評論
打印
What do we know about the future now, I asked, that we didn't know before? "We now know that order grows out of chaos," he answered immediately. "You cannot have significant change, especially on the scale of Russia or China, without conflict. Not conflicts between East and West, or North and South, but ‘wave’ conflicts between industrially dominant countries and predominantly agrarian countries, or conflicts within countries making a transition from one to the other."
現在，人們對以前并不知道的未來又了解多少呢？我問他。他隨即答道：“人們都知道，秩序產生于混亂。尤其是在俄羅斯或中國這樣的大國，沒有沖突就不可能產生巨變。這些既不是東方和西方之間的沖突，也不是南北之間的沖突，而是以工業為主和以農業為主的國家之間的‘浪潮’沖突，或轉型時期國家內部的沖突。”
Waves, he explained, are major changes in civilization. The first wave came with the development of agriculture, the second with industry. Today we are in the midst of the third, which is based on information. In 1956 something new began to happen, which amounts to the emergence of a new civilization. Toffler said. "It was in that year that U.S. service and knowledge workers outnumbered blue-collar factory workers. In 1957 Sputnik went up. Then jet aviation became commercial, television became universal, and computers began to be widely used. And with all these changes came changes in culture."
他解釋說，浪潮是文明的重大變革。農業發展帶來了第一次浪潮？工業革命帶來第二次浪潮。如今我們正處在依托于信息的第三次浪潮之中。新文明開始于1956年出現的變化。托夫勒說：“就在那一年，美國服務業和信息業從業人數超過了藍領工人。1957年，蘇聯發射人造地球衛星。隨后是噴氣飛機轉向商用、電視普及、計筧機開始廣泛應用，文化變遷隨之出現。”
"What's happening now is the trisection of world power," he continued. "Agrarian nations on the bottom, smokestack countries in between, and knowledge-based economies on top." There are a number of countries—Brazil, for example—where all three civilizations coexist and collide.
他繼續闡釋：“世界權力三級分化正在出現。農業國處于底層，工業國位于中間，以知識經濟為主導的國家在頂層。”在有些國家，例如巴西，三種文明形態相互并存與碰撞。
