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經濟學人:列克星頓專欄--美國大選的雙重否定(3)

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These are valid concerns, which will not be fully allayed until the returns are in. (Representative G.K. Butterfield, whose congressional district includes Greenville, said his biggest fear was of a covid-19 surge a week before the election.) Yet Lexington’s day on the trail suggested the Democrats may be worrying a bit too much.

這些都是合理的擔憂,而且在疫情恢復之前,這樣的擔憂不會完全消除。(格林維爾選舉區的眾議員巴特菲爾德說,他最擔心的是在大選前一周出現新冠肺炎激增。)然而筆者一天的行程表明,民主黨人可能過慮了。

Voting for the least bad option is not a novelty to black voters. The exuberance of their support for Barack Obama (“The most beautiful thing I’ve ever seen,” recalled Ms Perkins) was an anomaly. They generally take a starkly pragmatic view of politics. For many black voters, elections represent more a source of protection than a promise of future perfection. Their dogged support for the often-disappointing Democrats illustrates that. Republicans tend to ascribe it to leftist identity politics; it is more a defensive measure against a majority-white party that has often sought to repress their voting rights. Mr Trump, who this week randomly accused his opponents of wanting to build “projects” in the leafy suburbs, has hardened that suspicion, and thereby drawn a predictable African-American response. Asked what would get her neighbours to the polls in numbers, Ms Perkins replied: “Fear. Fear of covid. Fear of losing your job and house. Fear of being shot while watching TV in your house.” As an indicator of likely black turnout, enthusiasm for the candidate may be overrated.

對于黑人選民來說,投票給不是最差的選擇并非新鮮事。他們對奧巴馬的大力支持是一種反?,F象。(“我見過最美好的事情,”珀金斯回憶道)。他們通常對政治持有非常務實的觀點。對許多黑人選民來說,選舉更多代表著一種保護,而不是對完美的未來的承諾。他們對那些往往會令人失望的民主黨人的支持說明了這一點。共和黨人傾向于將這種現象歸因于他們對左派的政治認同;這更像是一種針對多數白人政黨的防御措施,白人政黨常常試圖壓制黑人選民的投票權。特朗普本周隨意指責他的對手希望在綠樹成蔭的郊區建設“項目”,他將這種懷疑深入人心,并因此引發了可以預見的非裔美國人的反應。在問及是什么導致帕金斯的鄰居們參與民調時,帕金斯回答道:“是因為害怕。害怕新冠肺炎。害怕失去工作和房屋。害怕在家看電視時遭到槍殺?!焙谌诉x民對候選人的熱情是投票率的一個指標,但是他們的熱情可能被高估了。

31blackvoters1-mediumSquareAt3X.jpg

Without underestimating the covid-related uncertainties, there are also indicators that the virus could have less of a dampening effect than nervous Democrats fear. Projections from the latest survey data suggest black turnout is on course to be nine points higher than it was in 2016. All the voters canvassed insisted they would not allow the virus to stop them voting. Most said it had made them more determined to vote, and that they had already made plans to protect themselves, by voting early by mail or in person. Polls suggested black voters are 25% more likely to vote early than they were in 2016. That could make it harder to suppress their votes. “I’m voting,” said Ethel Peele, on her doorstep in Williamston. “Even if I have to get me a cab, I’m voting.”

就算沒有低估新冠肺炎引發的不確定情況,也有跡象表明,病毒雖然會對黑人選民投票產生抑制影響,但并沒有緊張的民主黨人擔心的那么嚴重。最新調查數據的預測顯示,黑人投票率將比2016年提高9個百分點。所有被拉票的選民都堅稱,他們不會讓病毒阻止他們投票。大多數選民都表示,病毒讓他們更加堅定地投票,他們已經制定了保護自己的計劃,通過提前郵寄選票或親自投票。民調顯示,黑人選民提前投票的可能性比2016年高出25%。這可能會很難壓制黑人選民們的投票現象。“我要投票,”埃塞爾·皮爾在威廉斯頓的家門口說。“即使我得叫輛出租車,我也要投票?!?/p>

African-American voters are facing even more formidable obstacles than usual this year. Yet they are formidable voters. Most of the evidence suggests Mr Biden can count on them.

今年,非洲裔美國選民面臨著比以往更為艱巨的障礙。然而,他們是強大的選民。大多數證據表明,拜登可以指望他們。

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indicator ['indikeitə]

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n. 指示器,指示劑
[計算機] 指示符

 
suspicion [səs'piʃən]

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n. 猜疑,懷疑

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identity [ai'dentiti]

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n. 身份,一致,特征

 
candidate ['kændidit]

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n. 候選人,求職者

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determined [di'tə:mind]

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adj. 堅毅的,下定決心的

 
enthusiasm [in'θju:ziæzəm]

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n. 熱情,熱心;熱衷的事物

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measure ['meʒə]

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n. 措施,辦法,量度,尺寸
v. 測量,量

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evidence ['evidəns]

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n. 根據,證據
v. 證實,證明

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representative [repri'zentətiv]

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adj. 代表性的,代議制的,典型的
n. 代

 
randomly ['rændəmli]

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