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The first task is to get manpower and money to hospitals. China drafted in 40,000 health workers to Hubei province. Britain may bring medics out of retirement. This week the World Bank made $12bn and the IMF $50bn available for covid-19. The Global Fund, which fights diseases like malaria and TB, said countries can switch grants. In America Congress is allocating $8.3bn of funding. The country has some of the world’s most advanced hospitals, but its fragmented health system has little spare capacity. Much more money will be needed.
第一個任務是為醫(yī)院籌集人力和資金。中國向湖北省抽調了4萬名醫(yī)護人員。英國可能會讓退休的醫(yī)護人員重返工作崗位。本周，世界銀行和國際貨幣基金組織分別為抗擊covid-19提供了120億美元和500億美元。抗擊瘧疾和結核病等疾病的全球基金表示，各國可以改變資助方式。美國國會正在撥款83億美元。美國擁有世界上最先進的醫(yī)院，但其支離破碎的衛(wèi)生系統(tǒng)幾乎沒有備用生產力。需要更多資金。
Just as important is to slow the spread of the disease by getting patients to come forward for testing when outbreaks are small and possible to contain. They may be deterred in many countries, including much of America, where 28m people are without health coverage and many more have to pay for a large slug of their own treatment. People also need to isolate themselves if they have mild symptoms, as about 80% of them will. Here sick pay matters, because many people cannot afford to miss work. In America a quarter of employees have no access to paid sick leave and only scattered states and cities offer sickness benefits. Often the self-employed, a fifth of Italy’s workforce, do not qualify. One study found that, in epidemics, guaranteed sick pay cuts the spread of flu in America by 40%.
同樣重要的是，在疫情規(guī)模不大且可能得到控制的情況下，要讓患者主動進行檢測，從而減緩疾病的傳播。在許多國家，包括美國的大部分地區(qū)，人們可能會望而卻步，因為有2800萬人沒有醫(yī)療保險，更多人不得不為自己的治療買單。如果有輕微癥狀，人們也需要自我隔離，大約80%的人能做到。在這種情況下，帶薪病假很重要，因為許多人負擔不起失業(yè)。在美國，四分之一的員工沒有帶薪病假，只有一些零零散散的州和城市提供病假福利。通常情況下，占意大利勞動力五分之一的私營企業(yè)不符合條件。一項研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，在流行病期間，保證帶薪病假將使流感在美國的傳播減少40%。
Sick pay also helps soften the blow to demand which, along with a supply shock and a general panic, is hitting economies. These three factors, as China shows, can have a dramatic effect on output. Manufacturing activity there sank in February to its lowest level since managers were first surveyed in 2004. In the quarter to March the economy as a whole could shrink for the first time since the death of Mao Zedong. The OECD expects global growth this year to be its slowest since 2009. Modelling by academics at the Australian National University suggests that GDP in America and Europe would be 2% lower than it would have been in the absence of a pandemic and perhaps as much as 8% lower if the rate of deaths is many times higher than expected. Financial markets are pricing in fear. The S&P 500 has fallen by 8% from its peak on February 19th. Issuance of corporate debt on Wall Street has more or less stopped. The yield on ten-year Treasuries dipped below 1% for the first time ever.
需求下降再加上供應沖擊和普遍的恐慌對經濟造成打擊，帶薪病假也有助于減輕這種影響。正如中國所顯示的，這三個因素可能對產出產生巨大影響。2月份制造業(yè)活動水平降至自2004年首次對經理人進行調查以來的最低水平。在第三季度，中國經濟整體可能出現(xiàn)自毛澤東逝世后的首次萎縮。經合組織預計，今年全球經濟增速將達到2009年以來最低。澳大利亞國立大學學者建立的模型顯示，美國和歐洲的GDP將比沒有流行病的情況下低2%，如果死亡率比預期高出許多倍，則可能低8%。金融市場在恐懼中定價。標準普爾500指數從2月19日的最高點下跌了8%。華爾街的公司債券發(fā)行或多或少已經停止。十年期國債的收益率有史以來第一次跌至1%以下。
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