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Have you heard that an asteroid might—just maybe—smack into Earth sometime in the next few years? The rumors are true, though perhaps not as frightening as you might think.[qh]
您是否聽(tīng)說(shuō)過(guò)，在未來(lái)幾年內(nèi)，一顆小行星可能會(huì)（只是有可能）撞擊地球？這些傳言是真的，但可能沒(méi)有您想象的那么可怕。[qh]
The fact is that this asteroid, called 2024 YR4, is both literally and figuratively a moving target.[qh]
事實(shí)上，這顆名為2024 YR4的小行星，無(wú)論是從字面意義上還是從象征意義上來(lái)說(shuō)，都是一個(gè)移動(dòng)目標(biāo)。[qh]
As of February 11, the European Space Agency estimated that the space rock has a 2 percent chance of colliding with Earth on December 22, 2032.[qh]
截至2月11日，歐洲航天局估計(jì)，這顆太空巖石在2032年12月22日與地球相撞的概率為2%。[qh]
That's slightly higher than the risk you'll hear quoted in the episode that follows because we recorded it last week.[qh]
這比您在下期節(jié)目中聽(tīng)到的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)略高，因?yàn)槲覀兩现茕浿屏怂?span style="display:none">Bygi#tIZoQ(rkN
。[qh]Why are those numbers changing so quickly? We promise this isn't a matter of the risk going higher and higher as time goes on. It's a lot more complicated than that.[qh]
為什么這些數(shù)字變化如此之快？我們保證，這不是風(fēng)險(xiǎn)隨著時(shí)間的推移越來(lái)越高的問(wèn)題。它比這復(fù)雜得多。[qh]
Here to explain what's going on with this potentially hazardous asteroid is Lee Billings, a senior editor covering space and physics for Scientific American.[qh]
《科學(xué)美國(guó)人》太空和物理高級(jí)編輯Lee Billings將在這里解釋這顆潛在危險(xiǎn)小行星的情況。[qh]
Lee, thanks so much for coming on to chat. It's my pleasure, as always, Rachel.[qh]
Lee，非常感謝您來(lái)聊天。和往常一樣，這是我的榮幸，Rachel。[qh]
So there's an asteroid with a very low chance of hitting us. Why did this make such a big splash in the news?[qh]
有一顆小行星撞擊我們的可能性非常低。為什么這在新聞中引起了如此大的轟動(dòng)？[qh]
So it made such a big splash in the news because, apparently, a 1 percent or greater chance of being struck by an asteroid is actually a big deal.[qh]
它之所以在新聞中引起如此大的轟動(dòng)，是因?yàn)轱@然，被小行星撞擊的概率為1%或更高實(shí)際上是一件大事。[qh]
And that's what this thing is. It's, it's called 2024 YR4—really rolls off the tongue.[qh]
就是這樣。它被稱(chēng)為2024 YR4——真的很順口。[qh]
It was discovered on December 27 by astronomers using the Asteroid Terrestrial-Impact Last Alert System, or ATLAS, which is a telescope in Chile.[qh]
天文學(xué)家于12月27日使用小行星陸地撞擊最后警報(bào)系統(tǒng)（ATLAS）發(fā)現(xiàn)了它，這是智利的一架望遠(yuǎn)鏡。[qh]
When it was roughly about two times farther out than our moon, it was zooming right by our planet, and folks were able to look at its orbit,[qh]
當(dāng)它距離地球大約比我們的月球遠(yuǎn)兩倍時(shí)，它就飛快地掠過(guò)我們的星球，人們能夠看到它的軌道，[qh]
which they're still piecing together, and determined that it was gonna make another especially close pass on December 22, 2032.[qh]
他們?nèi)栽谄礈愃能壍溃⒋_定它將在2032年12月22日再次近距離飛過(guò)地球。[qh]
And at that time it had about a 1.3 percent chance of striking our planet.[qh]
