評論
打印
'Europe's last dictatorship' faces challenge from a novice
“歐洲最后一個專政國家”面臨新手挑戰
Europe's longest-serving leader, Alexander Lukashenko, is facing an unprecedented challenge
8月9日，參加白俄羅斯總統競選，謀求第6屆任期之際，
as he runs for a sixth term as President of Belarus in elections on Aug.9.
歐洲地區任職時間最長的領導人亞歷山大·盧卡申科陷入了前所未有的挑戰。
A former teacher with no political experience, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya has emerged as his main rival, pledging to restore democracy.
毫無政治經驗的前任教師斯維特拉娜·蒂哈諾夫斯卡婭成了他的主要競爭對手，前者立誓要恢復民主。
"For the first time in his 26-year rule, Lukashenko knows the majority don't support him," says Aleksandr Feduta, a former aide to the incumbent.
“盧卡申科執政26年來，第一次發現自己失去了多數民眾的支持，”現任總統前助手亞歷山大·費杜塔說。
BELORUSSIAN BULLY
白俄羅斯霸主
Lukashenko has ruled the former Soviet republic of 9.5 million people since 1994.
自1994年以來，盧卡申科一直統治著這個擁有950萬人口的前蘇聯共和國。
His regime was dubbed "Europe's last dictatorship" by President George W. Bush in 2005.
2005年，其政權被喬治·W·布什總統冠上了“歐洲最后的專制政權”之名。
He has jailed opposition leaders, repressed independent opinion polls and held elections deemed "severely flawed" by the European Parliament.
他監禁反對派領導人，鎮壓獨立民意調查，舉行的選舉也被歐洲議會視為“存在嚴重缺陷”的選舉。
Now, anger has mounted over his mishandling of the COVID-19 pandemic (he dubbed it a "psychosis" that could be cured by vodka),
如今，他應對新冠肺炎疫情應對不當（他將這一病毒稱之為伏特加就能治愈的“精神病”），（加之）白俄羅斯經濟十年不見起色，
a decade of economic stagnation and financial dependence on neighboring Russia, which many citizens see as a threat to sovereignty.
靠著鄰國俄羅斯才維持到今天，而不少公民都認為后者對白俄羅斯的主權是一大威脅，激起的民憤愈演愈烈。
ROOKIE'S ROAD
新手之路
Tikhanovskaya entered the race when her husband Sergei Tikhanovski, a popular YouTuber who led rallies against the regime, was jailed in May.
丈夫謝爾蓋·蒂哈諾夫斯基，這位YouTube網紅曾發動反對盧卡申科政權的集會，便于今年五月被判入獄，之后，蒂哈諾夫斯卡婭便加入了競選行列。
Backed by opposition figures, Tikhanovskaya has brought record crowds to rally in support of her three pledges:
在反對派人物的支持下，蒂哈諾夫斯卡婭召集了超前規模的民眾支持她的三個承諾：
to free political prisoners; reverse authoritarianism; and run new, free elections within six months.
釋放政治犯；推翻專制主義（政府）；在六個月內舉行自由的選舉。
Police have responded with heavy-handed tactics, arresting more than 1,000 protesters, according to the Minsk-based humanrights group Viasna.
據總部位于明斯克的人權組織Viasna透露，白俄羅斯警方隨后實施高壓策略，逮捕了1000多名抗議者。
NO CONTEST
零競爭
The incumbent will almost certainly claim victory through a fraudulent election with vote rigging and ballot stuffing, analysts say.
分析人士稱，現任總統幾乎肯定會通過操縱選票、一人多投等選舉舞弊操作攫取勝利。
But his battles won’t end there.
然而，他的戰斗并不會就此結束。
Protesters have no intention of backing down, says Matthew Frear, an expert on Belarus at Leiden University,
萊頓大學白俄羅斯問題專家馬修·弗里爾表示，抗議者無意讓步，
and a weakened Lukashenko will find it far more difficult to resist the Kremlin’s influence:
屆時，即便連任成功，式微的盧卡申科也會發現，日后抗拒克里姆林宮的難度會大大增加：
"If he cracks down on dissent he will lose the chance of turning to the West, leaving him with no choice but to work with Moscow."
“如果他鎮壓異見人士，他就會失去向西方尋求幫助的機會，這樣一來，除了與莫斯科合作，他別無選擇。”
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