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來源于3月7日刊《社論》版塊
The right medicine for the world economy
世界經(jīng)濟的良藥
The pandemic threatens an economic crisis as well as a health crisis. Both need fixing
流行病威脅著經(jīng)濟危機和健康危機。兩者都需要解決
It is not a fair fight, but it is a fight that many countries will face all the same. Left to itself, the covid-19 pandemic doubles every five to six days. When you get your next issue of The Economist the outbreak could in theory have infected twice as many people as today. Governments can slow that ferocious pace, but bureaucratic time is not the same as virus time. And at the moment governments across the world are being left flat-footed.
這場戰(zhàn)斗并不公平，但這場戰(zhàn)斗許多國家都終將面對。如果任其發(fā)展，每過5到6天，covid-19流行病就會擴大一倍。當你看到下一期《經(jīng)濟學(xué)家》雜志時，疫情爆發(fā)理論上感染的人數(shù)可能是今天的兩倍。政府可以放慢這一驚人的速度，但政府舉措沒有跟上病毒發(fā)展速度。
The disease is in 85 countries and territories, up from 50 a week earlier. Over 95,000 cases and 3,200 deaths have been recorded. Yet our analysis, based on patterns of travel to and from China, suggests that many countries which have spotted tens of cases have hundreds more circulating undetected. Iran, South Korea and Italy are exporting the virus. America has registered 159 cases in 14 states but as of March 1st it had, indefensibly, tested just 472 people when South Korea was testing 10,000 a day. Now that America is looking, it is sure to find scores of infections—and possibly unearth a runaway epidemic.
目前已有85個國家和地區(qū)出現(xiàn)這種疾病，而一周前只有50個。記錄在案的病例超過9.5萬例，死亡3200例。然而，我們基于來往中國的旅行模式進行的分析表明，許多國家已經(jīng)發(fā)現(xiàn)了數(shù)十例，還有數(shù)百例在未被發(fā)現(xiàn)的情況下傳播。伊朗、韓國和意大利都在輸出病毒。美國已經(jīng)在14個州登記了159例病例，但截至3月1日，美國僅對472人進行了檢測，而韓國當時每天檢測1萬人。現(xiàn)在美國正在尋找，肯定會發(fā)現(xiàn)大量的感染，并可能發(fā)展為失控的流行病。
Wherever the virus takes hold, containing it and mitigating its effects will involve more than doctors and paramedics. The World Health Organisation has distilled lessons from China for how health-care systems should cope. The same thinking is needed across the government, especially over how to protect people and companies as supply chains fracture and the worried and the ill shut themselves away.
無論病毒在哪里出現(xiàn)，遏制病毒并減輕其影響不僅僅只有醫(yī)護人員就行了。世界衛(wèi)生組織已經(jīng)從中國身上總結(jié)出應(yīng)對衛(wèi)生保健體系的經(jīng)驗教訓(xùn)。整個政府都需要同樣的思考，尤其是在供應(yīng)鏈斷裂、憂慮者和患者之際，如何為個人和企業(yè)提供保護。
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