評論
打印
Dear President DeGioa, thank you for the gracious introduction!
尊敬的DeGioa校長，感謝您的親切介紹！
Dean Reardon-Anderson, students and faculty: Thank you for welcoming me here today!
Reardon-Anderson主任，各位師生：感謝對我今天來訪的歡迎。
I am honored to be hosted by one of the world’s finest schools of foreign service. Your mission statement is “to contribute to global peace, prosperity and human wellbeing by educating future generations of world leaders.”
喬治城大學外交學院是世界一流的外交學院之一，將“通過培養未來的世界領袖為世界和平、繁榮和人類福祉做出貢獻”作為自己的使命，我很榮幸能受邀來訪此地。
The founders of your school had an ambitious and sustainable vision back in 1789; but they did not know that 70 years ago the IMF would be founded to pursue the same objectives – albeit by different means. I could not be at a better place than speaking here today.
1789年，貴學院的創始人設立了胸懷遠大且可持續的愿景；但他們不知道70年前，基金組織的成立也是為了追求同樣的目標，盡管實現目標的途徑不同。今天能在此地演講再也適合不過。
As I look at the grey and blue colors of Georgetown that adorn this beautiful campus, I am reminded of the themes that I will touch upon today: some “grey” clouds hovering over the global economy; and the “blue” skies of growth and prosperity to which we both aspire.
當注視喬治城用于裝點這個美麗校園的灰色與藍色時，我不禁想起今天的演講主題：全球經濟籠罩著一些“灰”云；以及我們同時期盼的象征著增長與繁榮的“藍”天。
This will be the topic for the Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors of our 188 member countries as they arrive in Washington next week for the Annual Meetings of the IMF and World Bank. They will also be discussing, of course, the role of the IMF.
下周，我們188個成員國的財長與央行行長將抵達華盛頓參加基金組織和世界銀行年會，屆時這將是他們探討的議題。當然，他們還會討論基金組織的作用。
Let me say a few words about the IMF and its task.
我先簡要介紹下基金組織及其職責。
Founded in the aftermath of World War II, the Fund has helped the world to fight many economic crises – from Europe, to Asia, to Latin America, to the former Soviet Union, and back to Europe. We have helped emerging markets and the world’s poorest nations to integrate into the global economy. Across our entire membership, we have helped to build economic and financial capacity.
基金組織成立于第二次世界大戰之后，至今已幫助世界應對了多次經濟危機，從歐洲到亞洲到拉美再到前蘇聯，又再次回到歐洲。我們幫助了新興市場和世界最貧困的國家融入全球經濟。我們也幫助所有成員國培育了應對經濟和金融問題的能力。
In recent years, we have provided assistance during the global financial crisis – the worst facing the world since the Great Depression. In recent months, we have provided support to Ukraine, nations in the Middle East, and the Ebola-stricken countries of West Africa.
近年來，我們在全球金融危機期間提供了援助，這是自“大蕭條”以來世界面臨的最嚴重的危機。近幾個月，我們為烏克蘭、中東國家以及受埃博拉病毒影響的西非國家提供了支持。
Our main job now is to help the global economy shift gears and overcome what has been so far a disappointing recovery: one that is brittle, uneven, and beset by risks.
目前我們的主要工作是幫助全球經濟切換檔位，從迄今為止令人失望的經濟復蘇中走出來，因為當前的復蘇脆弱、不均衡并被風險所困。
This will be foremost on policymakers’ minds next week. Indeed, in many ways, the global economy is at an inflection point.
這將是下周政策制定者心中最重要的任務。的確，從許多方面看，全球經濟正處于拐點。
Yes, there is a recovery but as we all know – and can all feel it – the level of growth and jobs is simply not good enough. The world needs to aim higher and try harder, to do it together and be country-specific.
是的，經濟是在復蘇，但正如我們所知，并且能感覺到，目前的增長和就業水平根本不夠好。全世界需要志存高遠、奮發圖強、齊心協力、兼顧國情。
What does that mean? It means a mix of bolder policies to inject a “new momentum” that can overcome this “new mediocre” that clouds the future. That is what I want to discuss with you today.