當(dāng)時(shí)它撞擊地球的概率約為1.3%。[qh]
Got it. So how did we detect this? You mentioned ATLAS, but tell me more about what that telescope does and whose job it is to keep an eye out for these asteroids.[qh]
明白了。那么我們是如何探測(cè)到它的？你提到了ATLAS，但請(qǐng)告訴我更多關(guān)于該望遠(yuǎn)鏡的功能以及誰(shuí)負(fù)責(zé)監(jiān)視這些小行星的信息。[qh]
Last I counted there's somewhere between a half dozen and a dozen wide-field survey telescopes that look at the sky every night, and what they're looking for is moving objects. What do we mean by moving? Everything's moving.[qh]
我最后統(tǒng)計(jì)了一下，大約有六到十二臺(tái)廣角巡天望遠(yuǎn)鏡每天晚上都會(huì)觀測(cè)天空，它們正在尋找移動(dòng)的物體。我們所說(shuō)的移動(dòng)是什么意思？一切都在移動(dòng)。[qh]
We're looking for objects that seem to move against the background of the more distant stars, which don't seem to move 'cause they're so far away.[qh]
我們正在尋找似乎在更遠(yuǎn)的恒星背景下移動(dòng)的物體，這些物體似乎沒(méi)有移動(dòng)，因?yàn)樗鼈兙嚯x太遠(yuǎn)了。[qh]
You can do that by comparing images to each other over time—image A, image B; image A, image B—and you can see a difference, an offset in, in some little point of light. And that'll tell you: that thing's moving.[qh]
你可以通過(guò)比較不同時(shí)間的圖像來(lái)做到這一點(diǎn)——圖像A、圖像B——你可以看到差異，在某個(gè)小光點(diǎn)中有一個(gè)偏移。這會(huì)告訴你：那個(gè)東西在移動(dòng)。[qh]
Most of the time, when they see these things, they know what they are; they're already cataloged. They can quickly refine their orbit, figure out what it is—"Oh, it's this thing in the catalog, sure."[qh]
大多數(shù)情況下，當(dāng)它們看到這些東西時(shí)，它們知道它們是什么；它們已經(jīng)被編入目錄。它們可以快速優(yōu)化它們的軌道，找出它是什么——“哦，這是目錄中的東西，當(dāng)然。”[qh]
But they discover new objects all the time, and most of them prove to be totally harmless, just whizzing by through the solar system. Every now and then, however, one looks a little worrisome.[qh]
但它們一直在發(fā)現(xiàn)新物體，其中大多數(shù)被證明是完全無(wú)害的，只是在太陽(yáng)系中呼嘯而過(guò)。然而，偶爾，有一個(gè)看起來(lái)有點(diǎn)令人擔(dān)憂(yōu)。[qh]
The official threshold for being worrisome is if it's somewhere between 50 meters [about 164 feet] or greater in size,[qh]
令人擔(dān)憂(yōu)的官方門(mén)檻是如果它的尺寸在50米[約164英尺]或更大，[qh]
'cause then it could cause significant damage to Earth if it struck us, and if it's greater than about a 1 percent chance.[qh]
因?yàn)槿绻矒粑覀儯赡軙?huì)對(duì)地球造成重大破壞，并且如果它的概率大于1%。[qh]
And I keep using some caveats here about how certain we are about this thing striking us because this is not a settled story.[qh]
我在這里不斷使用一些警告，說(shuō)明我們對(duì)這個(gè)物體撞擊地球的確定程度，因?yàn)檫@不是定論。[qh]
This is still so fresh that we don't actually have this object's orbit totally refined. We're still getting more information about it.[qh]
這件事仍然很新鮮，我們實(shí)際上還沒(méi)有完全確定這個(gè)物體的軌道。我們?nèi)栽讷@取有關(guān)它的更多信息。[qh]
We're still observing this thing and trying to figure out what exactly it's going to be doing, where exactly it's going in space.[qh]
