資本流動管理和資本控制、全球經濟日益顯著的互聯性，一國政策對其他國家的溢出效應。我們在以下方面取得了空前的成績：應對經濟增長過度不均的負面影響、氣候變化的財政影響，以及我本人非常重視的婦女在勞動力大軍中的作用和她們促進增長、提高收入的巨大潛力。
It might surprise you to learn that the largest service that the IMF now provides is capacity building and technical assistance. Almost 90 percent of our 188 members have benefited– from Mauritius to Myanmar to Mexico. We have also initiated a massive open online course – a “MOOC” – with almost 2000 graduates from all over the world, in the last year.
基金組織目前提供的最主要服務是能力建設和技術援助，這可能令諸位大吃一驚。從毛里求斯到緬甸再到墨西哥，188個成員國中約有90%從中受益。我們已經啟動大規模的網絡公開課（MOOC），去年全球已有約2000名畢業生。
To be effective in the 21st century, of course, we need to be adequately resourced and adequately reflect the dynamic nature of our global membership. To that end, the vast majority of our members have approved an IMF governance measure: the 2010 Quota reform. We now await approval by our largest shareholder–the United States–which we hope will happen soon.
當然，為了在21世紀取得成果，我們要有足夠的資源，充分反映全球成員國的動態特征。為此，絕大部分成員國批準了基金組織的治理改革措施：2010年份額改革。現在正在等待基金組織最大的股東——美國的批準，我們希望美國能盡早批準。
Seventy years on, we continue to adapt to fulfill our raison d’être – to safeguard stability by helping countries through economic fallouts, and forging cooperative solutions to global problems. For you and for generations to come.
下一個70年，我們不斷調整，踐行我們最重要的使命--幫助各國克服負面經濟影響以維持穩定，針對全球性問題提出合作式解決方案。這樣做的目的是為了諸位和更長遠的將來。
As I like to say sometimes: “This is not your father’s IMF”. Actually, it is yours!
正如我常說的：“基金組織不屬于你們的父輩。”事實上，它是屬于你們！
Together, as we look forward to the future, perhaps those wonderful Georgetown colors can help guide us: there are some “grey” clouds, but – aiming higher, trying harder, doing it together – we can gain new momentum and bring the “blue” skies.
展望未來，我們或許能從喬治城的奇妙色彩中得到啟示：“灰”云雖在，但只要我們志存高遠、奮發圖強、齊心協力，就能形成新的發展勢頭，重見湛湛“藍”天。
Thank you.
謝謝。
