So we propose:
1. Set a cleardirection in Copenhagen; get the action under way. Do not try to put a spuriousprecision on each and every aspect. Set a realistic target and get the changestarted. Make Copenhagen the beginning but not the end of a process that willrequire constant adjustment over the years.
2. Carry onthrough to next year's G8 the informal process whereby G8 and the developingworld major economies continue to try to resolve core questions. Together G8+5and Major Economies’ Meeting represent three quarters of the global emissions.A steer from them is an essential precondition of this deal. And this doesn’tsupplant the UN process. It supports it.
3. As wediscovered, or I’ve discovered, there are a plethora of really tricky questionsthat need answering before a serious negotiation can work. We detail these inthe report. It is surely wise to commission work and research on them, makingfull use of the enormous range of non-governmental bodies, institutes andexperts, many of whom already contribute to the UN's work.
So the G8 shouldagree a work plan through to next year, to get this work done. Just give you somesmall examples-large issues but small examples. How do we raise the money thatis going to be necessary for technology, for deforestations, for helpingdeveloping countries? Is there a place for auctioning credits? If so, how wouldit work? Is the Clean Development Mechanism the right mechanism? Can it bereformed? How do carbon markets link up? Should the developing world haveaccess to them? How do we transfer technology? Do we need a new InterllcetualProperty Rright regime?
In this, Phase 1,we have identified the 10 building blocks of a global deal. The global target,an interim target, developed world commitments and carbon markets, developingworld contributions, sectoral action, financing, technology, forests,adaptation and institutions and mechanisms of action.
And what we havedone under each head is trying to isolate the key elements that will need agreementand the further work to clarify each of them. We also identify significantfacts whose significance in a pratical way is nonetheless often lost. Forexample, energy efficiency would provide around one quarter of the gainsnecessary and, incidentally, save money. It requires special focus.
The vast majorityof new power stations in China and India will be coal-fired; not “may be” willbe coal-fired. So developing carbon capture and storage technology is notoptional, it is literally of the essence. Without at least some countriesengaging in a substantial renaissance of nuclear power, it is hard to see howany global deal is going to work.
For developingcountries to grow sustainably they will need funds and technology, otherwise theywill not be able to peak and then reduce emissions within the necessarytimescale. Deforestation amounts to around 15-20 percent of the entireemissions problem. Certain key sectors like cement, steel and of course powermost of all, account for a huge percentage-almost half of all emissions.
Airline andshipping emissions, though only 5 percent today, are a fast growing. Doneright, the costs of abatement will be manageable and probably less thanpredicted, and there are potentially real opportunities for the new low-carboneconomy that will develop. The point is: all of these intensively praticalquestions require to be answered if we are to put a global deal together.
And in the endthis is the question: What is it reasonable to ask countries to do on theirown? And then, what more could be done, if the right partnership was in placefor a global deal? In other words, how do we, by use of global mechanisms in aglobal agreement, accelerate the process of change in individual countries?
Because there maybe a gap between what it is reasonable to do and what is necessary for the climateto survive. And the global deal is about eliminating that gap.
The aim of Phase 2of the report will be to try to show how the building blocks can be arranged ina cohesive global deal. In particular we will try to bridge the chasm earlierdescribed between the entirely understandable demands for radical action tosave the environment and the equally understandable desire for countries toenjoy economic growth and prosperity in a world in which the majority, atpresent are still poor.
Finally, some goodnews. It is clear the deal can be done. Indeed it is clear that long term thereare going to be benefits in doing it. But short-term we need to get theelements in place and we need to get them in place fast. And that is what thisreport is designed to help. Thank you very much.