In the second half of the 17th century, in the aftermath of prolonged and bloody conflicts, European rulers adopted an entirely new perspective on the task of government, focused upon demographic trends – an approach made possible by the birth of modern statistics. Since ancient times, censuses had been used to track population size, but these were costly and laborious to carry out and focused on citizens who were considered politically important (property-owning men), rather than society as a whole. Statistics offered something quite different, transforming the nature of politics in the process.
17世紀下半葉,在長期血腥沖突的余波中,歐洲統治者對政府的任務采取了一種全新的視角,關注人口趨勢——現代統計學的誕生使這種方法成為可能。從古代起,人口普查就被用來追蹤人口規模,但進行這些普查既昂貴又費力,而且只關注那些被認為具有政治重要性的公民(擁有財產的男人),而不是整個社會。統計數據提供了一些完全不同的東西,在這個過程中改變了政治的性質。
Statistics were designed to give an understanding of a population in its entirety, rather than simply to pinpoint strategically valuable sources of power and wealth. In the early days, this didn't always involve producing numbers. In Germany, for example (from where we get the term Statistik) the challenge was to map disparate customs, institutions and laws across an empire of hundreds of micro-states. What characterised this knowledge as statistical was its holistic nature: it aimed to produce a picture of the nation as a whole. Statistics would do for populations what cartography did for territory.
統計數據的目的是讓人們了解整個人口,而不是簡單地指出具有戰略價值的權力和財富來源。在早期,這并不總是涉及生產數字。以德國為例(“統計學家”一詞由此而來),在這個由數百個微小國家組成的帝國中,要繪制出不同的習俗、制度和法律的地圖是一項挑戰。這種統計知識的特點在于它的整體性:它旨在描繪整個國家的面貌。統計對人口的作用就像制圖對領土的作用一樣。
Equally significant was the inspiration of the natural sciences. Thanks to standardised measures and mathematical techniques, statistical knowledge could be presented as objective, in much the same way as astronomy. Pioneering English demographers such as William Petty and John Graunt adapted mathematical techniques to estimate population changes, for which they were hired by Oliver Cromwell and Charles II.
同樣重要的是自然科學的靈感。由于標準化的措施和數學技術,統計知識可以被客觀地呈現出來,就像天文學一樣。英國的人口學家先驅,比如威廉·佩蒂和約翰·格羅爾特,曾被奧利弗·克倫威爾和查爾斯二世雇用,采用數學技術來估計人口變化。