評論
打印
Leaders
社論
Supply shortages
供應短缺
The bottleneck economy
瓶頸經濟
America’s boom is increasing worries about an inflation scare
美國的繁榮引起了人們對通貨膨脹的進一步擔憂
The global economy is entering unfamiliar territory. After a decade of worries about inadequate demand and spending power in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, signs of insufficient supply are now emerging. A lack of goods, services and people means that red-hot demand is increasingly met slowly or not at all. There are already signs that supply bottlenecks may lead to nasty surprises which could upset the post-pandemic recovery. Nowhere are shortages more acute than in America, where a boom is under way. Consumer spending is growing by over 10% at an annual rate, as people put to work the $2trn-plus of extra savings accumulated in the past year. More stimulus is still being doled out.
全球經濟正在進入一個陌生地帶。自全球金融危機爆發以來，人們對需求不足和消費能力不足的擔憂已持續了十年，而供應不足的跡象如今已經嶄露頭角。商品、服務和人力的匱乏意味著強烈需求的滿足過程越來越緩慢，或根本無法滿足。已經有跡象表明，供應瓶頸可能導致嚴重意外，從而可能擾亂疫情后的復蘇。正處于繁榮時期的美國面臨著最嚴重的短缺。消費者支出正以每年超過10%的速度增長，因為過去一年積累的超過2萬億美元的額外儲蓄正在發揮作用。更多的刺激措施的救濟金仍在發放。
The boom is creating two kinds of bottleneck. The first relates to supply chains. There are shortages of everything from timber to semiconductors. The cost of shipping goods from China to America has tripled. Companies have not reported supplier delays this severe in decades. In the past year many firms have cut their investment in logistics. Lockdowns have left some container ships stranded. Companies are trying to go from 0 to 60 and it shows.
經濟繁榮正在造成兩種瓶頸。其一是供應鏈瓶頸。從木材到半導體，一切物資都出現了短缺。從中國到美國的運輸成本增加了兩倍。幾十年來，公司從未報告過如此嚴重的供應商運輸延遲問題。在過去的一年里，許多公司削減了對物流的投資。封鎖致使一些集裝箱船滯留。眾多公司顯然正試圖將物流狀態從停滯轉換為全速運輸。
The second kind of bottleneck is in labour markets. In April America created only 266,000 jobs, many fewer than the 1m or more that had been expected. Yet job vacancies are at all-time highs, and so firms are struggling to fill positions. Economists argue over whether generous unemployment benefits are giving people a reason not to look for work. It also takes time for people to move from dying industries to growing ones.
其二是勞動力市場瓶頸。今年4月，美國僅創造了26.6萬個就業崗位，遠低于預期的100萬個或更多。然而，職位空缺率創下了歷史新高，因此各公司都在努力填補空缺。慷慨的失業救濟金是否給了人們不找工作的理由，經濟學家們對此爭論不休。人們還需要花時間從夕陽行業轉向朝陽行業。
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