評論
打印
How statistics lost their power – and why we should fear what comes next
統計數據是如何失去其力量的？為什么我們要擔心接下來會發生什么
The ability of statistics to accurately represent the world is declining. In its wake, a new age of big data controlled by private companies is taking over – and putting democracy in peril
統計準確反映世界的能力正在下降。隨之而來的是，一個由私企控制的大數據新時代正在到來，這讓民主處于危險之中
by William Davies
作者：威廉姆·戴維斯
In theory, statistics should help settle arguments. They ought to provide stable reference points that everyone – no matter what their politics – can agree on. Yet in recent years, divergent levels of trust in statistics has become one of the key schisms that have opened up in western liberal democracies. Shortly before the November presidential election, a study in the US discovered that 68% of Trump supporters distrusted the economic data published by the federal government. In the UK, a research project by Cambridge University and YouGov looking at conspiracy theories discovered that 55% of the population believes that the government "is hiding the truth about the number of immigrants living here".
理論上，統計數據應該有助于解決爭論。它們應該提供穩定的參考點，讓所有人——無論他們的政治立場是什么——都能達成一致。然而，近年來，對統計數據的不同信任程度已成為西方自由民主國家出現的一個關鍵分裂。在11月總統大選前不久，美國的一項研究發現，68%的特朗普支持者不信任聯邦政府公布的經濟數據。在英國，劍橋大學和輿觀調查網調查陰謀論的一項研究項目發現，55%的人認為政府“隱瞞了居住在這里的移民數量的真相”。
Rather than diffusing controversy and polarisation, it seems as if statistics are actually stoking them. Antipathy to statistics has become one of the hallmarks of the populist right, with statisticians and economists chief among the various "experts" that were ostensibly rejected by voters in 2016. Not only are statistics viewed by many as untrustworthy, there appears to be something almost insulting or arrogant about them. Reducing social and economic issues to numerical aggregates and averages seems to violate some people's sense of political decency.
統計數據似乎并沒有分散爭議和兩極分化，反而加劇了它們。厭惡統計已成為民粹主義右翼的標志之一，在2016年被選民表面拒絕的各類“專家”當中，統計學家和經濟學家位居首位。許多人不僅認為統計數據不值得信任，而且認為這些數據似乎有些無禮或傲慢。將社會和經濟問題簡化為數字的總和和平均數似乎違反了一些人的政治正義感。
