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The Next Wave
下一波浪潮
Rural America may be letting down its guard just as the virus hits
病毒剛剛來襲，美國農村似乎就已放松警惕
By Vera Bergengruen
文/維拉·伯根魯恩
It's cattle-branding season in the panhandle of Nebraska, but this spring things look different.
現在正值內布拉斯加州的狹長地帶給牛打烙印的季節，不過，今年的形勢似乎有些不同尋常。
Usually, one of the biggest social events of the year in a state where livestock makes up two-thirds of farm revenue, brandings have been cut down to the essentials:
尋常的時候，打烙印都是這個畜牧業占到了農業收入2/3的州一年之中最為盛大的社交活動之一，今年，這一活動已經一切從簡：
no children, no older crew members, and bag lunches instead of community gatherings.
沒有孩子在一旁觀摩，沒有老一輩的把式在一旁指揮，大桌的宴席也變成了一個個的午餐包。
"This is not the year to have your daughter's friend from the city out to experience a branding," a local news article warned.
“今年可不是邀請你女兒的朋友從城里來鄉下觀摩打烙印的年份，”當地一篇新聞告誡稱。
"Not taking precautions can mean the difference between life and death for some loved ones."
“不做好預防可能就意味著要從此與你心愛之人陰陽相隔。”
COVID-19 is not yet widely visible across the roughly 15,000-sq.-mile region,
幅員大約1.5萬平方英里的內布拉斯加州內似乎尚未出現大規模的爆發，
which has only 75 confirmed cases as of May 12, but the danger of the pandemic is very real,
截至5月12號一共才75例，不過，大流行的威力倒是十分真實的，
says Kim Engel, the director of the Panhandle Public Health District.
狹長地帶公共衛生區主任金·恩格爾說道。
There are only 31 ventilators for 87,000 people here,
人口多達8.7萬人的該地區只有31臺呼吸機可供使用，
so even a small spike could quickly overwhelm the local health system.
因此，即使是一個小高峰也能迅速讓當地衛生系統變得不堪重負。
"We're still waiting for our peak," Engel says,
“我們還在等（疫情曲線的）峰值，”恩格爾說，
emphasizing that it won't look like the urban outbreaks that have dominated national headlines.
他強調說，即便當地真的出現峰值，也不會和霸占了各大頭條的城市疫情的峰值一樣。
"We're afraid we are really just starting on that upward curve."
“我們擔心的是，我們的（疫情）上升曲線現在才真正開了個頭。”
In mid-April, President Donald Trump declared that largely rural parts of the heartland were in the clear,
4月中旬時特朗普總統曾宣稱，美國心臟地帶周邊農村為主的地區是沒有危險的，
holding up regions like Engel's as ones that might reopen "literally tomorrow" because they looked "a lot different than New York."
為此他還舉例稱，一些地區，就像恩格爾所在的地區那樣的地區說不定“真的明天”就能重新開放了，因為它們看起來“和紐約大不一樣”。
Several governors who have resisted lengthy stay-at-home orders are wielding the lack of urban density as a reassurance.
拒絕長時間居家隔離命令的州長正在以當地并沒有城市擁擠為由安撫人心。
"It's so important not to turn on the news and look at New York City and think that that's what Lemmon, S.D., is going to face in a month,"
“極其重要的一點是，不要打開新聞看到紐約市的疫情就覺得一個月后南達科他州萊蒙市也會變成那個樣子，”
South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem said at an April 1 press conference.
南達科他州州長克里斯蒂·諾伊姆在4月1日的記者會上說道。
But as the country's leaders talk of reopening the shuttered economy,
然而，隨著國家領導層越來越多地談到重啟停滯的經濟，
it is precisely these regions of the U.S. that are among the most at risk.
美國的這些地區恰好就成了面臨風險最大的地區之一。
A TIME analysis of county-level COVID-19 cases shows that the virus is only just now arriving in much of rural America.
從《時代》周刊對縣級新冠病例所做的分析來看，新冠病毒目前才剛剛抵達美國大部分農村地區。
That means some of these sparsely populated areas could be letting down their guard just as the disease is about to hit.
這就意味著疫情才剛剛要來臨，一些人口稀少的地區就已經開始放松警惕了。
Just over one month ago, on April 1,
就在一個多月前，準確地說就是4月1日那天，
every single county in America with more than 100,000 residents had documented COVID-19 infections,
美國所有居民超10萬的郡縣都出現了新冠肺炎感染病例，
while just 1 in 4 of those with 9,000 or fewer people had a confirmed case.
而居民規模在9000甚至更少的地區中只有1/4的地區出現了確診病例。
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