評論
打印
As booming demand runs up against tight supply, inflation is in the spotlight. In April American consumer prices rose by 4.2% year on year, up from 2.6% in March. This partly reflects “base effects”: oil prices are only as high as they were in 2019, but 272% higher than in April 2020. It also reflects a genuine underlying rise in global prices. China’s factory-gate prices are rising at the fastest rate in over three years.
旺盛的需求遇到緊張的供給，使通貨膨脹成為人們關注的焦點。今年4月，美國居民消費價格同比上漲4.2%，高于3月份的2.6%。這在一定程度上反映了“基準效應”：今年油價僅與2019年持平，但比2020年4月高出272%。這也反映了全球價格的上漲實質。中國的出廠價格正以三年多來最快的速度上漲。
Central banks insist that their maximal stimulus must continue for fear of jeopardising the nascent recovery. Lael Brainard, a governor of the Federal Reserve, has said that the inflation spike as the economy reopens will be “largely transitory”. Jerome Powell, the chairman, sees little reason to worry. The Fed will tolerate somewhat above-target inflation for a bit, in part because it expects prices soon to fall back. So do many forecasters.
各國央行堅持認為，必須繼續實施最大規模的刺激措施，以免危及剛剛起步的復蘇。美聯儲理事雷爾·布雷納德曾表示，隨著經濟重新開放，通脹飆升將“基本上是暫時的”。美聯儲主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾認為沒必要擔心。美聯儲將在一段時間內容忍略超標的通脹，部分原因是美聯儲預計物價很快就會回落。許多預測者也抱有同樣的想法。
Yet this approach carries dangers. One is that inflation fades slowly. The supply bottlenecks of the early phase of the pandemic in 2020 cleared fast, but there is no guarantee this will happen now. Inflation expectations may also rise if people come to believe that central banks will act slowly and too late. Many companies are now discussing inflation with their investors. Bond-market traders think the Fed will be forced to act sooner than it wants. Bill Dudley, a former governor, worries that the Fed will have to raise interest rates to as high as 4.5% to cool the economy.
然而，這種做法也帶來了隱患。其中一種隱患是通脹消退緩慢。2020年疫情初期的供應瓶頸很快就消除了，但現在還不能保證相同的情況還會發生。如果人們認為央行行動緩慢且運作過晚，通脹預期也可能上升。許多公司現在正與投資者討論通貨膨脹問題。債券市場交易員認為，美聯儲將被迫提前采取行動。前紐約聯儲主席比爾·達德利擔心，美聯儲將被迫將利率上調至4.5%，以冷卻經濟。
This points to the danger that sharp rate rises rock markets. So far the main event has been a sell-off in tech stocks, which is manageable. Banks are well capitalised. Yet the recent implosions of Archegos, a hedge fund, and Greensill Capital, a finance firm, are a reminder of the hidden leverage in a financial system that has come to depend on low interest rates. The post-pandemic boom may not always be exciting for the right reasons.
這也表明了另一個隱患，大幅加息可能會使市場動蕩。到目前為止，重大事件還只是科技股的拋售，尚在可控范圍內。銀行資金充足。然而，最近對沖基金Archegos爆倉和金融公司Greensill Capital申請破產提醒我們，金融體系中隱藏的杠桿依賴于低利率。出于這些合理的理由，疫情后的繁榮可能并不總是令人興奮的。
譯文由可可原創，僅供學習交流使用，未經許可請勿轉載。
