評論
打印
尊敬的英國皇家工程學院首席執行官Philip Greenish教授，
尊敬的利茲大學副校長Richard Williams教授，
尊敬的商業、創新和技能部及交通部首席科學顧問Brian Collins教授，
尊敬的中國科學院副院長李靜海先生，
各位專家學者，
女士們、先生們：
Professor Brian Collins,
Professor Philip Greenish,
Professor Richard Williams,
Vice President Li Jinghai,
Ladies and Gentlemen,
我很高興出席由中國科學院與英國皇家工程院共同舉辦的“未來能源存儲技術與政策”研討會。我謹對兩院舉辦此次研討會表示熱烈祝賀，并對李靜海副院長率團出席表示熱烈歡迎。
It is my great pleasure to join you today. Let me congratulate the Chinese Academy of Sciences and the Royal Academy of Engineering for holding this joint workshop on the Future of Energy Storage Technology and Policy. I also wish to extend my warm welcome to Vice President Li Jinghai and his delegation.
當前，世界經濟正在逐步恢復增長。人們在反思國際金融危機根源的同時，更著眼于未來的發展。因此，“未來能源存儲技術與政策”研討會可謂恰逢其時。就在上周，英國石油公司（BP）發表了《2030年能源展望》，報告認為未來20年，世界能源消費將增加40%，增量的93%將來自非經合組織成員，也就是包括中國、印度、俄羅斯和巴西在內的新興經濟體。新興經濟體占世界能源消費的比重將從目前的1/2增加到2/3。與此同時，能源強度將大大降低，這主要得益于新興經濟體正在迅速采取提高能效的措施。報告亦認為,世界能源將日益多元化，非化石能源將首次成為最大增長源，可再生能源對世界能源增長的貢獻率將從目前的5%增加到2030年的18%。
This workshop comes at an interesting time. The global economy is slowly recovering. Countries are looking for new areas of growth, while analyzing the causes of the financial crisis. According to the Energy Outlook 2030 report by the BP last week, global energy consumption will grow by 40% by 2030. 93% of that growth will come from non-OECD economies, such as the BRIC and other emerging economies. Their share of global energy consumption is likely to reach two-thirds by 2030 from about half today. At the same time, energy intensity is set to fall globally, thanks in large part to energy efficiency gains in emerging economies. The report also projects greater diversity of energy sources. Non-fossil fuels will lead the growth in consumption for the first time, and the contribution to energy growth of renewables is seen to increase from 5% to 18%.
我認為，這份報告雖是一家之言，但大致描繪了世界未來能源發展的趨勢，這可以說也是此次研討會的一個大背景。那么，中國未來能源發展趨勢是什么樣呢？
This report, though from one company, provides a good background of the major trends in global energy development. What about China’s energy future?
中國是一個發展中國家，正處于實現工業化和推進現代化的歷史時期。客觀地講，隨著經濟規模進一步擴大，工業化、城鎮化進程加快，居民消費結構升級，中國能源需求會持續增加。但是，綠色、低碳的時代潮流浩浩蕩蕩，我們不會也不可能走工業化國家發展的老路，中國能源發展必須有新思路和新突破。不久前，中國制定了“十二五”規劃，能源發展基本思路就是要加快轉變能源發展方式，合理控制能源消費總量，大力調整能源結構，推動能源生產和利用方式的變革。煤炭、石油等化石能源短期內仍將是中國能源供應的主體，但非化石能源占一次能源消費比重五年后將從現在的約8%上升到11.4%，到2020年達到15%左右。為此，中國未來將大力開發水電、核電、風電、太陽能、生物質能和地熱能。我們將努力實現到2020年單位GDP碳強度降低40-45%的目標，這是中國向國際社會做出的莊重承諾。
China is a developing country in the process of industrialisation and modernisation. Its demand for energy will rise further as industrialisation and urbanisation move ahead, and as people consume more along with greater prosperity. But we can no longer afford to follow traditional ways of Western industrialization. Our future lies in green and low-carbon development. The recently drafted “12th Five-Year Plan” laid out the basic principles for energy development in China. These include: shifting the energy development model, keeping energy consumption under control, improving the energy mix and reforming patterns of energy production and use. Fossil fuels will remain the main sources of China’s energy supply in the short run, but the share of non-fossil fuels in energy consumption will increase from 8% to 11.4% in the next 5 years, and to 15% by 2020. To make this possible, China will vigorously develop hydro, nuclear, wind, solar, biomass and geothermal power. We have every intention of fulfilling our pledge to cut carbon intensity by 40-45% by 2020.
