So why do so few managers get things right the second or third time?
那么為什么只有少數管理者能在第二次或第三次嘗試中成功呢?
Let's consider one reason for failure - placing too much trust in the people who are running the successful operation, the 'experts' shall we say.
讓我們考慮一個失敗的原因,對以往經營成功案例的人太過信任,也就是我們所稱的“專家”。
Managers who want to apply existing knowledge typically start off by going to an expert,
管理者想從專家身上運用已有的知識并征求他們的意見,
such as the person who designed and is running a successful department store - and picking their brains.
正是這些人設計并運營了一家成功的商店。
Now,this approach can be used if you want to gain a rough understanding of a particular system, or understand smaller,isolated problems.
這種方法可以用在當你想要了解某一特殊體系的概況或了解單獨的小問題時。
The trouble is, even the expert doesn't fully grasp the whole thing because when it comes to complex systems,
問題是,因為一涉及這個復雜的系統,甚至專家都無法完全掌控整個局面,
the individual components of the process are interwoven with one another.
而且這個程序中的單個成份又與其他成份交織在一起。
The expert never has complete access to the necessary information.
專家從來都無法獲得需要的信息。
And the situation's complicated even further by the fact that experts are usually not aware of their ownignorance.
而且專家對自己的無知還不自知,這使情況更加復雜。
The ignorance can take various forms.
這種無知可以表現為多種形式。
For instance, a lot of details of the system are invisible to managers.
例如,管理者看不到系統里的許多細節。
Some may be difficult to describe - learned on the job and well known by workers perhaps, but impossibleto describe in a way that's helpful.
也許有些細節在工作中知道卻很難描述,并且工人們都清楚,但是他們不能用一種有效的方式表達出來。
And there are some things that people know or do that they're not even aware of.
還有一些甚至是人們在無意識的狀況下知道或做的事情。