What is most politically significant about this shift from a logic of statistics to one of data is how comfortably it sits with the rise of populism. Populist leaders can heap scorn upon traditional experts, such as economists and pollsters, while trusting in a different form of numerical analysis altogether. Such politicians rely on a new, less visible elite, who seek out patterns from vast data banks, but rarely make any public pronouncements, let alone publish any evidence. These data analysts are often physicists or mathematicians, whose skills are not developed for the study of society at all. This, for example, is the worldview propagated by Dominic Cummings, former adviser to Michael Gove and campaign director of Vote Leave. "Physics, mathematics and computer science are domains in which there are real experts, unlike macro-economic forecasting," Cummings has argued.
這種從統計邏輯向數據邏輯的轉變最具政治意義的地方在于:它和民粹主義的崛起相去甚遠。民粹主義領導人可以對經濟學家和民意調查專家等傳統專家嗤之以鼻,卻完全相信另一種形式的數字分析。這些政客依賴于一個新的、不那么引人注目的精英階層,他們從龐大的數據庫中尋找規律,但很少發表公開聲明,更不用說發布什么證據了。這些數據分析師通常是物理學家或數學家,他們的技能根本不適合用來研究社會。例如,下面是邁克爾·戈夫的前顧問、“脫歐”運動負責人多米尼克·卡明斯所宣揚的世界觀,他認為:物理、數學和計算機科學領域有真正的專家,宏觀經濟預測領域則沒有。”
Figures close to Donald Trump, such as his chief strategist Steve Bannon and the Silicon Valley billionaire Peter Thiel, are closely acquainted with cutting-edge data analytics techniques, via companies such as Cambridge Analytica, on whose board Bannon sits. During the presidential election campaign, Cambridge Analytica drew on various data sources to develop psychological profiles of millions of Americans, which it then used to help Trump target voters with tailored messaging.
和唐納德·特朗普關系密切的人物,比如他的首席策略師史蒂夫·班農和硅谷億萬富翁彼得·蒂爾,都通過班農擔任董事會成員的劍橋分析公司等公司來熟知尖端的數據分析技術。在總統競選期間,劍橋分析公司利用各種數據來源開發了數百萬美國人的心理檔案,然后利用這些資料幫助特朗普針對選民定制信息。
This ability to develop and refine psychological insights across large populations is one of the most innovative and controversial features of the new data analysis. As techniques of "sentiment analysis", which detect the mood of large numbers of people by tracking indicators such as word usage on social media, become incorporated into political campaigns, the emotional allure of figures such as Trump will become amenable to scientific scrutiny. In a world where the political feelings of the general public are becoming this traceable, who needs pollsters?
這種在大量人群中發展和完善心理學洞察力的能力是新數據分析最具創新性和爭議性的特征之一。“情緒分析”技術通過追蹤社交媒體上的用詞等指標來探測大量人群的情緒,隨著“情緒分析”技術被納入政治競選,像特朗普這樣的人物的情感誘惑將會受到科學的審視。在一個公眾的政治情緒變得如此可追蹤的世界里,誰還需要民意測驗專家呢?