The rise of identity politics since the 1960s has put additional strain on such systems of classification. Statistical data is only credible if people will accept the limited range of demographic categories that are on offer, which are selected by the expert not the respondent. But where identity becomes a political issue, people demand to define themselves on their own terms, where gender, sexuality, race or class is concerned.
20世紀60年代之后身份政治的興起給這種分類體系帶來了額外的壓力。只有當人們接受了提供的由專家而不是被調查者選擇的有限的人口統計類別時,統計數據才可信。但當身份成為一個政治問題時,人們就會要求用自己的方式來定義自己,比如性別、性取向、種族或階級。
Opinion polling may be suffering for similar reasons. Polls have traditionally captured people's attitudes and preferences, on the reasonable assumption that people will behave accordingly. But in an age of declining political participation, it is not enough simply to know which box someone would prefer to put an "X" in. One also needs to know whether they feel strongly enough about doing so to bother. And when it comes to capturing such fluctuations in emotional intensity, polling is a clumsy tool.
民意調查也可能因為類似的原因而受到影響。民意調查一般根據人們會做出相應行為的合理假設來捕捉人們的態度和偏好。但在政治參與度下降的時代,僅僅知道某人更愿意在哪個盒子里放“X”是不夠的,還需知道他們是否有足夠強烈的意愿去這樣做。當要捕捉情緒強度的波動時,民意測驗是一種笨拙的工具。
Statistics have faced criticism regularly over their long history. The challenges that identity politics and globalisation present to them are not new either. Why then do the events of the past year feel quite so damaging to the ideal of quantitative expertise and its role in political debate?
統計數據在其漫長的歷史中經常受到批評,身份政治和全球化給其帶來的挑戰也已司空見慣。那么,為什么我們會覺得過去一年里發生的事件對定量專家的理想及其在政治辯論中的作用有如此大的破壞性呢?
In recent years, a new way of quantifying and visualising populations has emerged that potentially pushes statistics to the margins, ushering in a different era altogether. Statistics, collected and compiled by technical experts, are giving way to data that accumulates by default, as a consequence of sweeping digitisation. Traditionally, statisticians have known which questions they wanted to ask regarding which population, then set out to answer them. By contrast, data is automatically produced whenever we swipe a loyalty card, comment on Facebook or search for something on Google. As our cities, cars, homes and household objects become digitally connected, the amount of data we leave in our trail will grow even greater. In this new world, data is captured first and research questions come later.
近年來出現了一種量化和可視化人口的新方法,這種方法有可能將數據推向邊緣,從而開創一個完全不同的時代。由于大規模數字化,由技術專家收集和匯編的統計數據正在讓位于默認情況下積累的數據。一般情況下,統計學家已經知道他們想針對哪些人口問哪些問題,然后著手回答這些問題。相比之下,每當我們刷會員卡、在臉書上發表評論或者在谷歌上搜索某個東西時,數據就會自動生成。隨著我們的城市、汽車、住宅和家用物品的數字化連接,我們留下的數據量將會越來越大。在這個新的世界,首先是獲取數據,其次才是研究問題。