評論
打印
So we have this window of time in which we can try to pin down the chances of it striking Earth.[qh]
我們有一個時間窗口，可以嘗試確定它撞擊地球的可能性。[qh]
If we don't pin it down, there's really not much we can do until 2028 rolls around.[qh]
如果我們不能確定，那么在2028年到來之前，我們能做的事情真的不多。[qh]
And if 2028 rolls around and this thing comes barreling by the Earth and we look at it and, and we can get a better gauge of its orbit then and we see that it still has the significant chance of striking Earth, that doesn't give us much time at all.[qh]
如果2028年到來，這個東西飛速駛過地球，我們觀察它，然后可以更好地測量它的軌道，發現它仍然有很大的可能性撞擊地球，那么我們根本沒有多少時間。[qh]
Twenty thirty-two is right around the corner from there. Right. So we're left with very few options if we find that it's actually on a collision course.[qh]
2032年即將到來。是的。如果我們發現它確實在碰撞的路線上，我們幾乎沒有選擇。[qh]
So there is some discussion now that we might have to almost preemptively act and plan and just have our ducks in a row so that we can get something going very quickly if we need to, if we can't pin this thing down in the next couple months.[qh]
現在有人討論說，如果我們不能在未來幾個月內確定它，我們可能必須幾乎先發制人地采取行動和計劃，把事情安排好，以便在需要的時候可以很快開始行動。[qh]
What would that kind of prep look like? Well, that's a really good question. Officially, there is a body called the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group; they're associated with the UN.[qh]
那種準備會是什么樣子？這是一個非常好的問題。官方說法是，有一個機構叫做空間任務咨詢組，他們與聯合國有聯系。[qh]
And as luck would have it, they met in early February. So this was already on the books, and they happened to meet, and of course, top of the agenda was this asteroid, 2024 YR4.[qh]
碰巧的是，他們在二月初舉行了會議。所以這已經是計劃好的了，他們碰巧開會了，當然，議程的首要任務就是這顆小行星——2024 YR4。[qh]
They are supposed to coordinate international responses to any asteroid that is greater than 50 meters that bears a greater than 1 percent chance of striking Earth within the next 50 years.[qh]
他們應該協調國際社會對任何直徑超過50米、在未來50年內撞擊地球的概率超過1%的小行星的響應。[qh]
And of course, this asteroid still exceeds that threshold right now. But because it's so marginal, they decided they're gonna just watch and wait and reevaluate in late April or early May and see where things stand then.[qh]
當然，這顆小行星現在仍然超過了這個門檻。但由于可能性很小，他們決定只是觀察等待，并在4月底或5月初重新評估，看看屆時情況如何。[qh]
But the idea is that they would help coordinate the response. But what, what would that response be?[qh]
但他們的想法是，他們會幫助協調響應。但那會是什么，那會是什么呢？[qh]
There's really only two options. You can't do anything that ju st really, really, really gently nudges her out of the way—you have to be a little more violent.[qh]
實際上只有兩個選擇。你不能做任何只是輕輕地把她推開的事情——你必須更猛烈一點。[qh]
You can't do something like paint one side of the asteroid white and cause its reflectivity to change, which nudges the orbit.[qh]
你不能把小行星的一側漆成白色，然后改變其反射率，從而推動其軌道。[qh]
You can't park a spacecraft around it to just orbit around it and use a gravitational-tractor effect, is what it's called, to gently nudge it out of the way over time. That takes at least 10 years.[qh]
你不能將航天器停在它周圍，只是繞著它運行，然后利用所謂的引力牽引效應，隨著時間的推移輕輕地將它推開。這至少需要10年。[qh]
Instead, you have to hit it. You can either hit it with a kinetic impactor, like NASA did with the DART mission back in 2022 with a different asteroid, and change its orbit. Or you have to nuke it.[qh]
相反，你必須撞擊它。你可以用動能撞擊器撞擊它，就像NASA在2022年對另一顆小行星的DART任務所做的那樣，然后改變它的軌道?；蛘吣惚仨氂煤宋淦鞔輾?span style="display:none">xe+Ab5Czt(o
。[qh]And for an object of this size we're probably talking about something like a one-megaton hydrogen bomb being blown up right next to it,[qh]
對于這種大小的物體，我們可能談論的是一枚百萬噸級的氫彈在它旁邊爆炸，[qh]
and that would essentially vaporize it or maybe create a rocket effect from vaporizing so much of its surface that it pushes it into a different orbit.[qh]
這基本上會蒸發它，或者可能產生火箭效應，因為它蒸發了太多的表面，以至于將它推入不同的軌道。[qh]
Obviously, there would be a lot of moving parts to a plan like that, so it makes sense that they would wanna start getting their ducks in a row soon.[qh]
顯然，這樣的計劃會涉及很多可變因素，因此他們想要盡快做好準備也是合情合理的。[qh]
In the unlikely event that this asteroid did impact Earth, what are the sort of best- and worst-case scenarios?[qh]
