投行的快樂和苦惱

并非所有地方的投行環境都是那么令人生畏——至少在東方不是。湯姆森金融(Thomson Financial)稱，今年到目前為止，亞太地區（日本除外）的交易規模比去年同期增長了40%。市場的復蘇令證券交易業務大獲其利。第三季度，在全球其它市場局面相當糟糕的情況下，花旗集團(Citigroup)在亞太地區賺取了11億美元的凈利潤，僅略少于2002年全年的貢獻。美國銀行(Bank of America)持有的中國建設銀行(CCB)股份在第三季度增值達42億美元。雖然人們感覺不到，但這一收益在規模上要遠遠大于同一季度14.6億美元的交易損失。

It’s not all grim in investment banking ? at least not out east. Asia Pacific ex-Japan deal sizes are up 40 per cent year-to-date, according to Thomson Financial. Resurgent markets are benefiting securities trading. In an otherwise ugly third quarter, Citigroup generated net earnings of $1.1bn in the region ? not far short of the entire 2002 contribution. Bank of America’s stake in China Construction Bank was worth an extra $4.2bn over the course of the third quarter. That dwarfs the $1.46bn of trading losses racked up in the same quarter, in magnitude if not perception.

即便在全球情況普遍不錯的時候，亞洲業務的盈利表現也更勝一籌。以高盛(Goldman Sachs)為例，該銀行去年的稅前收益有28%來自亞洲，相比之下只有21%來自歐洲。這一增長部分源自中國規模巨大的私有化交易。不過，該行一些最大的客戶也來自亞洲：國家支持的投資機構，如活躍在全球舞臺上的新加坡政府投資公司(GIC)和淡馬錫(Temasek)。亞洲中產階級的崛起，意味著即使那些傳統上專注于批發服務的銀行也在增加人手。蘇格蘭皇家銀行(Royal Bank of Scotland)計劃，到2010年，其收入的10%來自亞洲。

Even when times are universally good, Asia punches above its weight in terms of profitability. Take Goldman Sachs, which last year derived 28 per cent of pre-tax earnings from Asia compared with just 21 per cent in Europe. Part of the growth is due to China’s mega-privatisations. But Asia is also home to some of the bank’s biggest-spending clients: state-backed investment agencies such as Singapore’s GIC and Temasek, which are active on the global stage. The emergence of Asian middle classes means even banks traditionally focused on wholesale services are beefing up. Royal Bank of Scotland is targeting 10 per cent of revenues from Asia by 2010.

越來越依賴亞洲并非沒有風險——在1997至1998年的金融危機和隨后的非典危機中見證了市場崩潰的人可以證實這一點。中國的股票發行更多的是選擇在上海進行，而不是自由開放的香港——在上海，只有很少幾家國際承銷商和交易商得到了牌照。亞洲的政策制定者可以破壞有利可圖的業務：例如，印度政府上周就宣布限制參與憑證(participatory note)的使用。但是，亞洲狂歡年的真正麻煩在于，獎金池是全球性的。亞洲的IPO從業人員已經開始抱怨，西方機構分得的蛋糕太大了。

A growing dependence on Asia is not without risks ? as those who watched markets flounder during the financial crisis of 1997-98 and the subsequent Sars virus could testify. More Chinese equity offerings are taking place in Shanghai, where only a handful of international underwriters and traders are licensed, rather than in free-for-all Hong Kong. Regional policy makers can pull the rug from under lucrative business lines, as seen last week when India restricted the use of participatory notes.

But the real downside to a cracking year in Asia is that bonus pools are global. Asian IPO toilers are starting to moanthat too big a share of the spoils ends up in pockets back west.