油價金價再創新高

在美元再度走軟之際，原油及黃金價格昨日再創新高，因投資者試圖躲避第二輪信貸動蕩的沖擊。

Crude oil and gold prices surged to fresh highs yesterday amid renewed dollar weakness as investors sought refuge from a second wave of credit turmoil.

西德克薩斯中質原油(West Texas Intermediate)大幅上漲逾3美元，創下每桶97.07美元的名義高點，交易員警告稱，如果本周美國原油庫存數據較上周又有下降，油價最早可能于今日試探每桶100美元的水平。

West Texas Intermediate jumped more than $3 to a nominal record of $97.07 a barrel and traders warned it might test the $100-a-barrel level as soon as today if US crude oil inventories show another weekly decline.

美國能源情報署(Energy Information Administration)一份看漲的報告推動了油價上漲，報告稱“緊張的基本面因素”將繼續推高油價。能源情報署是美國能源部(Department of Energy)的統計機構。

The price jump was helped by a bullish report from the Energy Information Administration, the statistical arm of the US Energy Department, warning that “tight fundamentals” would continue to push up oil prices.

能源情報署預測原油價格“在未來數月內將超過每桶80美元”，在2008年將維持在每桶75美元以上，因為“全球原油市場可能仍將處于緊張狀態。”該機構表示，石油輸出國組織(OPEC，簡稱歐佩克)需要在目前每日增產50萬桶的基礎上，再增產70萬桶，從而使市場維持平衡狀態，直到明年第一季度。

The EIA forecast that crude oil prices would “exceed $80 per barrel over the next several months” and trade above $75 a barrel in 2008 as “global oil markets will likely remain stretched.” It said the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries would need to add another 700,000 barrels a day on top of its current production increase of 500,000 b/d to balance the market through the first quarter of 2008.

針對原油價格在1年內超過每桶100美元的看漲期權價格飆升至每桶4.15美元，較10月底上漲近70%。

The cost of using options contracts to insure against crude oil trading at $100 in a year’s time surged to $4.15 per barrel, up almost 70 per cent since the end of October.

在原油價格上漲和美元不斷走軟的共同作用下，黃金價格升至824.3美元/盎司的28年高點，僅略低于1980年1月份850美元/盎司的歷史高點。

The combination of strong crude oil prices and a weakening dollar boosted gold prices to a fresh 28-year high of $824.3 an ounce, just below its all-time high of $850 reached in January 1980.

貴金屬交易員們表示，投資者在增持黃金——沒有人賣出。Dresdner Kleinwort駐倫敦的貴金屬業務主管大衛?赫爾姆斯(David Holmes)表示，金價升至每盎司850美元的“可能性很大。”

Precious metals traders said investors were adding to their gold positions – no one was selling. David Holmes, head of precious metals at Dresdner Kleinwort in London, said a rise to $850 was “very much on the cards”.

瑞銀集團(UBS)駐倫敦的貴金屬策略主管約翰?里德(John Reade)將其1個月期金價預測定為“不可避免的”每盎司850美元。

John Reade, head of metals strategy at UBS in London, upgraded its one-month gold forecast to an “inevitable” $850 an ounce.