這意味著什么？意味著采取更大膽的政策組合以注入可以克服 “新平庸”的“新勢頭”， 而“新平庸”正像烏云一樣籠罩著未來。這是今天我想和大家探討的內容。
As one of the most illustrious faculty members of this School and former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright once said: “The best speech will do it all – make us laugh, think, cry, and cheer – preferably in that order!” Today I would mainly like to make you think – and hopefully not make you cry too much!
正如本學院最杰出的教職工之一、前國務卿Madeleine Albright 曾經說過：“最好的演講全都可以做到，可以讓我們笑、思考、哭和歡呼，最好是這個順序！”今天，我主要想讓大家思考，但愿不會讓大家掉太多眼淚！
I will focus on two topics:
我將重點談到兩個話題：
(i) First, the state of the global economy – and the risk that the world could get stuck for some time with a “mediocre” level of growth; and
（1）一是全球經濟狀況，以及世界一段時間受困于“平庸”的經濟增長水平的風險；
(ii) Second, how all policymakers can generate the policy “momentum” needed to power up global activity, and avoid the new mediocre.
（2）二是所有政策制定者如何創造加快全球經濟增長所需的政策“勢頭”，并避免出現新的平庸。
I will conclude with what I see as priorities for a new “multilateralism” – how to galvanize global cooperation and the role of the IMF.
最后，我將會談談我眼中新“多邊主義”的優先點，即如何激勵全球合作并發揮基金組織的作用。
So three M’s”: mediocre growth, momentum on policies, and multilateralism for action.
因此有三個M：平庸的增長，政策勢頭和行動的多邊性（mediocre growth, momentum on policies, and multilateralism for action）。
1. State of the Global Economy – A New Mediocre?
1、全球經濟狀況——新平庸？
First, a quick health check on the global economy. We will be releasing our updated forecasts next week, so today I will touch only upon the broad trends.
首先，給全球經濟做一個快速體檢。下周，我們將發布最新預測數據，所以今天我僅簡要談談大體趨勢。
Overall, the global economy is weaker than we had envisaged even six months ago. Only a modest pickup is foreseen for 2015, as the outlook for potential growth has been pared down.
總體而言，全球經濟甚至比我們六個月前的預想還要疲軟。由于潛在增長前景展望調低，預計2015年的經濟增長僅會小幅改善。
Prospects differ, of course, across countries and regions. In fact, this is one of the most striking characteristics of the current economic conjuncture: it is very country-specific.
當然，不同國家和地區之間的前景存在差異。事實上，這是當前經濟緊要關頭最引人注目的特征之一，即國別差異非常明顯。
Among advanced economies, the rebound is expected to be strongest in the United States and the United Kingdom; modest in Japan; and weakest in the Euro Area, within which there are disparities.
在先進經濟體中，預計美國和英國的經濟反彈力度最強；日本適中；歐元區最弱，但其成員國之間存在差異。
Emerging market and developing economies have been doing much of the heavy lifting during this crisis – accounting for more than 80 percent of world growth since 2008. Led by Asia, and China in particular, we expect that they will continue to help drive global activity. For them too, however, it is likely to be at a slower pace than before.
危機期間，全球經濟增長主要由新興市場和發展中經濟體拉動。自2008年以來，它們在全球經濟增長中的比重超過80%。在亞洲，特別是中國的帶領下，我們預計這些經濟體將繼續推動全球經濟增長。然而，它們的經濟增速也很可能慢于之前。
For the low-income developing countries, including Sub-Saharan Africa, economic prospects are rising – with growth projected broadly to accelerate beyond the 6 percent recorded last year. But as debt builds up in some countries, they need to be watching as well.
包括撒哈拉以南非洲在內的低收入發展中國家的經濟前景正在改善，預計經濟增長普遍會超過去年6%的水平。但隨著一些國家債務的積累，它們也需保持警惕。
Finally, in the Middle East, the outlook is clouded by difficult economic transitions and by intense social and political strife.
