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英國衛報:你還在相信統計數據嗎?(10)

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Consider the changing political and economic geography of nation states over the past 40 years. The statistics that dominate political debate are largely national in character: poverty levels, unemployment, GDP, net migration. But the geography of capitalism has been pulling in somewhat different directions. Plainly globalisation has not rendered geography irrelevant. In many cases it has made the location of economic activity far more important, exacerbating the inequality between successful locations (such as London or San Francisco) and less successful locations (such as north-east England or the US rust belt). The key geographic units involved are no longer nation states. Rather, it is cities, regions or individual urban neighbourhoods that are rising and falling.

想想過去40年里各民族國家政治和經濟地理的變化。在政治辯論中占主導地位的統計數據在很大程度上是全國性的:貧困水平、失業率、GDP、凈移民。但資本主義的地理位置卻在向不同的方向發展,顯然,全球化并沒有讓地理位置變得無關緊要,很多情況下它反而加大了位置在經濟活動中的重要性,加劇了成功地區(如倫敦或舊金山)和欠成功地區(如英格蘭東北部或美國“銹帶”地區)之間的不平等。其中所涉及的主要地理單位也不再是民族國家,而是那些興衰起伏的城市、地區或者單個城市社區。

The Enlightenment ideal of the nation as a single community, bound together by a common measurement framework, is harder and harder to sustain. If you live in one of the towns in the Welsh valleys that was once dependent on steel manufacturing or mining for jobs, politicians talking of how "the economy" is "doing well" are likely to breed additional resentment. From that standpoint, the term "GDP" fails to capture anything meaningful or credible.

啟蒙運動理想中的國家是一個由共同度量框架連接在一起的單一社區,而這種理想越來越難以維持。威爾士山谷里的城鎮曾經依靠鋼鐵制造業和采礦業供人們謀生,如果你住在那里的一個城鎮上,談論“經濟”如何“表現良好”的政治家可能會招致更多不滿。從這一點來看,“GDP”一詞并不能準確反映任何有意義或可信的東西。

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When macroeconomics is used to make a political argument, this implies that the losses in one part of the country are offset by gains somewhere else. Headline-grabbing national indicators, such as GDP and inflation, conceal all sorts of localised gains and losses that are less commonly discussed by national politicians. Immigration may be good for the economy overall, but this does not mean that there are no local costs at all. So when politicians use national indicators to make their case, they implicitly assume some spirit of patriotic mutual sacrifice on the part of voters: you might be the loser on this occasion, but next time you might be the beneficiary. But what if the tables are never turned? What if the same city or region wins over and over again, while others always lose? On what principle of give and take is that justified?

當宏觀經濟學被用來進行政治辯論時,說明這個國家某一地區的損失和其它地方的收益中和了。花里胡哨的國家指標(比如GDP和通脹)掩蓋了各國政客不常討論的局部收益和損失。移民從整體上來說可能有益,但并不是說不需要付出絲毫代價。當政客們用國家指標來證明自己的論點時,他們含蓄地假定選民都是愛國的,都有某種相互奉獻的精神:這次可能是受損方,下次可能就是受益方。但是,如果形勢從未逆轉呢?如果每次都是同一個城市或地區獲勝、其它城市或地區失敗呢?給予和索取應當遵循什么樣的原則才合乎情理呢?

In Europe, the currency union has exacerbated this problem. The indicators that matter to the European Central Bank (ECB), for example, are those representing half a billion people. The ECB is concerned with the inflation or unemployment rate across the eurozone as if it were a single homogeneous territory, at the same time as the economic fate of European citizens is splintering in different directions, depending on which region, city or neighbourhood they happen to live in. Official knowledge becomes ever more abstracted from lived experience, until that knowledge simply ceases to be relevant or credible.

在歐洲,貨幣同盟加劇了這一問題。例如,對歐洲中央銀行(ECB)來說,那些代表5億人口的指標才是重要的指標。歐洲央行關心的是整個歐元區的通脹或失業率,就好像它是一個單一區域。與此同時,歐洲公民的經濟命運正因他們恰好住在哪個地區、城市或者社區而分裂成不同的方向。官方知識從生活經驗中變得越來越抽象,直到這種知識不再相關或可信。

重點單詞   查看全部解釋    
framework ['freimwə:k]

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n. 結構,框架,參照標準,體系

 
sustain [səs'tein]

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vt. 承受,支持,經受,維持,認可

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poverty ['pɔvəti]

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n. 貧困,貧乏

 
additional [ə'diʃənl]

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adj. 附加的,另外的

 
resentment [ri'zentmənt]

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n. 怨恨,憤恨

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principle ['prinsəpl]

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n. 原則,原理,主義,信念

 
urban ['ə:bən]

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adj. 城市的,都市的

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dependent [di'pendənt]

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adj. 依靠的,依賴的,從屬的
n.

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overall [əuvə'rɔ:l]

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adj. 全部的,全體的,一切在內的
adv.

 
homogeneous [.hɔmə'dʒi:niəs]

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adj. 同種的,相似的,同質的

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關鍵字: 民主 衛報 統計數據

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