中國需求將推動鐵礦石價格大幅飆升

鋼鐵行業(yè)高管和分析師警告稱，由于中國需求旺盛，而市場供應(yīng)不足，鋼鐵行業(yè)明年將迎來鐵礦石合同價格上漲高達50%的局面。

The steel industry is braced for an increase of up to 50 per cent in the contract price of iron ore next year as a result of strong demand from China and lagging supply, industry executives and analysts have warned.

礦業(yè)公司正在艱難地提高全球最大鐵礦石出口國澳大利亞的產(chǎn)出，而中國國內(nèi)開采的鐵礦石質(zhì)量未能改善。另外，印度政府已對鐵礦石征收出口關(guān)稅，以保證本國鋼鐵行業(yè)的充足供應(yīng)。

Mining companies are struggling to increase iron ore output in Australia, the world’s biggest exporter, while the quality of Chinese domestic iron ore production fails to improve. In addition, India’s government has imposed export tariffs to keep its local steel industry well supplied.

過去一年，鐵礦石現(xiàn)貨市場價格已上漲高達145%。除去運費成本，印度鐵礦石現(xiàn)貨價格本周已飆升至每噸130美元，大大高于一年前的53美元。澳大利亞和巴西的現(xiàn)貨價格分別上漲了39%和71%。

The iron ore spot market has already seen price increases of up to 145 per cent over the past year. Excluding freight costs, Indian spot prices have surged this week to $130 a tonne, up from $53 a tonne a year ago. Australian and Brazilian spot prices have jumped 39 and 71 per cent respectively.

渣打銀行(Standard Chartered)駐倫敦金屬分析師丹?史密斯(Dan Smith)表示，鐵礦石現(xiàn)貨市場通常是預(yù)示潛在供需平衡的良好指標(biāo)，為合同談判奠定了基礎(chǔ)。

Dan Smith, a metal analyst at Standard Chartered in London, said the spot market was generally a good indicator of underlying supply and demand balances, and provided the basis for the contract negotiations.

史密斯補充稱：“由于現(xiàn)貨市場的供應(yīng)變得更為緊張，鋼鐵制造商目前似乎處于弱勢。”他預(yù)測鐵礦石價格將上漲50%。

“With the spot market getting even tighter it seems that steel makers are in a weak position,” added Mr Smith, who forecast an increase of 50 per cent.

鐵礦石價格可能大幅上漲之際，美國和歐洲的經(jīng)濟增長正日益放緩。但國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)稱，中國和其它亞洲新興國家將繼續(xù)迅速擴張。

The prospect of a strong price rise comes against the backdrop of slowing growth in the US and Europe. But China and other Asian emerging countries are set to continue rapid expansion, says the International Monetary Fund.

以中國寶鋼(Baosteel)為首的鋼鐵制造商與礦業(yè)公司之間的談判將于未來兩周啟動，談判內(nèi)容是從2008年4月開始為期一年的鐵礦石長期合同價格。

The negotiations between the steelmakers, led by Baosteel of China, and the mining companies are set to start in the next two weeks and cover the price for long-term contracts for the year starting in April 2008.

摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)已將2008年鐵礦石價格漲幅預(yù)期上調(diào)至50%，“以反映異常緊張的市場供應(yīng)”。美林(Merrill Lynch)和麥格理銀行(Macquarie Bank)也預(yù)測鐵礦石價格將上漲50%。JP摩根(JPMorgan)預(yù)期的漲幅為25%至30%。

Morgan Stanley has raised its forecast to a 50 per cent rise in iron ore prices for 2008 “to reflect an exceptionally tight market”. Merrill Lynch and Macquarie Bank also forecast a 50 per cent increase while JPMorgan forecasts a 25-30 per cent rise.