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The world ahead
2025年度展望
Cities of the future: why China's second- and third-tier cities are thriving?
未來的城市：中國的二三線城市為何繁榮？
Until very recently, China’s young people, investors, consumers and creators flocked to just four cities: Beijing, the capital; Shanghai, a financial hub; Shenzhen, a tech centre; and Guangzhou, an export powerhouse.
直到不久前，中國的年輕人、投資者、消費(fèi)者和創(chuàng)作者還只涌向四個(gè)城市：首都北京、金融中心上海、科技中心深圳和出口重鎮(zhèn)廣州。
With giant populations, superior public services and gleaming infrastructure, these were dubbed “first-tier” cities by the government.
這些城市擁有龐大的人口、優(yōu)越的公共服務(wù)和便捷誘人的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施，被政府稱為“一線”城市。
But in 2025 China’s smaller cities will start to steal their thunder.
但在2025年，中國的小城市將開始搶占先機(jī)。
First-tier cities are losing their lustre.
一線城市正在失去它們的光彩。
They have become unaffordable for most Chinese: median house prices are typically 30-40 times higher than median incomes.
對于大多數(shù)中國人來說，房價(jià)已經(jīng)變得難以承受：房價(jià)中位數(shù)通常是收入中位數(shù)的30-40倍。
They also have a poor quality of life, with many companies demanding a ”996” work schedule (9am-9pm, six days a week).
他們的生活質(zhì)量也很差，許多公司要求“996”工作時(shí)間表(一周六天，每天從早上9點(diǎn)到晚上9點(diǎn))。
Underpaid and overworked, their residents are spending less amid China’s economic slump.
在中國經(jīng)濟(jì)不景氣的情況下，工資過低、工作過度的居民支出也隨之減少。
Profits in Beijing’s restaurant sector fell by nearly 90% in the first half of 2024.
2024年上半年，北京餐飲業(yè)的利潤下降了近90%。
Many second- or third-tier cities, meanwhile, are on the up.
與此同時(shí)，許多二三線城市的房價(jià)也在上漲。
Their infrastructure is top-notch, housing is relatively cheap and the pace of work is more relaxed.
他們的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施是一流的，住房相對便宜，工作節(jié)奏更輕松。
Their economic growth often outpaces the national average.
他們的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長經(jīng)常超過全國平均水平。
And by Western standards, they are still giants: many have populations of over 10m, and are still growing rapidly.
按照西方的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，它們?nèi)匀皇蔷扌统鞘校涸S多國家的人口超過1000萬，而且仍在快速增長。
Beijing and Shanghai, by contrast, are now shrinking.
相比之下，北京和上海的人口現(xiàn)在正在縮水。
In 2025 it will be consumers in smaller cities who will keep businesses afloat.
到2025年，小城市的消費(fèi)者將供養(yǎng)企業(yè)能夠繼續(xù)運(yùn)營。
With lower living costs, they can afford to splash out.
由于生活成本較低，他們有余力大肆消費(fèi)。
Little wonder that coffee shops and electric-car dealers are springing up on smaller cities’ streets.
難怪咖啡店和電動(dòng)汽車經(jīng)銷商如雨后春筍般出現(xiàn)在小城市的街道上。
Yum China, which operates kfc, a fast-food chain, plans to add several thousand new outlets by 2026, more than half of them in smaller cities.
經(jīng)營快餐連鎖店肯德基的“百勝中國”計(jì)劃到2026年新增數(shù)千家門店，其中一半以上位于較小的城市。
In the coming year smaller cities will attract more young people.
在接下來的一年里，小城市將吸引更多的年輕人。
Surveys suggest that white-collar workers are increasingly sick of the tier-one grind.
調(diào)查顯示，白領(lǐng)們越來越厭倦這種繁重的工作。
In the summer 12m students will graduate from China’s universities.
明年夏天，中國將有1200萬名大學(xué)生畢業(yè)。
Many will look for jobs, not in Beijing and Shanghai, but in cities like Changsha and Nanjing—provincial capitals with vibrant cultural industries.
許多人會(huì)找工作，他們不是去北京和上海，而是去長沙和南京等文化產(chǎn)業(yè)蓬勃發(fā)展的省會(huì)城市。
Both are attracting lots of livestreamers, musicians and artists.
兩者都吸引了大量的直播人員、音樂家和藝術(shù)家。
Talented young people will help China’s smaller cities make technological progress, too.
才華橫溢的年輕人也將幫助中國所在的小城市取得技術(shù)進(jìn)步。
Take Hefei, a former backwater in eastern China’s Anhui province.
以合肥為例，它所在的安徽省曾是中國一窮二白的地方。
Thanks to government investment and private enterprise, it now has a thriving tech sector, with industries like high-end manufacturing, biotech and semiconductors.
多虧了政府投資和私營企業(yè)，它現(xiàn)在擁有了蓬勃發(fā)展的科技行業(yè)，包括高端制造、生物技術(shù)和半導(dǎo)體等行業(yè)。
In the coming year officials will focus on developing its “l(fā)ow-altitude economy”, China’s preferred term for delivery drones and flying taxis.
在接下來的一年里，官員們將把重點(diǎn)放在發(fā)展“低空經(jīng)濟(jì)”上。“低空經(jīng)濟(jì)”是中國對送貨無人機(jī)和飛行出租車的稱呼。
Smaller cities can offer a more relaxed political atmosphere, too.
較小城市里的政治氛圍也更寬松。
Chengdu, a city in the south-west, is known for its teahouses, laid-back lifestyle and counter-cultural music.
成都，一個(gè)西南部的城市，以其茶館、悠閑的生活方式和反文化音樂而聞名。
It is increasingly drawing liberal-minded young people from first-tier cities.
它正越來越多地吸引來自一線城市的思想開明的年輕人。