我們?nèi)栽谟^察這個(gè)物體，試圖弄清楚它到底會(huì)做什么，它到底會(huì)去太空的哪個(gè)地方。[qh]
Late last month, when our story about this published, the odds of it striking were about 1.6 percent. And then, in the following couple of days, they rose to 1.7 percent.[qh]
上個(gè)月底，當(dāng)我們關(guān)于這件事的報(bào)道發(fā)表時(shí)，它撞擊地球的幾率約為1.6%。然后，在接下來(lái)的幾天里，這個(gè)幾率上升到了1.7%。[qh]
About three or four days after the story dropped the odds have gone back down to 1.4 percent.[qh]
在報(bào)道發(fā)表三四天后，幾率又降到了1.4%。[qh]
So, you can see, it's very active and fluid, but the upshot essentially is that if it stays above 1 percent, then folks should be worried about it.[qh]
它非常活躍和不穩(wěn)定，但本質(zhì)上的結(jié)果是，如果它保持在1%以上，那么人們就應(yīng)該擔(dān)心它了。[qh]
As you said, we see lots of objects that we never end up having to worry about. How unusual is it to get something above that 1 percent threshold?[qh]
正如你所說(shuō)，我們看到了很多我們永遠(yuǎn)不必?fù)?dān)心的物體。超過(guò)1%的門(mén)檻有多不尋常？[qh]
The last time this happened was about 20 years ago. Okay! With an asteroid that you might have heard about called Apophis, right?[qh]
上一次發(fā)生這種情況是在大約20年前。好吧！你可能聽(tīng)說(shuō)過(guò)一顆小行星，叫做阿波菲斯，對(duì)吧？[qh]
And Apophis, for a while, also had a greater than 1 percent chance of striking Earth, and it made big headlines, and people got really worried about it—I think it helped spark Hollywood movies and various space missions.[qh]
有一段時(shí)間，阿波菲斯撞擊地球的幾率也超過(guò)1%，這引起了廣泛關(guān)注，人們對(duì)此非常擔(dān)心——我認(rèn)為這有助于啟發(fā)好萊塢電影和各種太空任務(wù)。[qh]
To try to deflect asteroids—so it doesn't happen that often; that's one reason why it's newsworthy.[qh]
試圖轉(zhuǎn)移小行星——所以這種情況并不經(jīng)常發(fā)生；這就是它值得報(bào)道的原因之一。[qh]
But I just wanna emphasize, of course, that typically what does happen with these things is: you'll see this initial oscillation in the chances of it striking Earth,[qh]
但我只想強(qiáng)調(diào)，當(dāng)然，通常情況下，這些事情確實(shí)會(huì)發(fā)生：你會(huì)看到它撞擊地球的幾率最初出現(xiàn)波動(dòng)，[qh]
and then they just fall off a cliff because we refine the orbit, we realize that we're safe, and that's that.[qh]
然后它們就掉下懸崖，因?yàn)槲覀儍?yōu)化了軌道，我們意識(shí)到我們是安全的，就是這樣。[qh]
Sure. This one's a little special, though. T he reason why it's special has to do with what we already know about its orbit and how long it takes to prepare any adequate response to try to prevent disaster.[qh]
當(dāng)然。不過(guò)，這個(gè)小行星有點(diǎn)特別。它之所以特別，是因?yàn)槲覀円蚜私馑能壍溃约靶枰嚅L(zhǎng)時(shí)間才能準(zhǔn)備好應(yīng)災(zāi)措施。[qh]
Essentially, this thing is going to come back to Earth in 2028. We know we're safe from it then. It's already headed away from Earth.[qh]
從本質(zhì)上講，這個(gè)小行星將于2028年返回地球。我們知道那時(shí)我們不會(huì)受到它的威脅。它已經(jīng)遠(yuǎn)離地球了。[qh]
It's whizzing away from us in the solar system. It's going to be too faint to see with telescopes by late April or early May.[qh]
它正在太陽(yáng)系中飛馳而去。到4月底或5月初，它就會(huì)變得太暗，無(wú)法用望遠(yuǎn)鏡看到。[qh]
