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In rich countries, most of the economic effort has been directed towards calming financial markets. On March 3rd America’s Federal Reserve cut rates a fortnight before its monetary-policy meeting, and by an unusually large half-a-percentage point. The central banks of Australia, Canada and Indonesia have also acted. The Bank of England and the European Central Bank are both expected to loosen policy, too.
在富裕國家，大部分的經(jīng)濟(jì)努力都是為了穩(wěn)定金融市場。3月3日，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)在其貨幣政策會(huì)議前兩周下調(diào)了利率，并以異乎尋常的幅度下調(diào)了0.5個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。澳大利亞、加拿大和印度尼西亞的央行也采取了行動(dòng)。預(yù)計(jì)英國央行和歐洲央行也將放松政策。
Yet this slowdown is not a textbook downturn. Lower rates will ease borrowing costs and shore up sentiment, but no amount of cheap credit can stop people falling ill. Monetary policy cannot repair broken supply chains or tempt anxious people into venturing out. These obvious limitations help explain why stockmarkets failed to revive after the Fed’s cut.
然而，這種放緩并不是教科書上的低迷。低利率將降低借貸成本，提振市場人氣，但再多的廉價(jià)信貸也無法阻止人們生病。貨幣政策無法修復(fù)打亂的供應(yīng)鏈，也無法誘使焦慮的人們?nèi)ッ半U(xiǎn)。這些明顯的限制有助于解釋為什么美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)降息后股市沒有復(fù)蘇。
Better to support the economy directly, by helping affected people and firms pay bills and borrow money if they need it. For individuals, the priority should be paying for health care and providing paid sick leave. The Trump administration is considering paying some hospital bills for those with the virus. Japan’s government will cover the wages of parents who stay at home to care for children or sick relatives; Singapore’s will help cab drivers and bosses whose employees are struck down. More such ideas will be needed.
更好的辦法是直接支持經(jīng)濟(jì)，幫助受影響的民眾和企業(yè)支付賬單，并在他們需要時(shí)借錢。針對個(gè)人，政府的首要任務(wù)應(yīng)該是支付醫(yī)療保健費(fèi)用和提供帶薪病假。特朗普政府正在考慮為那些感染病毒的人支付一部分醫(yī)院費(fèi)用。日本政府將為那些在家照顧孩子或生病親人的父母支付工資；新加坡將幫助出租車司機(jī)和雇員感染病毒的老板。我們需要更多這樣的政策。
For companies the big challenge will be liquidity. And although this shock is unlike the financial crisis, when the poison spread from within, that period did show how to cope with a liquidity crunch. Firms that lose revenues will still face tax, wage and interest bills. Easing that burden, for as long as the epidemic lasts, can avoid needless bankruptcies and lay-offs. Temporary relief on tax and wage costs can help. Employers can be encouraged to choose shorter hours for all their staff over lay-offs for some of them. Authorities could fund banks to lend to firms that are suffering, as they did during the financial crisis and as China is doing today. China is also ordering banks to go easy on delinquent borrowers. Western governments cannot do that, but it is in the interest of lenders everywhere to show forbearance towards borrowers facing a cash squeeze, much as banks did to public-sector employees during America’s government shutdown in 2018-19.
針對企業(yè)，最大的挑戰(zhàn)將是流動(dòng)性。盡管這次沖擊不同于金融危機(jī)，但是當(dāng)病毒從內(nèi)部擴(kuò)散的時(shí)期確實(shí)顯示了如何應(yīng)對流動(dòng)性緊縮。失去收入的公司仍將面臨稅收、工資和利息費(fèi)用。只要疫情持續(xù)，減輕這種負(fù)擔(dān)就可以避免不必要的破產(chǎn)和裁員。暫時(shí)減免稅收和工資成本可能會(huì)有所幫助。可以鼓勵(lì)雇主縮短所有員工的工作時(shí)間，而不是解雇部分員工。政府可以為銀行提供資金，向遭受危機(jī)的企業(yè)提供貸款，正如在金融危機(jī)期間所做的那樣，就像中國現(xiàn)在所做的那樣。中國還要求銀行對拖欠貸款的借款人寬容一些。西方政府做不到這一點(diǎn)，但是，對面臨現(xiàn)金短缺的借款人表現(xiàn)出寬容符合世界各地貸款機(jī)構(gòu)的利益，就像銀行在2018-19年美國政府停擺期間對公共部門雇員所做的那樣。
There is a tension. Health policy aims to spare hospitals by lowering the epidemic’s peak so that it is less intense, if longer-lasting. Economic policy, by contrast, aims to minimise how long factories are shut and staff absent. Eventually governments will have to strike a balance. Today, however, they are so far behind the epidemic that the priority must be to slow its spread.
存在一種張力。衛(wèi)生政策的目標(biāo)是通過降低疫情高峰來讓醫(yī)院有更多位置，這樣如果持續(xù)時(shí)間更長，就能減輕疫情嚴(yán)重程度。相比之下，經(jīng)濟(jì)政策的目標(biāo)是盡量縮短工廠關(guān)閉和員工缺席的時(shí)間。最終，政府必須尋求平衡點(diǎn)。然而如今政府舉措還遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)落后于流行病，所以當(dāng)務(wù)之急必須是減緩病毒傳播。
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