如果這顆小行星真的撞擊了地球，那么最好的和最壞的情況是什么？[qh]
So there's preliminary evidence—I, I don't know how definitive it is—that this rock is, again, between about 40 and 100 meters [about 131 to 328 feet] in size.[qh]
有初步證據（我不知道有多確定）表明，這塊巖石的大小約為40到100米[約131到328英尺]。[qh]
What's it made out of? That makes a big difference. Is it stony, or is it metallic? Is it a big hunk of iron, or is it mostly crumbly carbonaceous stuff? It seems like it's stony.[qh]
它是由什么構成的？這有很大的不同。它是石質的，還是金屬的？它是一大塊鐵，還是主要是易碎的碳質凝灰巖？它看起來像是石質的。[qh]
It doesn't seem like it's metallic. And that changes how it affects the impact process and what it does.[qh]
它看起來不像是金屬的。這改變了它對撞擊過程的影響方式和作用。[qh]
If it was, if it was metallic, it would probably manage to pierce through our atmosphere and strike the surface—bad in all kinds of ways.[qh]
如果它是金屬的，它可能會穿透我們的大氣層并撞擊地球——在各個方面都是糟糕的。[qh]
Assuming it's stony, it will probably break up in the upper atmosphere. That's still not great.[qh]
假設它是石質的，它很可能會在高層大氣中碎裂。這仍然不是很好。[qh]
That, that's basically like an airburst happening of probably about 10 meg—megatons or so. If this thing's on the order of 100 meters in size.[qh]
這基本上就像是一次大約10兆噸的空爆。如果這個東西的大小在100米左右。[qh]
That's about the same size as the so-called Tunguska impactor, the unknown object—we don't know exactly what it was—[qh]
這大約和所謂的通古斯撞擊體一樣大，通古斯撞擊體是一個未知物體——我們不知道它到底是什么——[qh]
that came in over Siberia back in 1908 and flattened a huge forest, just knocked all the trees down.[qh]
1908年它飛過西伯利亞，夷平了一大片森林，把所有的樹都吹倒了。[qh]
Real bad news. I think a lot of reindeer had a really bad time but hopefully not too many people. But it would be that kind of thing.[qh]
真是個壞消息。我認為很多馴鹿都過得很慘，但希望不會有太多人。但情況就是這樣。[qh]
And we're looking at a swath of the planet that really encompasses a huge number of major population centers, everywhere from parts of South America to South Asia, parts of India, Africa.[qh]
我們看到的是地球的一片區域，它實際上包含了大量的主要人口中心，從南美洲部分地區到南亞、印度部分地區、非洲。[qh]
If you look at it on a globe, you're like, "Oh, yeah, that's pretty substantial." Now, of course, that region could shrink. And will shrink over time, if it's even gonna impact anyway.[qh]
如果你在地球儀上看它，你會說，“哦，是的，這相當可觀。”當然現在那個區域可能會縮小。而且會隨著時間的推移而縮小，如果它真的要撞擊的話。[qh]
And of course, as frightening as it is to think about it hitting a major population center, the statistical likelihood is that it would probably be in the middle of an ocean.[qh]
當然，想到它會撞擊一個人口稠密的中心，這令人感到恐懼，但從統計上看，它很可能位于海洋中央。[qh]
The ocean, yeah. With nobody around. Yeah, exactly. I mean, you just look at the basic math of it: most of the swath is still gonna be barren, borderline uninhabited.[qh]
是的，是海洋。周圍沒有人。是的，沒錯。你只要看看它的基本數學知識：大部分區域仍將是荒蕪的，幾乎無人居住。[qh]
So for folks really tuned in to this story, you mentioned April, you mentioned 2028, but when should people expect to know more about this object?[qh]
對于真正關注這個故事的人來說，你提到了4月，你提到了2028年，但人們什么時候才能更多地了解這個物體呢？[qh]
Oof, that's tough to say. I think the best way to put it is: if we don't know by late April, early May,[qh]
這很難說。我認為最好的說法是：如果我們到4月底5月初還不知道，[qh]
if we don't know by the time it fades from view in our telescopes, that's when we know, "Oh, wow, we really have to start worrying seriously about this thing." There could be an observation that comes in tomorrow.[qh]
如果我們到它從我們的望遠鏡視野中消失時還不知道，那時我們就知道，“我們真的必須開始認真擔心這個東西了。”明天可能會有觀察結果。[qh]
And when I say observation it's important to note that it's not just people gathering fresh data from the skies with telescopes; it can also be people finding an instance of this object in some catalog, some archival data.[qh]
當我說觀察時，重要的是要注意，這不僅僅是人們用望遠鏡從天空收集新數據；也可能是人們在某個目錄、一些檔案數據中找到這個物體的實例。[qh]
The more data points you get, the more you're able to refine its orbit exactly, all the different parameters of it,[qh]
你得到的數據點越多，你就越能精確地完善它的軌道，它的所有不同參數，[qh]
and then arrive at certainty, but we're not there yet. It could happen tomorrow; it could not happen for months.[qh]
然后得出確定性結論，但我們還沒有做到這一點。它可能在明天發生；也可能幾個月后才會發生。[qh]
