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TED演講(視頻+MP3+雙語字幕):為什么智能統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)是打擊犯罪的關(guān)鍵(7)

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In the tool that we've built, what we did was we collected 1.5 million cases from all around the United States,

在這個已經(jīng)建立的這個工具里,我們收集了150萬個案件,來自美國各地,
from cities, from counties, from every single state in the country, the federal districts.
包括城市,縣,國內(nèi)的每個州,聯(lián)邦區(qū)。
And with those 1.5 million cases, which is the largest data set on pretrial in the United States today,
有了那150萬個案例,這是美國審判前最大的數(shù)據(jù)庫。
we were able to basically find that there were 900-plus risk factors that we could look at to try to figure out what mattered most.
截止到今天,我們基本上能夠找到我們可以查看的九百多個危險因素,試著找出最重要的問題。
And we found that there were nine specific things that mattered all across the country and that were the most highly predictive of risk.
我們發(fā)現(xiàn)具體有九件事在全國范圍內(nèi)都很重要,是可預(yù)測的最高風(fēng)險。
And so we built a universal risk assessment tool. And it looks like this. As you'll see, we put some information in,
于是我們建立了一種通用的風(fēng)險評估工具。它看起來就像這個。正如你所看到的,我們把一些信息列在上面,
but most of it is incredibly simple, it's easy to use, it focuses on things like the defendant's prior convictions,
但大多數(shù)都格外簡單,它使用起來很容易,它側(cè)重的方面是被告的前科,
whether they've been sentenced to incarceration, whether they've engaged in violence before,
他們是否曾被判處監(jiān)禁,他們是否曾被卷入過暴力事件,
whether they've even failed to come back to court. And with this tool, we can predict three things.
他們是否甚至沒能回到法庭。使用此工具,我們可以預(yù)測三件事。
First, whether or not someone will commit a new crime if they're released.
第一,如果被釋放的話,他們是否會再次犯罪。
Second, for the first time, and I think this is incredibly important,
第二,我第一次覺得,這一點非常重要,

暴力風(fēng)險

we can predict whether someone will commit an act of violence if they're released.

如果被釋放的話,我們可以預(yù)測他們是否會進行暴力活動。
And that's the single most important thing that judges say when you talk to them.
當(dāng)你向他們問話的時候,法官說這是最重要的一件事。
And third, we can predict whether someone will come back to court.
第三,我們可以預(yù)測他們是否會回到法庭。
And every single judge in the United States of America can use it, because it's been created on a universal data set.
美國的任何一名法官都可以使用它,因為它是由通用的數(shù)據(jù)庫制成的。
What judges see if they run the risk assessment tool is this -- it's a dashboard.
如果他們使用了這個風(fēng)險評估工具你就會看到這個--一個評分板。
At the top, you see the New Criminal Activity Score, six of course being the highest,
在頂部,是新的刑事犯罪活動評分,六當(dāng)然是最高分,
and then in the middle you see, "Elevated risk of violence."
然后在中間你可以看到“增長的暴力風(fēng)險”
What that says is that this person is someone who has an elevated risk of violence that the judge should look twice at.
說的是,這個人進行暴力行為的概率有所升高,這是法官應(yīng)該注意的重點。
And then, towards the bottom, you see the Failure to Appear Score,
然后在底部,你看到的是未能出庭的分?jǐn)?shù),
which again is the likelihood that someone will come back to court.
這也是判斷此人會回到法庭的可能性。

重點單詞   查看全部解釋    
predictive [pri'diktiv]

想一想再看

adj. 預(yù)言的,預(yù)兆的

 
prior ['praiə]

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adj. 優(yōu)先的,更重要的,在前的
adv.

 
assessment [ə'sesmənt]

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n. 估價,評估

 
score [skɔ:]

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n. 得分,刻痕,二十,樂譜
vt. 記分,刻

聯(lián)想記憶
universal [.ju:ni'və:səl]

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adj. 普遍的,通用的,宇宙的,全體的,全世界的

 
predict [pri'dikt]

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v. 預(yù)知,預(yù)言,預(yù)報,預(yù)測

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likelihood ['laiklihud]

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n. 可能性

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figure ['figə]

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n. 圖形,數(shù)字,形狀; 人物,外形,體型
v

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defendant [di'fendənt]

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n. 被告

聯(lián)想記憶
violence ['vaiələns]

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n. 暴力,猛烈,強暴,暴行

 
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