最后，艱難的經濟轉型和緊張的社會與政治沖突籠罩著中東經濟增長前景。
The bottom line? Six years after the financial crisis began, we see continued weakness in the global economy. Countries are still dealing with the legacies of the crisis, including high debt burdens and unemployment. In addition, there are some serious clouds on the horizon:
底線？金融危機爆發六年后，我們發現全球經濟中仍存在脆弱性。各國仍在應對危機的遺留問題，包括較大的債務負擔和失業問題。此外，我們視野中有一些危險的烏云：
Low growth for a long time is one. What do I mean? If people expect growth potential to be lower tomorrow, they will cut back on investment and consumption today. This dynamic could seriously impede the recovery, especially in advanced economies that are also grappling with high unemployment and low inflation. This is the case for the Euro Area.
長期低增長是其一。這是什么意思呢？如果人們預計明天的增長潛力會下降，他們便會減少今天的投資與消費。這種動態關系會嚴重阻礙經濟復蘇，特別是那些還在努力應付高失業和低通脹問題的先進經濟體。歐元區便是如此。
There is also a cloud hovering around asynchronous monetary policy normalization in advanced economies and its potential spillovers to other countries around the world – and back – both through their impact on interest rates and exchange rate variations.
還有一片烏云籠罩著先進經濟體不同步的貨幣政策正常化及其對世界其他國家產生的潛在溢出影響和溢回影響，均通過對利率和匯率變動產生影響。
As well as these “economic” clouds, there are financial ones. There is concern that financial sector excesses may be building up, especially in advanced economies. Asset valuations are at an all time high; spreads and volatility are at an all time low.
除了這些“經濟”烏云之外，還有金融烏云。有人擔憂金融部門的過剩問題可能正在積累，尤其是先進經濟體。資產估值正處于歷史高點；而利差和波動性正處于歷史低點。
A further worry is the migration of new market and liquidity risks to the “shadows” of the financial world. This is part of the less-regulated, nonbank sector, which is growing rapidly in some countries. In the United States, for example, shadow banking is now considerably larger than the traditional banking system; in Europe, it is roughly half the size; and in China, at 25-35 percent, it is the fifth largest shadow banking sector in the world.
更大的擔憂是，新市場和流動性風險可能轉移至金融世界的“影子”中，即那些未受嚴格監管的非銀行部門的一部分，它在有些國家發展迅猛。例如，美國的影子銀行目前顯著大于傳統銀行體系；歐洲影子銀行的規模約為傳統銀行的一半；中國影子銀行的規模約相當于傳統銀行的25-35%，為全球第五大影子銀行部門。
Of course, nonbank activities can complement the banking sector in financing the economy in important ways. Yet, the opaqueness of these activities warrants heightened vigilance. They also warrant increased efforts to complete the agenda of financial sector reform, including resolving the too-important-to-fail problem, setting an appropriate perimeter for the monitoring of shadow banks, and making the derivatives markets safer and more transparent.
當然，非銀行部門的活動可以在為經濟提供融資過程中對銀行部門形成重要補充。然而，這些活動的不透明性值得我們提高警惕，還值得我們加倍努力完成金融部門改革議程，包括解決太重要而不能倒的問題，為監測影子銀行確定適當范圍，以及提高衍生品市場的安全性和透明度。
As well as economic and financial “clouds”, there are geopolitical risks. They include:
除了經濟和金融“烏云”之外，還有地緣政治風險，包括：
A possible further escalation of the situation in Ukraine, which could provoke disruptions in commodity prices, financial markets and trade;
烏克蘭局勢可能進一步升級，進而引發商品價格、金融市場與貿易動蕩；
Political developments in the Middle East and in some parts of Asia;
中東和亞洲一些地區的政治發展形勢；
And an expansion of the Ebola outbreak in Africa, which could pose a significant risk to the region and indeed the world, if not urgently and appropriately addressed.
以及非洲埃博拉病毒影響范圍擴大，如不能得到緊急妥善處理，將給該地區甚至整個世界帶來重大風險。
All of these risks, of course, also involve immense human suffering and we hope that they do not develop. But we would be remiss simply to ignore them.
當然，所有這些風險還包括給人類帶來的巨大痛苦，我們希望它們不會出現。但如果簡單地忽略這些風險，那就是我們的疏忽。
